DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 28, 2013, 1:31 PM (GMT+02:00)
debkafile reports: US and Israeli intelligence analysts have no doubt that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas stands in the way of a negotiated peace accord with Israel, because he is sure he can get more by diplomatic manipulation and anti-Israel propaganda. Yet the Obama administration is planning to hold Binyamin Netanyahu to blame for the impasse in the talks by depicting him as a serial denier of peace and political failure. This is intended as payback for his bid to turn Congress against Obama’s policy of détente with Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2013, 5:00 PM (GMT+02:00)
Surrendering to Palestinian opposition, Secretary of State John Kerry has stepped back from the US security plan for Israeli troops to guard the Jordan Valley border - in favor of US forces, debkafile reports: The Palestinians won’t grant Israeli West Bank corridors for access to the Jordan Valley. The US agrees to an express train link between the West Bank and Gaza under Palestinian control across the Israeli Negev - with no access to Israeli monitors. Still, Israel’s response to Palestinian terrorism remains low key to avoid upsetting the talks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 20, 2013, 12:40 AM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKA Weekly reveals for the first time the contents of the controversial US framework for an Israeli-Palestinian accord.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 20, 2013, 12:39 AM (GMT+02:00)
Netanyahu and Gantz oppose intervention in Syria as a high-risk gamble, while some top generals urge building a security buffer in Syria up to the Israeli border to block the path of Al Qaeda to the Golan.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 13, 2013, 1:05 AM (GMT+02:00)
The Iranians, making like a world power, are thrusting their fingers into five major world pies, Syria, the Gulf, Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 8, 2013, 10:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov announced Monday, Dec. 4, the formation of a special unit to deal with “Syrian radicals” wiithin the North Caucasus republic and abroad. “Members…will be ready to interfere in the Syrian conflict if authorized by the Russian president.” Russian and Syrian intelligence fear al Qaeda in Syria is plotting a spectacular attack on the Sochi Winter Olympics in February, possibly using sarin, which US intelligence thinks al Qaeda has obtained. This was a prominent item in talks between Binyamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin in Moscow Nov. 20.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 6, 2013, 11:31 AM (GMT+02:00)
Secretary of State John Kerry put before Israelis and Palestinians Thursday, Dec. 5, a new security plan combining the US war on al Qaeda with the security provisions promised Israel in a settlement with the Palestinians, debkafile reports exclusively. Israeli and Palestinian units would be integrated in a planned regional US-led force for securing parts of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Palestinian territory and Israel against terror. It would consist also of US, British, French, Saudi, Jordanian and Egyptian units. Netanyahu was open to the idea; Abbas had reservations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 6, 2013, 12:20 AM (GMT+02:00)
After failing to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state, Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu has practically run out of options.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 30, 2013, 11:38 AM (GMT+02:00)
When the Geneva accord was signed on Nov. 24, Iran had already amassed enough enriched uranium for four nuclear bombs, and the Saudis stood ready to collect an atom bomb from a Pakistani shelf. In his phone call to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, President Barack Obama proposed tighter US intelligence oversight for verifying Iran’s compliance with its commitments and pass its findings to Israel for further analysis. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif threatened to boycott the technical discussions if Israelis were co-opted – even indirectly.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 28, 2013, 11:54 PM (GMT+02:00)
Obama offers Riyadh some major policy reversals on Egypt, Syria and Libya to gain King Abdullah’s cooperation.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 28, 2013, 11:54 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israel is unlikely to be mollified by the package offered by Obama for its cooperation, not forgetting that his diplomacy gave Iran space and time to reach the nuclear threshold.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2013, 8:27 AM (GMT+02:00)
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have decided to end the row with the Netanyahu government over the interim nuclear accord signed with Iran Sunday, Nov. 24 in Geneva, debkafile reports. This is partly to gain the prime minister’s cooperation for bringing the peace process with the Palestinians to a resolution. On this they are set. Instead of hitting back at Binyamin Netanyahu, Washington is lining up a package of benefits, including upgrade for the Israeli Air Force. More about this in the next DEBKA Weekly.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 24, 2013, 4:51 PM (GMT+02:00)
The first preliminary nuclear deal the six world powers (US, Russia, China, UK, France and German) signed with Iran before dawn Sunday, Nov. 24, failed to address the most suspicious elements of Iran’s nuclear program, i.e. its clandestine military elements. The expanded UN inspections were not applied, for instance, to Iran’s concealed nuclear sites - or even Parchin where Iran is suspected of testing nuclear-related explosions. Israel, the Gulf states and others therefore fear Iran’s nuclear program will continue to advance. debkafile lists seven of the most glaring loopholes.
