The armies of Saudi Arabia and fellow GCC states stood ready Thursday Jan. 5, for Washington to stand up to Iranian threats and send an aircraft carrier or several warships through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.  Notwithstanding their military inferiority, the Iranians believe they can snatch a measure of success from a military confrontation now, which they expect to be limited – at least at first – and are therefore ratcheting up their belligerence day after day.

On the last day of 2011, US President Barack Obama Saturday signed into law measures penalizing foreign financial institutions doing business with Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi - the toughest sanctions yet for Iran's program for developing a nuclear weapon. In recent weeks, Tehran has repeatedly warned that the signing of this measure would be deemed an act of war and elicit drastic steps including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  debkafile: Tehran appears to be heading for a showdown.

Barack Obama set about tightening US cooperation with Israel after discovering Iran had embarked on nuclear weaponization. He was persuaded by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak that there was no time to lose for eradicating Iran's nuclear program – hence the White House flip-flop on attacking Iran.

Gulf rulers led by Saudi Arabia say that by packing up its bags and leaving, the US military abandoned Iraq the country to an Iranian power grab led by Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and released its sectarian demons. They are therefore determined to go it alone against Iran.

As news of Erdogan's grave illness trickles out, will Obama find a new Middle East partner to replace the pro-Western democratic Islamic ruler he chose as a model for Muslim rulers in the Arab world?

Iran has embarked on "activities related to possible weaponization," said American sources Thursday, Dec. 22, thereby crossing the Obama administration's red line. This accounts for the dramatic reversal of the US administration's wait-and-see policy on attacking Iran, as articulated this week by Leon Panetta and top US soldier, Gen. Martin Dempsey. debkafile reports the US and Israeli are now in sync on action against Iran and have tightened cooperation.

Extreme concern was quietly voiced Sunday, Dec. 18, by American and European official circles over the state of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's health – and especially its impact on present and impending events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, including Iran, debkafile's Western intelligence sources report. Those sources say Erdogan is suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer. The prolonged treatment he needs is already affecting policy-making and has sparked the first signs of a power struggle within his ruling AKP party.
 

Tehran offers to slow uranium enrichment in stages in step with the lifting of sanctions. The Obama administration is listening - provided Iran ditches Assad. This exchange of messages was carried by Iraqi PM Nouri al Maliki when he visited Washington this week.  It was the main subject of President Barack Obama's talks with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak Friday, Dec. 16. Israel is concerned that Iran has again contrived to buy time and leeway for completing its nuclear weapon program.

President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan have developed relations of mutual trust which allowed the US to set up its headquarters for the campaign to oust Bashar Assad in southwest Turkey. The next US-inspired step is to foment a campaign of civil obedience against the Assad regime, starting ...

Tehran was galvanized by the capture of the US drone into a spurt for spreading its diplomatic wings and showing the departing Americans who is the boss in Baghdad. An Iranian delegation sought to persuade Riyadh to help stabilize the regime in Damascus by forcing Bashar Assad to co-opt ...

Retired presidential adviser Dennis Ross in his first public appearance reveals that Barack Obama has charted a new Mid East policy which cares fully for Israeli, Saudi security needs but freezes them out of Washington policy-making. The Palestinian issue is put on ice indefinitely.

Israel has flatly refused to give the Obama administration a promise to abstain from attacking Iran's nuclear sites. US and Israeli military experts disagree on most things except that there would be no real military obstacles to reaching all of Iran's nuclear sites.

Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Khamenei has decided that Iran can choke off military threats and economic sanctions simply by going public on its manufacture of a nuclear bomb and declaring itself a nuclear power. His national security council thinks this is a bad idea – especially when weapon production still ...

The Arab League was not first to make the Syrian crisis a regional concern. Big power rivalry got there first. The US and France, like the Sunni rulers, seek Bashar Assad's downfall, while Russia and China are propping him up as their firewall for the Islamic regime in Tehran.

By April 2012 Iran will have five nuclear bombs or warheads, says intelligence reaching US president Barack Obama and relayed to Jewish leaders at a closed meeting in New York Sunday, Nov. 13, debkafile's sources report.  The window of opportunity for stopping Iran attaining a nuclear weapon will shut down in late March, after which military action would generate radioactive contamination across the Gulf oil region. Our sources refute claims that Saturday's Iranian base blasts were caused by the CIA or Mossad.

The US president and Israeli prime minister are working amicably on plans for a military attack on Iran's nuclear sites and Revolutionary Guards command. They agree that speed is essential and the campaign must end in days rather than weeks.

Not only has Iran managed to mount nuclear warheads on its Shahab ballistic missiles, they have been successfully tested four times. The IAEA report was only updated to the end of 2009, thereby missing this critical Iranian advance.

The IAEA circulated its Iran report Tuesday night, Nov. 8. It establishes that Iran is clearly working on developing atomic weapons: Its clandestine computer-simulated and practical tests on nuclear detonators, uranium enrichment at hidden sites and tests for adapting nuclear warheads to missiles have no explanation other than work on nuclear weapon components. Israel may decide to delay its military option to give sanctions a chance - even though Washington has dropped them.

American sources told Fox News early Sunday, Nov. 6 that all the senior Israeli ministers formerly against attacking Iran's nuclear sites are now for it, after updates on Iran's clandestine progress toward building a nuclear weapon. The ministers also believe new sanctions would not be tough enough. debkafile: Washington's uncritical references to Israeli plans signal Tehran that because of the level it has reached in its weapons-geared nuclear program, the US can no longer hold Israel back from exercising its military option.

Regional leaders hope the US is ready for a fresh start to reestablish its influence after exiting Iraq. They count on an attack on Iran overturning the regimes in Tehran and Damascus although their rulers will fight to the death. NATO and Israel have embarked on joint maneuvers to ...