DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2015
With US Secretary of State John Kerry due in Qatar Monday, Aug. 3, to ease Gulf security concerns about the Vienna nuclear accord with Iran, the highest authorities in Tehran Sunday, Aug. 2, launched a public campaign in support of impending ballistic missile tests. This would flaunt Tehran’s non-acceptance of their prohibition under the Vienna nuclear accord and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 of July 20. The students of nine Tehran universities and Qom seminaries called on army chief Maj Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, to immediately stage long-range ballistic missile tests to invalidate the ban..
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 30, 2015
Khamenei, before ratifying the nuclear deal, shuts Iran’s doors to business with US firms, hands out gas concessions to Italy and France, oil and nuclear industry to Russia, refineries to China.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 16, 2015
Khamenei didn’t need a nuke to get what he wanted from the world powers. The threat posed by an elaborate nuclear program was enough for him to parlay into world-class status as a nuclear threshold state.
Back in Tehran… Khamenei adds red lines, Rouhani tries to resign, Jaafari hints at “fait accompli” soon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 12, 2015
Tehran is divided over whether or not to sign a comprehensive nuclear accord with the six world powers in Vienna as 22 agonizing months of negotiations falter on the brink. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hardly helpful when he said publicly on Saturday, July 11: “The US is the true embodiment of global arrogance,” the fight against which “could not be interrupted” even after the completion of the nuclear talks. But President Rouhani, on the point of resigning on June 26, failed in an heated interview to talk him round.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 25, 2015
Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei is keeping all parties, including his own capital, on tenterhooks until the last minute before June 30. Will the nuclear deal get signed? And if it is, how much will it cost?
DEBKAfile Special Report June 24, 2015
Uproar in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has relieved Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Al Qods Brigades chief and supreme commander of Iran's Middle East forces, of his Syria command after a string of fiascos. He remains in charge of Iran’s military and intelligence operations in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. This is revealed exclusively by debkafile. Tehran was shocked to find it was too stretched for troops and funds to uphold its commitments on four warfronts – Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon - without straining the reserves for combating a potential ISIS attack.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 18, 2015
The Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Jafari convinced Khamenei that Qassem Soleimani as expert on subversion and terror was not the right general for multiple warfronts. He was vindicated by the setbacks in Syria and Iraq.
Two major Mid East escalations: Yemeni rebels fire Scuds at Saudi air base. ISIS warns Syrian rebels
DEBKAfile Special Report June 6, 2015
Riyadh reported Saturday, June 6, that Patriot batteries had intercepted Scud missiles fired by Yemen Houthi rebels at Khamis al-Mushait, the kingdom’s largest air base, from which Saudi jets take off to strike Yemeni rebels. debkafile’s military sources disclose that the Patriots, activated for the first time, were manned by American teams – the first direct US intervention on the Saudi side of the Yemen conflict. Khamenei’s statement on Iranian troops for Syria is awaited. ISIS meanwhile warns Syrian rebels in the south to break off contact with US-Jordanian and Israeli command centers.
DEBKAfile Special Report May 21, 2015
The fall of Damascus and Baghdad, or large slices thereof, to the rapacious Islamic State, is no longer the subject of strategic forecasts, but here and now. It is the price the region is paying for President Barack Obama’s single-minded obsession with détente with Tehran and a nuclear accord. Ramadi’s fall in Iraq and Palmyra’s in Syria proved ISIS’s ability to rock the Middle East to its foundations. Watching the threats closing in, Jerusalem, Amman and Riyadh grasp they may have to contend alone – not just with Iran but also with ISIS.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 14, 2015
The Iranian ship heading for Yemen was set on course to mess Obama’s summit conference wit5h Gulf rulers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 7, 2015
Khamenei is all in favor of such incidents as the seizure of a commercial vessel by IRGC’s navy as it gives him levers of control and bargaining chips.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 12, 2015
The Obama administration is swinging between conflicting signals on the Iranian nuclear deal. In the face of tough conditions laid down by Tehran, the US president said in Panama Sunday, April 12: “Iran has it own politics and “hardliners” who need to be satisfied, but “there may be ways to structure the final nuclear deal that achieve core objectives while satisfying Iran’s pride.” Just Saturday, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said: “We have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.” This confusion is useful fodder for Tehran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 2, 2015
There was never any chance of the Iranian accepting any limitations on its nuclear program and so the negotiations led by US with the world powers was always a farce.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 2, 2015
Up until Thursday, April 2, the American and Iranian negotiators seemed locked in a mighty battle over the pace of sanctions relief, research and development, international inspections and the quantity of low-enriched uranium retained by Iran after shipping its stockpile overseas. But the real gridlock is over procedure: President Barack insists on a signed deal however long it takes, while the Iranian team is bound by the supreme leader’s directive to reject the two-stage process, only the one to be completed by June and include the removal of all sanctions.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 31, 2015
Control of the Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb Straits passed Tuesday, March 31 to pro-Iranian forces when the Yemeni Army’s 117th Brigade handed positions guarding the waterway to two Houthi commando battalions, debkafile reveals. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered two task forces to sail to the region to reinforce Houthi control of the strategic straits. Iran was involved in another development Tuesday, when unidentified aircraft bombed and destroyed a base in Burak, southwestern Libya, used by Iran to store arms purchased in Sudan for the Palestinian Hamas.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 19, 2015
The Obama administration has embarked on a bid to come to terms with Bashar Assad to lure Tehran into signing a nuclear accord. An end to the Syrian war would disburden Iran of its colossal ongoing investment in keeping Assad in power.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 12, 2015
Disaffection with US-Iranian nuclear diplomacy has spilled over into the Iranian street and raised hackles too in Moscow, Berlin, Paris and Washington.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 5, 2015
Obama and Netanyahu will continue to bicker amid uncertainty about whether Khamenei will actually sign the done nuclear deal between US and Iranian negotiators.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 22, 2015
The US and Iran are in a last-ditch effort to rescue their nuclear diplomacy before it falls into deep crisis. Some observers say the talks are beyond saving. The Obama administration may have hit the limit of its concessions; and Iran won’t give way on centrifuges and enriched uranium stocks. debkafile finds the US, Iran and Israel in a three-way race, each aiming for a different finishing line. Washington wants a nuclear deal in the bag by March 31; Tehran aims for June; while Binyamin Netanyahu nixes the existing US-Iranian draft.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 12, 2015
Fighting ISIS is Part II of Obama’s master plan, which is to first give Iran major concessions on a nuclear deal and a free rein in the Middle East – then dump the Islamist war in the ayatollahs’ laps.