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Tue January 31, 2012
Breaking News
Russian Dep. FM Gennady Gatilov warns pushing Arab League's UN resolution is "path to civil war" • The resolution put before the UN Security Council Tuesday demands that Bashar Assad step aside for his deputy • Moscow is expected to defeat motion by veto • The White House: The Security Council must not let the violence in Syria go on • Hillary Clinton to attend meeting • The largest Syrian opposition group spurns Russian proposal for talks unless Assad steps down first • Iranian ground forces commander Brig. Gen. Pourdastan: America is fearful of attacking Iran • FM Salehi offered to extend nuclear watchdog inspectors' visit • Tehran claimed to have tested new laser-guided artillery shells and a new remotely piloted drone capable of carrying an 11-pound payload to an altitude of 10,000 feet • IAF commander Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan said he was concerned by the challenge Middle East armament posed to Israel's air force edge • Jan. 25 DEBKAfile reported exclusively Israel had voiced concern to Washington about the delivery of more advanced warplanes to Saudi Arabia than the IAF possessed •
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 30, 2012, 9:38 PM (GMT+02:00)
President Bashar Assad supported by his brother and cousin

President Bashar Assad Sunday, Jan. 30, pulled in the Syrian Republican Guard and the 4th armored division commanded by his brother Maher Assad from the north to Damascus, debkafile reports exclusively. He deployed them in battle positions in the capital for the first time following an intelligence tipoff that one of the armored division commanders had been won over by Western powers and persuaded to stage a coup d'etat in time for Tuesday's UN Security Council meeting on Syria.

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Secret US Military Buildup on Two Islands
Up to 100,000 US troops begin to mass within reach of Iran.
more
Saudis Brace for Iranian Reprisal
They calculate the oil embargo is already costing Iran 15-20% of its sales.
more
US-Iranian Exchanges Are Slow
Secret diplomacy limps along via Baghdad, Turkey and Vienna.
more






Headlines
US foresees May as tentative date for clash with Iran. Floating SEALs base for Gulf
DEBKAfile Special Report
January 29, 2012, 12:53 PM (GMT+02:00)
USS Ponce - future SEALs Persian Gulf platform

A hurried decision not to de-commission the USS Ponce helicopter marine carrier after duty in Libya - but to refit it for deployment in the Persian Gulf by May as a floating base for SEAL commando teams - was confirmed by the US Pentagon and Navy Sunday, Dec. 29. This base will expand the commandos' range in coastal areas, especially against Iranian speedboats, and support counter-measures against mines which Iran threatens to plant in the Strait of Hormuz for the US-EU oil embargo. 

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War of attrition brewing with Iran over Gulf oil routes
DEBKAfile Special Report
January 26, 2012, 10:50 PM (GMT+02:00)
Strait of Hormuz

Military tensions in the Persian Gulf shot up again Thursday, Jan. 26, after Dubai police commander Gen. Dhahi Khalfan said an imminent Gulf war cannot be ruled out and first signs are already apparent. "The world will not let Iran block Hormuz, but Tehran can narrow the strait to the maximum," he said.  Saudi Arabia and Dubai doubt  the US Navy and Gulf forces can keep Hormuz open at all times. A war of attrition is therefore expected to unfold from February to July.

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Jerusalem concerned: Saudi Air Force to outnumber Israel's advanced US jet fleet
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
January 25, 2012, 10:27 PM (GMT+02:00)
Saudi Air Force F-15SA fighter-bomber

With its latest purchases from Washington, the Saudi Air Force will have more US fighter-bombers of more advanced models than the Israeli Air Force as well as a substantial influx of sophisticated Eurofighter Typhoons. Deep concern over this was recently relayed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. Israel acted on the quiet in view of Gulf anxiety over Iranian threats.

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More articles below
Azerbaijan foils Iranian-Hizballah terror strike against Israel targets and Habad
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
January 24, 2012, 10:13 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Hizballah   Iranian terror   Israel   Azerbaijan 
Habad Baku leaders targeted by Iranian-Hizballah terrorists

A Hizballah cell backed by intelligence from Tehran and external Iranian terror cells in Turkey, Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, was captured in Baku on Jan. 19 by Azerbaijan's National Security Ministry (MNS) officers, who thwarted attacks on the Israeli embassy and the Habad center as well as on Israeli and local personages. Two cell members reside in Azerbaijan; its Tehran-based leader was recruited by Iranian intelligence. This was the first known instance of Iranian intelligence and a Hizballah cell cooperating for a terror operation.

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Barak slams EU oil embargo's delay to July. Israel's hand ever near trigger
DEBKAfile Special Report
January 24, 2012, 3:10 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak

The new round of European sanctions will not stop Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned in a radio interview Tuesday, Jan. 24.  debkafile: The Obama administration and EU delayed oil sanctions to July 1 for back-channel contacts to ripen and produce a fresh round of nuclear talks with Tehran. Barak stressed Israel's hand was always near the trigger and advised taking "very seriously" Israel's military option which had not been taken off the table.

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India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. Oil and gold markets stunned
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
January 23, 2012, 5:57 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  India   China   sanctions   Iranian oil   European Union 
Iranian oil for India

India is the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to pay for its purchases in gold instead of the US dollar, debkafile reports exclusively.  Our sources expect China to follow suit. India and China take about one million barrels per day, or 40 percent of Iran's total exports of 2.5 million bpd. Both will therefore substantially cushion the impact on the Iranian economy of the European decision of Monday, Jan. 22, to impose an oil embargo on Iran and freeze the assets of its central bank.

