The US downgrade of its role in the annual joint drill with Israel in October has the effect of dismembering their joint strategy for deterring and intercepting an Iranian/Hizballah/Syrian assault on Israel; it slashes Israel’s notice of incoming Iranian missiles from 14 minutes, and throws out Ehud Barak’s worst-case estimate of 500 dead from war with Iran. debkafile: Binyamin Netanyahu must demand a White House retraction of Gen. Dempsey's denigration of the morality of an Israel attack and respond to Hurricane Obama.

By US Gen. Martin Dempsey’s assertion Thursday, Aug. 30 that the US would not be “complicit” in an Israel strike against Iran, President Barack Obama was telling Israel: You are on your own! See how you manage without special US weapons and US military backup, including a shield against missile counter-attack. debkafile: A secret US-Russian deal is in the works. President Putin has cut off military ties with Iran and Syria, but Obama is having a hard time reciprocating by making Netanyahu give up on force against Iran.

In its bluntest message yet, the Obama administration declared that Israel is on its own if it attacks Iran. Thursday, Aug. 30, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reiterated that an Israeli attack would “delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” adding impatiently: “I don't want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it." Sanctions were having an effect, said the general. But as he spoke the IAEA reported a 31 percent jump in Iran’s enriched uranium stock.

Obama shuns advice to stay Israel’s hand against attacking Iran by offering a solemn pledge of a US strike or by presenting Tehran with a credible US threat. US-Israeli dialogue is going around in circles.

Some Western intelligence circles suggest that Israel may choose to disable Iran’s nuclear program by eliminating its leaders.

The White House this week scrambled to reconnect with Jerusalem after the Obama administration realized Israel was seriously contemplating a military operation against Iran’s nuclear program this fall - notwithstanding the heavy opposition guns aimed at it at home and from Washington. As Israel embarked on home front defense measures, Obama asked what it would take to hold Israel back before the Nov. 6 US presidential election. The answer: A solemn, binding US guarantee to strike Iran next spring - plus weapons upgrades.

Four separate groups are fighting the Netanyahu government to stop an attack on and if possible to throw it out of office. One is headquartered at the US embassy in Tel Aviv, two others are led by political opposition groups and a fourth is spearheaded by social protest activists ...

The White House is setting up a meeting between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the September opening of the next UN General Assembly, at which Netanyahu plans to call for Iran’s expulsion, debkafile reports. Sources close to Obama admit that the US-Israeli dialogue on Iran has petered out and this is hurting the president’s campaign for reelection. Israeli ambassador Michael Oren said Israel would be willing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities - even for a few years’ delay.

Barack Obama’s quarrel with Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak is becoming more intense and personal the closer Israel comes to attacking Iran’s nuclear program before the US Nov. 6 vote.  Read the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly out next Friday, and find out how that feud fires up certain opposition political circles at home and fuels their virulent campaign to tie the Netanyahu government’s hands and so push it out of office.
And don’t miss our insights into the Muslim Brotherhood’s coup against the Egyptian army and the Syrian conflict.

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The Syrian rebels’ Western and Arab sponsors have ratcheted up their military assistance by giving them tanks, 20 Russian-made T-62s from Libya, paid for by Qatar, after first providing them with their first Stinger anti-air missiles, debkafile reports. The FSA is now equipped to defend safe havens, thereby ushering in the next stage of the 18-month war for turning the tide against Bashar Assad. This development could bring the Syrian ruler closer than ever before to launching his chemical and biological weapons against his enemies.

Iran will have 250 kilograms of 20-percent grade uranium, enough to build its first nuclear bomb, in six weeks, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. That deadline prompted Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s comment Sunday, Aug. 12: “All threats against the home front are dwarfed by one – Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear arms!”  He was followed 8 hours later by the Muslim Brotherhood coup in Cairo - and a tough security dilemma born of his long foot-dragging on Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Tuesday, July 31, that he hasn’t yet reached a decision on attacking Iran, but added: “The ayatollahs have inscribed Israel’s destruction on their banner.” He stressed his personal commitment “not to permit Israel to come under Iranian atomic threat.”
Netanyahu spoke shortly before US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said upon landing in Israel that he is not going to discuss potential attack plans with Israeli leaders – only “various contingencies and how we would respond.”

Although six governments are helping the Syrian rebels, Israel and Jordan are Assad’s primary targets for chemical weapon retaliation. Unmoved by US and Israeli warnings, he keeps those weapons ready for use at a time of his choosing.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz are rightly using a necessary austerity package as a lever for getting the country on track for a war economy, without saying so. They avoid discussing the consequences and duration of the new measures because they can’t tell how long a war, which they believe may be close, will last or how it will end. debkafile estimates that they are quietly building a $25-30 strategic financial reserve for the worst-case scenario.

Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian armies and US Middle East forces were on the ready Sunday, July 22, in case Syrian chemical weapons moved toward Lebanon, debkafile reports. Acting in unison, those armies are watching out for the slightest movement, because it would take just two hours to cover the distance from Syria to the Hizballah-controlled Bakaa Valley of Lebanon. Their arrival there would mean a war. So the IDF prefers to stop the arsenal in its tracks before it reaches the Lebanese border.

Tehran and Damascus have decided to initiate their war on Israel with terrorism, reserving chemical weapons for use first against the rebels and Jordan. Syria’s rebels have also procured chemical weapons from Libya.

Acquitted of two corruption charges, Ehud Olmert leapt agilely Tuesday, July 10 from the pit of disgrace into the political limelight. He is apparently preparing for the role of great unifier of the left-of-center opposition, shaping a new bloc from disparate groupings and disaffected security and military chiefs to potentially hammer Binyamin Netanyahu’s ruling right-of-center coalition.
That coalition too faces change: Before going on trial next month, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has chosen Yair Shamir to succeed him as Israel Beitenu leader.

Saying “An Islamist flood threatens us all, the Russian president put before the Israeli prime minister propositions of a secret conduit through Moscow to Tehran and help for mending Turkish-Israeli relations in return for a Russian stake in Mediterranean oil.

The high point of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s noteworthy 90-minute talk with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Monday, June 25, was Putin’s firm assurance that Iran would not get a nuclear bomb. He stressed it would be against Russian interests, debkafile reports exclusively. “We [Russians] know more about what is going on with Iran’s (nuclear) capabilities than the Americans,” he said, indicating that Israel would be better served spending in Moscow some of the time taken up by endless palaver with the Americans.

 

The Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Egypt will have pushed aside Iran and energy as top issues when Monday, June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin on a short visit to Israel meets Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. On this at least they have common ground:  The Muslim Brotherhood governments rolling out along Middle East shores with US encouragement – Libya, last year; Egypt, yesterday; and Syria, tomorrow – are seen as a threat to regional stability rivaling even the menace of a nuclear-armed Iran.