Barack Obama is winning his Herculean battle to stave off a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites until he is safely reelected in November. His policy of “non-solutions for unseen problems” is working just fine: Iran keeps up its nuclear bomb momentum, and al Qaeda expands its foothold in Egypt, Syria and Yemen. Israel and its military option are shoved out of sight.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly in its coming issue out next Friday analyses Obama’s chances of maintaining this posture for seven months.  To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly, click here.

A senior official in Tokyo announced Wednesday, May 23, that the Japanese government will seek parliamentary approval for a bill allowing Japanese firms to insure tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia if European insurers refused to do so. The nuclear talks between the six powers and Iran in Baghdad Wednesday, instead of taking place under the shadow of tougher sanctions as Israel expected, saw the toughest one, the oil embargo, falling apart. Russian and British officials began raising the prospect of an Iran-Israel war.

Syrian rebels have received their first “third generation” anti-tank weapons, 9K115-2 Metis-M and Kornet E, debkafile reports.  They are supplied by Saudi and Qatari intelligence agencies following a secret message from President Barack Obama upping the military stake in the effort to oust Assad. It is hoped that the sight of blazing tanks will undermine morale in the Syrian army and regime. Ankara was also advised to start providing Syrian rebels with IEDs for roadside bombing of government vehicles.

Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have decided to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test, debkafile’s sources report. They are going along with it despite reservations after receiving assurances from the White House that Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran. Saturday, debkafile exclusively revealed the eight-point interim deal the US put before Iran.

Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Thursday 17, that a nuclear Iran would change the whole Middle East landscape and “we must do something to block” what he called “a catastrophe.” The impending agreement would permit Iran “to deceive the world” and continuing building a nuclear bomb. Western diplomatic sources disclose that Iran has moved this process forward by starting in mid-negotiations to instal new centrifuge cascades at Fordo to double or triple near-weapons grade enriched uranium production.

Special operations units of the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Tuesday, May 14, began a two-day practice of offensive tactics, for the first time dropping large-scale forces from the air deep behind enemy lines. The many war games Iran has conducted until now focused on defenses of strategic and nuclear locations and repelling invaders. It began on the same day as the US-led multination nation special forces exercise in Jordan and was staged deliberately near the Afghan border.

A new US battle strategy against Iran (ASB) hinges on tightly coordinated air, land, sea, undersea, space and cyberspace capabilities for defeating closure of the (Hormuz) strait, cyber attack, mines, cruise and ballistic missiles. US and Israeli Air Forces, Navies and their special forces are operating on the ABS concept after an Israeli drill which ended in its navy setting up a dense defensive line against enemy sea assault by unconventional weapons. Monday, a large US amphibious marine vessel anchored in Jedda.

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. debkafile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

The 60 Iranian experts employed by 11 different Iranian agencies controlled by the Iranian Defense Ministry (under the IRGC) were revealed by names and addresses Saturday, May 12, by the opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI) in the first ever detailed exposure of a highly secret, central Iranian organization working on building a nuclear weapon. debkafile: Through the secret US-Iranian track, Khamenei told Barack Obama that Fordow will not be shut down. Jerusalem: The evolving US-Iran deal is “bad for Israel.”

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, debkafile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. debkafile: Moscow and Tehran suspect that the US- Israeli-Greek air-naval exercise codenamed Noble Dina which is in progress across an unusually broad stretch of E. Mediterranean is meant to rehearse war action in the Persian Gulf.