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The USS Abraham Lincoln transits Hormuz. Scene set for US-Iranian talks
DEBKAfile Special Report
January 23, 2012, 3:17 AM (GMT+02:00)
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta aboard the USS Enterprise

Three weeks after Tehran threatened action against any US aircraft carrier entering the Strait of Hormuz, Washington made two moves: US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta disclosed Sunday, Jan. 22, that the USS Enterprise Carrier Strike Group would steam through the strait in March; a few hours later, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier transited Hormuz without incident. Defusing the Hormuz dispute set the scene for resumed US-Iranian nuclear talks and the suspension of tough sanctions as Israel was preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

 

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Nuclear Iran is past its point-of-no-return, yet oil sanctions remain on paper
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
January 21, 2012, 3:07 PM (GMT+02:00)
US Gen. Martin Dempsey received by Binyamin Netanyahu with friendly discord

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised visiting Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey Friday, Jan. 20 that the time for action against Iran was now - for two reasons: First, Iran has passed the point of no return for developing a nuclear weapon; second, the US-led embargo on Iranian oil is not catching on. debkafile: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey and the European Union members which buy 85 percent of Iran's exported crude are dilly-dallying over a ban.

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Netanyahu: Iran has decided to become a nuclear state. Action needed before it is too late.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
January 19, 2012, 6:56 PM (GMT+02:00)
US top soldier, Gen. Martin Dempsey with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed Thursday night, Jan. 19 that Iran had opted to become a nuclear state.  He called for action to stop Iran before it is too late and iran completed the construction of a nuclear weapon. . His statement at the end of talks in Holland gave Gen Martin Dempsey, on his first visit to Israel as Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the message he will be asked to take back to President Barack Obama.   

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly    A sampling from past issues
Khamenei: Immovable Barrier to Nuclear Policy Change
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #524
January 12, 2012
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

A US intelligence report has advised Barack Obama that Iran may be ripe for regime change owing to the bitter infighting at the top and a plunging economy which may herald famine at around election time in March. But Tehran will not budge on its radical military and nuclear policies so long as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in charge.

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Egypt's Generals Prepare to Bolt
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #523
January 5, 2012
Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi

The military rulers of Egypt are upending President Barack Obama's plans for Egypt by bringing forward the handover of power to the Muslim parliamentary majority - without providing for the framing of a democratic constitution and the election of a moderate president. To save the day, Washington hopes to handpick an acceptable president. Omar Suleiman is mentioned.

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Who's in Charge in Tripoli?
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #523
January 5, 2012

Libyans see their revolution falling off track. Their transitional leader Abdel-Jalil predicts a slide into civil war - or worse, former rebel militias are fighting it out in the streets, pro-Qaddafi forces are returning to the attack, and oil deals are transacted by faceless ministers who offer no accounting to the citizenry.

Many believe "the Islamists" are in control. But no one knows which Islamists.  

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Analysis
How the US and Israel let Iran get a nuclear arms capablity
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
November 7, 2011, 5:03 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iran nuclear   Stuxnet   US   Israel   IAEA 
Implosion experiments for nuclear bomb detonation

New revelations from US intelligence sources confirm day by day that Iran has attained a nuclear weapon capability: Implosion experiments at Parchin were uncovered Sunday; its six-year old ability to build detonators for triggering a nuclear chain reaction, reported Monday. Stuxnet  which invaded Natanz in June 2010 delayed but did not derail Iran's forward march towards a weapon. The US president and Israeli prime minister vowed never to let Iran attain a nuclear capability. So what are they going to do now?

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A military war of nerves against Iran: The US leads, Israel and UK go along
DEBKAfile Special Report
November 2, 2011, 10:46 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iran nuclear   Israel   US   Britain   NATO 
HMS Astute: British nuclear attack submarine

A rush of military events was orchestrated Wednesday, Nov. 2, to persuade Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation unless it gives up its drive for a nuclear weapon - depending on President Barack Obama's okay. Israel would not participate in a US-led NATO strike on Iran but reserve its armed forces to defend the home front, guard the assault forces against Iran's allies and serve as a strategic reserve.

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France: Iran faces military strike. Russia practices Iranian reprisal
DEBKAfile Special Report
September 28, 2011, 2:03 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Iran   France   Britain   US   Iranian Navy   Russia 
Russian-Central Asian armies exercise defense of US Caspian oil fields

A US and/or Israel strike against Iran suddenly looked tangible this week following a warning of its probability by a French diplomat and a large-scale Russian-Central Asian military exercise simulating Iranian retaliation for a hypothetical strike on US-owned Caspian oil fields. A British diplomat ending his term in Pyongyang quoted North Korean officials who told him that NATO would not have attacked Libya if Muammar Qaddafi had not given up his nuclear weapons. Tehran appears to have reached the same conclusion.

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Egypt uncovers Libyan SA-24 anti-air missiles and sea mines bound for Gaza
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
September 26, 2011, 2:14 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags:  Hamas   Hizballah   Israel   Iran   Libyan rebels   arms traffic 
SA-24 infrared missile from Libya to Gaza

Helped by highly sophisticated contraband weapons smuggled out of Libya, Iran and Hizballah are getting the Palestinian Hamas equipped for another round of hostilities with Israel. debkafile's military sources report that Sunday, Sept. 25, Egyptian security forces homed in near Ismailia on a large half-empty cache of advanced Libyan SA-24 anti-air infrared missiles (a version of the US Stinger). They grant Hamas high-, medium- and low-altitude capabilities. Many of the empty crates had also contained sea mines.  

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