Tehran has come around to deciding that Bashar Assad will have to be forced out of the Syrian presidency and may be willing to join forces with the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to accomplish this – provided the foursome can get past a whole thicket of animosities.

Iran and Hizballah declare NATO would never attack Syria, yet they are making military preparations for this very eventuality. Syria's only option to stem arms smuggling to the opposition is to seize large parts of Lebanon and Jordan, thus provoking a NATO assault.

The Israel-Hamas prisoner swap for Gilad Shalit and the exposure of the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador opened two new US fronts against Iran: The relocation of Hamas HQ from Damascus to Cairo which deprived Iran and Syria of their Palestinian lever and a pretext for the Saudis ...

Washington seeks a broad give-and-take deal for cooperation with Iran and guarantees of security for US troop units staying in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran wants Syria and Bahrain in the package.

Israel has mobilized 22,000 police alongside thousands of soldiers, declaring the country on the highest level of preparedness for violent riots Friday, Sept. 23, when the Palestinians hold prayers and rallies in support of their application for UN membership. Radical groups are planning to break into settlements and Israeli city residential areas.  The Palestinian Religious Affairs Minister has ordered all mosques, especially al Aqsa, to keep on shouting Allah is Great through loudspeakers turned up to maximum volume.

Accounts of the big diplomatic showdown at the United Nations over the Palestinian bid for statehood to be filed Friday, Sept. 23 are premature. Neither the Security Council nor the UN General Assembly will be making decisions this week; US President Barack Obama will not yet be called on to exercise his veto although he remains stuck with the Palestinian dilemma.  debkafile: The Palestinian application is likely to be put on hold for weeks if not months, during which Palestinian independence celebrations could turn violent.

The Obama administration recently opened a backdoor channel to Tehran, trusting that Iran would be more approachable for cooperation on knotty Middle East issues after missing its footing in the Arab uprisings. Iran's controversial nuclear program was not broached. 
The latest  DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday brings this initiative to light along with its rejection by Iran's hardline Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 
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The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.

Israeli leaders focus on Palestinian UN bid for state recognition to escape grappling with far more serious issues – hostile Turkish steps, Egypt's retreat from peace norms and Hamas' military and weapons buildup.

Thursday, Sept. 15, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas went back on his assurance 24 hours earlier to Saudi, European and Egyptian officials and decided to go through with his application to the UN Security Council on Sept. 23 for the admission of a Palestinian state to the world body. This was a pointed rebuff to the Obama administration whose envoys offered to renew US ties with the Palestinians if they refrained from applying to the Security Council. Tuesday, Abbas met with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Cairo.

In first new disclosures on the siege of Israel's Cairo embassy of Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile reveals the mob was led by Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Islamist groups. The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York was an early Jamaa operation under the al Qaeda label. Friday night, when the mob sacked the embassy, the Egyptian police stood by – until the rioters rifled the gunroom of a nearby police HQ.

Israel's Cairo embassy stood empty Saturday, Sept. 10 after thousands of demonstrators smashed through the wall enclosing the building, broke in and dumped the flag and hundreds of documents through the windows – some classified. debkafile: Egyptian security forces using tear gas and shooting in air failed to contain the howling mob led by Muslim Brotherhood adherents. Two Israeli military planes flew the ambassador and 80 staff home.  President Barack Obama expressed concern.

Former Al Qaeda adherent Abdel-Hakim Belhaj is groomed by the US and other NATO allies as future ruler of Libya. They have cast him as the role model of the new Islamist elite "converted to democracy" for future government in Egypt, Tunisia and other countries targeted by the Arabian Spring.

The leading rebel group delays transferring from Benghazi to Tripoli because Qaddafi loyalists are still fighting there. He is regrouping his forces for the next act of the Qaddafi drama.

In an extraordinary turnabout in the Tripoli standoff between West-backed Libyan rebels and Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam turned up with cheering crowds at the Rixos hotel early Tuesday, Aug. 23, and told foreign reporters he was never captured as widely reported. "We are winning,"he said.
His detention was not only reported by the rebels but "confirmed" embarrassingly by the International Criminal Court's prosecutors. "The rebels fell into a trap," said Saif.

Bashar Assad took the extra 10-15 days awarded him by US and Turkey as a grace period to finish his military slam against protest and introduce reforms. This was not intended and so Barack Obama finally told him he must go.

Rumors have started that Syria generals have deposed Assad in a secret putsch and left him in place as a front. They reportedly struck as middle class and army support for Assad was fading fast as the economy kept sinking – a deterioration exacerbated by President Obama telling him ...

Saudi Arabia, which embarked on building a strategic Sunni Muslim bloc six months ago, has done a lot better in a shorter time than even king Abdullah's strategic and intelligence advisers predicted. Harnessing Turkey, a major military power and NATO member, to their grouping is an unforeseen windfall.       By jumping aboard the Saudi ...

Thursday night, Aug. 11, US President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan agreed to set Syrian President Bashar Assad the deadline of Aug. 27 for extinguishing the popular uprising against his rule and starting to implement genuine democratic reforms. This decision followed Erdogan's report to Obama on the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's six-hour conversation with Assad Tuesday, Aug. 9. Turkey has called up reserves for transfer to the Syrian border.

In a signal strategic achievement, the Afghan Taliban shot down a US helicopter killing 31 US troops and 7 Afghan commandos in the rugged Wardak province east of Kabul early Saturday, Aug. 5 – the single largest US loss of life in the Afghan War. Among the dead were 22 members of the elite Navy SEAL Six, the same unit which killed Osama bin Laden in May. debkafile:The Taliban has developed methods for attacking US choppers with the non-sophisticated RPG.