Military tensions in the Persian Gulf shot up again Thursday, Jan. 26, after Dubai police commander Gen. Dhahi Khalfan said an imminent Gulf war cannot be ruled out and first signs are already apparent. "The world will not let Iran block Hormuz, but Tehran can narrow the strait to the maximum," he said.  Saudi Arabia and Dubai doubt  the US Navy and Gulf forces can keep Hormuz open at all times. A war of attrition is therefore expected to unfold from February to July.

With its latest purchases from Washington, the Saudi Air Force will have more US fighter-bombers of more advanced models than the Israeli Air Force as well as a substantial influx of sophisticated Eurofighter Typhoons. Deep concern over this was recently relayed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. Israel acted on the quiet in view of Gulf anxiety over Iranian threats.

A Hizballah cell backed by intelligence from Tehran and external Iranian terror cells in Turkey, Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, was captured in Baku on Jan. 19 by Azerbaijan's National Security Ministry (MNS) officers, who thwarted attacks on the Israeli embassy and the Habad center as well as on Israeli and local personages. Two cell members reside in Azerbaijan; its Tehran-based leader was recruited by Iranian intelligence. This was the first known instance of Iranian intelligence and a Hizballah cell cooperating for a terror operation.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey have alerted Washington to intelligence reports that Iranian Al Qods Brigades operatives are heading their way to blow up oil installations and American targets. They ask how the US intends to respond. For the second time in a week, a US spokesman Washington disclosed Jan 17 that Al Qods commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani secretly visited Damascus. debkafile reports: Part of his mission was to synchronize these Al Qods attacks with backing for Assad's crackdown on protest.

The new round of European sanctions will not stop Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned in a radio interview Tuesday, Jan. 24.  debkafile: The Obama administration and EU delayed oil sanctions to July 1 for back-channel contacts to ripen and produce a fresh round of nuclear talks with Tehran. Barak stressed Israel's hand was always near the trigger and advised taking "very seriously" Israel's military option which had not been taken off the table.

India is the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to pay for its purchases in gold instead of the US dollar, debkafile reports exclusively.  Our sources expect China to follow suit. India and China take about one million barrels per day, or 40 percent of Iran's total exports of 2.5 million bpd. Both will therefore substantially cushion the impact on the Iranian economy of the European decision of Monday, Jan. 22, to impose an oil embargo on Iran and freeze the assets of its central bank.

Three weeks after Tehran threatened action against any US aircraft carrier entering the Strait of Hormuz, Washington made two moves: US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta disclosed Sunday, Jan. 22, that the USS Enterprise Carrier Strike Group would steam through the strait in March; a few hours later, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier transited Hormuz without incident. Defusing the Hormuz dispute set the scene for resumed US-Iranian nuclear talks and the suspension of tough sanctions as Israel was preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised visiting Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey Friday, Jan. 20 that the time for action against Iran was now - for two reasons: First, Iran has passed the point of no return for developing a nuclear weapon; second, the US-led embargo on Iranian oil is not catching on. debkafile: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey and the European Union members which buy 85 percent of Iran's exported crude are dilly-dallying over a ban.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed Thursday night, Jan. 19 that Iran had opted to become a nuclear state.  He called for action to stop Iran before it is too late and iran completed the construction of a nuclear weapon. . His statement at the end of talks in Holland gave Gen Martin Dempsey, on his first visit to Israel as Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the message he will be asked to take back to President Barack Obama.   

New revelations from US intelligence sources confirm day by day that Iran has attained a nuclear weapon capability: Implosion experiments at Parchin were uncovered Sunday; its six-year old ability to build detonators for triggering a nuclear chain reaction, reported Monday. Stuxnet  which invaded Natanz in June 2010 delayed but did not derail Iran's forward march towards a weapon. The US president and Israeli prime minister vowed never to let Iran attain a nuclear capability. So what are they going to do now?

A US and/or Israel strike against Iran suddenly looked tangible this week following a warning of its probability by a French diplomat and a large-scale Russian-Central Asian military exercise simulating Iranian retaliation for a hypothetical strike on US-owned Caspian oil fields. A British diplomat ending his term in Pyongyang quoted North Korean officials who told him that NATO would not have attacked Libya if Muammar Qaddafi had not given up his nuclear weapons. Tehran appears to have reached the same conclusion.