After three months of exploring every possible diplomatic channel to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program, Obama enlisted Moscow’s help for getting messages to and from Tehran. But meanwhile his diplomatic network had become a maze in which the Baghdad talks lost their objective.

The bid to replace toppled Arab regimes with pro-Western Arab democracies was a complete flop, the US and NATO intelligence chiefs meeting secretly in the third week of September agreed. In Libya, in particular the NATO operation on the side of the rebels opened the door for elements identified ...

The consensus of US and Western intelligence chiefs at their closed door meeting in Langley was that NATO should count itself out of further military interventions in Arab uprisings in the coming year – especially in Syria - after its mistakes in Libya. Reliance on Turkey was seen as a letdown. The Yemeni crisis was judged more dangerous to broader regions of the Middle East and East Africa than the Syrian conflict.

Away from the optimistic hype surrounding the "Arab Spring" – especially in Libya - and the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday reveals how Western intelligence chiefs secretly sized up the consequences of both at their first conference in ten months.
Their outlook was far from rosy. The West is nowhere near its goals in the Arab world and the war on al Qaeda faces big obstacles in new places.
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Home Front Commander Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday, Sept. 5 of the increasing peril of a total Middle East war in the wake of the Arab revolts and Israel's rift with Turkey. His comments shocked Israel's policy-makers and defense establishment out of their placidity. The defense minister's adviser Amos Gilead, hurriedly denied this prediction. "Israel's security situation has never been better," he said insisting "The Arab regimes around us are stable."
debkafile: The general's wake-up call was both apt and timely.

The Arab Revolt erupted in Tunisia on Dec. 18, 2010, exactly six months ago. The latest  DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday offers the first interim report: The uprisings are log-jammed after ousting two Arab presidents: Three rulers, Saudi King Abdullah, Qaddafi and Assad, defy the US and Europe and Yemen is breaking up. Qaddafi, Assad and Saleh are evoking tribal and clan allegiances to survive.
So where does this leave Obama, Netanyahu and Erdogan?
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