Russia has handed Syria top-of-line weapons for beating foreign measures for undermining Bashar Assad. Iran footed the bill for those purchases and will certainly earmark some for its Revolutionary Guards and Hizballah.

The Arab League was not first to make the Syrian crisis a regional concern. Big power rivalry got there first. The US and France, like the Sunni rulers, seek Bashar Assad's downfall, while Russia and China are propping him up as their firewall for the Islamic regime in Tehran.

The Assad regime suffered a shock Wednesday Nov.16 when self-styled "Free Syrian Army" deserters firing shoulder-borne rockets and heavy machine guns struck its biggest security complex at Harasta west of Damascus. This was the first rebel attack on a major strategic target and a potential game-changer. debkafile: It was undoubtedly part of a well-laid plan drawn up by Turkey, the Persian Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Jordan to topple Iran's closest ally, Bashar Assad.

The potential for a regional flare-up shot up Friday and Saturday, Nov-11-12, with the blasts at two Iranian arms bases which killed at least 32 Revolutionary Guards men including Iran's top missile expert, and the Arab League Foreign Ministers' decision to suspend Syria's membership over Bashar Assad's brutal military crackdown on civilians. Even he understands what the AL means by threatening "more steps to protect Syrian civilians." Middle East capitals are on edge for the next acts in the Iranian-Syrian crises.

The Lebanese Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah has briefed his unit commanders on updated operational plans for firing 10,000 rockets at Tel Aviv and Israel's air force and reserve mobilization bases in a surprise attack, debkafile's military sources report. "The Zionist enemy cannot stand up to a salvo on that scale," he said and assured them that Hizballah is capable of fighting Israel without Iranian or Syrian help. To boost morale, Nasrallah disclosed the arrival of advanced weapons from Libya and unveiled plans to capture parts of Galilee.

It is feared in Jerusalem that the war will develop from a Syrian-Hizballah attack on Israel. If the US opts out of a strike against Iran, it will be left to Israel to do the job singlehanded.

The disclosure Tuesday, Nov. 1, by the International Atomic Energy Agency - that a spinning factory built in the northeastern Syrian town of Hasaka in 2003 was in fact an enriched uranium site - had a purpose: To crowd Bashar Assad into talking to the leaders of the revolt against him instead of slaughtering them. debkafile's intelligence sources report that although the NATO commander firmly denied an alliance role in Syria, NATO is already there – and not just  members like Turkey. 

Sunday morning, Oct. 30, Jihad Islami denied knowledge of a truce Egypt called for 0600 Sunday morning. By 0700 hours it had launched eleven Grad missiles and two mortar rounds from the Gaza Strip at Ashdod, Gan Yavne, Lahavim, Ashkelon and Shear Hanegev. This was the second day of its massive assault. Saturday, more than 35 missiles, most heavy Grads, battered eight towns, killed an Israel and injured seven. Schools there are closed Sunday amid a high security alert.

In the last 48 hours, the Syrian engineering corps has laid minefields along the Jordanian, Turkish borders to cut down on the influx of weapons and armed manpower supporting the anti-Assad opposition and the outflow of army deserters.  debkafile's military sources add: By this action, Syria also aims to seal itself off against foreign military intervention. Since Muammar Qaddafi's death, Bashar Assad fears he is facing Arab military incursions backed by NATO.

Tehran has come around to deciding that Bashar Assad will have to be forced out of the Syrian presidency and may be willing to join forces with the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to accomplish this – provided the foursome can get past a whole thicket of animosities.

Iran and Hizballah declare NATO would never attack Syria, yet they are making military preparations for this very eventuality. Syria's only option to stem arms smuggling to the opposition is to seize large parts of Lebanon and Jordan, thus provoking a NATO assault.

Has Syrian President Bashar Assad started murdering his own generals? Three have disappeared. One body was discovered in hospital riddled with bullets and may have been liquidated by rebels. After quelling mass demonstrations, the regime faces rising opposition guerilla attacks. Fearing a descent into civil war, the Allawites and Druzes have formed armed militias to protect their domains. Strapped for cash by sanctions, the Assad regime is borrowing from Iranian banks.

Five days after defeating a Western-backed UN Security Council resolution condemning Bashar Assad's savagery against his opposition, Moscow turned the heat on him by inviting an opposition delegation for a visit Monday, Oct. 10 and offering to host talks between the Syrian government and the opposition umbrella Syrian National Council.  Syrian Foreign Minister Wallid Moallem threatened unspecified "tough measures" against any countries recognizing the council, fearing a repeat of the Libyan rebel NTC exercise which toppled Muammar Qaddafi.

Targeted assassinations now dominate Bashar Assad's savage confrontation with the popular opposition to his rule. The White House finally told the Syrian ruler to step down for the first time as 50,000 Syrian Kurds clashed with security forces at the funeral of the popular Kurdish leader Mashaal Tammo, 53, slain  by masked men at his home in Qamishli, northern Syria Friday, Oct. 7. debkafile: The killers were members of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence Directorate acting on direct orders from Assad.

Israel and Turkey embarked on large-scale mobilization maneuvers near Syrian borders Wednesday and Thursday, Oct. 5-6 and the Jordanian armed forces were urged by the US and Turkey to follow suit. But Bashar Assad decided that having to build up his forces on two Syrian borders was enough. He sent a messenger to threaten Jordan's King Abdullah that if he staged an exercise, the Syrian air force would bomb Jordanian towns and if Israel intervened, he would attack them with missiles.

The consensus of US and Western intelligence chiefs at their closed door meeting in Langley was that NATO should count itself out of further military interventions in Arab uprisings in the coming year – especially in Syria - after its mistakes in Libya. Reliance on Turkey was seen as a letdown. The Yemeni crisis was judged more dangerous to broader regions of the Middle East and East Africa than the Syrian conflict.

War tensions between Turkey, NATO and Syria shot up again Tuesday, Oct. 4, with the announcement from Ankara that Turkey embarks Wednesday on a 10-day "mobilization" exercise in the southern province of Hatay along the Syrian borderwhere 7,000 Syrian refugees are sheltering. A visit by the Turkish prime minister is also expected. Earlier, debkafile reported exclusively that Bashar Assad had been threatening for three months to destroy Tel Aviv within six hours of an attack on Syria.

To punish the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas for submitting his application for UN membership in defiance of President Barack Obama's strong objections, Washington leaned on Jordan's King Abdullah II to allow a visit by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal to discuss his political bureau's transfer from Damascus to Amman. Saudi Arabia helped persuade him. Obama was telling Abbas thereby that if Hamas should moderate its extremism, his role as sole Palestinian spokesman would face serious competition.

Al Jazeera's Qatari owner Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani takes charge of editorial policy based on the vagaries of the Arab Revolt. He sacked two top editors and placed a safe family member at the top of the station's management.

"We sided with the Syrian people because regimes will go but the people always stay," said Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu Sunday, Sept. 18 in a bid to vindicate the "zero conflict" doctrine against its many critics. In fact, debkafile reports, most of "the Syrian people" had gone to their graves when Davutoglu made his remark: Bashar Assad and his army had virtually smashed their six-month protest, aided substantially by Turkey reneging on its pledge of military backing for "the people."