Four new Iranian conditions block nuclear accord in Geneva. Putin calls Rouhani, Lavrov attacks Israel
DEBKAfile Special Report November 19, 2013, 9:57 AM (GMT+02:00)
Early Tuesday, Nov. 19, the US and Russian presidents went into action for a last-ditch bid to rescue a nuclear deal between the six powers and Iran in the face of a new impediment and crisis: Four noes from Tehran. They fear the negotiating track may not survive the new crisis. debkafile note the strange paradox of two leaders, Ayatollah Khamenei and Prime Minister Netanyahu, implacable adversaries in all else, maneuvering with all their might for the same object of taking the wind out of the sails of this deal.
Nuclear deal may sink in Geneva between hardline pressures in Tehran and tough Franco-Israel demands
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2013, 10:40 AM (GMT+02:00)
Washington and Moscow may sound upbeat about the prospects of a signed interim deal at the next round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six powers in Geneva Wednesday, Nov. 20. However, according to debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources, the way ahead is still bristling with mines, more so even than the first round. Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif fear retribution at home for yielding, while France and Israel toughen demands. Binyamin Netanyahu reiterates that a “bad deal” won’t bind Israel and brandishes Israel’s military option.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 16, 2013, 4:10 PM (GMT+02:00)
French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius arrive in Jerusalem Sunday, Nov. 17. Their talks with Israel’s leaders will show if France stands by its independent stance against Washington’s détente with Tehran and is willing to throw in its lot ad hoc with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Their outcome will determine whether Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu goes to Moscow next Wednesday alone or with French and Saudi backing. The next round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Nov. 20 will also be influenced.
Secret Israeli document to White House shows how US strategy shortens route to Iranian nuclear weapon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 15, 2013, 9:35 AM (GMT+02:00)
Thursday, Nov. 14, Israel sent the White House a confidential document outlining blow by blow how and when Iran will attain a nuclear weapon if the Obama-Kerry strategy for dealing with the issue goes through. The document was addressed to the National Security Council headed by Susan Rice, which debkafile reports takes issue with State Department policies on Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Israeli document illustrates in technical detail how the American proposal will shorten Iran’s route to breakout for a nuclear weapon, instead of delaying it.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 11, 2013, 2:26 PM (GMT+02:00)
Secretary of State John Kerry landed in Dubai Monday, Nov. 11, to try and break up the unique bond of European governments, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states and Israel which stalled the US-Iranian nuclear deal in Geneva. debkafile: Washington shows no sign of toning down its deal with Iran, although US undersecretary Wendy Sherman and EU’s Catherine Ashton are blamed for damaging the process by opening the draft too freely for amendments by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zerif, which even Kerry was not ready to sign.
Israel accuses US of deceit on nuclear deal with Iran. Geneva signing drags out as Iran ups its price
DEBKAfile Special Report November 9, 2013, 12:38 PM (GMT+02:00)
The delay in signing the first interim nuclear accord with Iran in Geneva prompted the remark by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius: “There is an initial draft that we do not accept… I have no certainty that we can finish up.” However, debkafile confirms that the deal cut directly between Washington and Tehran ahead of the Geneva conference will be signed at latest Saturday, Nov. 9, or Sunday - in the face of French reservations, Israel’s fury and Tehran's opportunist bid to extort more concessions at the last minute.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 8, 2013, 1:34 PM (GMT+02:00)
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu slams the interim nuclear agreement with Iran as “burying the possibility of a peaceful final accord.” He said: “Israel is not obliged by this agreement and will do everything it needs to do to defend itself and its people’s security.” debkafile: This was a dual warning: 1) Israel has abandoned its trust in Barack Obama ever complying with his pledge to its security and will henceforth act on its own. 2) Israel may yet exercise its military option against Iran’s nuclear capability – whether openly or covertly.