debkafile's sources disclose exclusively that, contrary to reports in Washington, Jerusalem - and this site too - it was Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, not the Obama administration, who called off the joint US-Israeli military exercise Austere Challenge 12, a step unprecedented in Israel-US relations. Netanyahu acted when he judged the Obama administration's resolve to preempt a nuclear Iran to be flagging. His action also aimed at freeing Israel's hands for a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear sites - if necessary.

The unattributed killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan last Wednesday, Jan. 11, was the subject of an angry phone call from US President Barack Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the next day, debkafile reports.  Washington is concerned, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, that Israel may strike Iran's nuclear sites and has bolstered the defenses of US facilities in the region. In Jerusalem, Washington's strong and unusual slamming of the attack was deeply resented.

The US and Israel, while bound tightly by military bonds, are at loggerheads over Iran. The Obama administration wants to cut Israel out of military action against Iran's nuclear sites and prevent it hitting back for an Iranian reprisal. Israel is withholding a commitment to abstain from striking Iran ...

Israel has flatly refused to give the Obama administration a promise to abstain from attacking Iran's nuclear sites. US and Israeli military experts disagree on most things except that there would be no real military obstacles to reaching all of Iran's nuclear sites.

The actions and words of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in the last 72 hours indicate they are bracing for a regional war, including an attack on Iran, within a time frame between mid-December 2011 and mid-January 2012.
debkafile points to Syria's military exercise in "war conditions," Binyamin Netanyahu's war speech, Washington's heavy hand on Jerusalem to desist from attacking Iran and the hide-and-seek maneuvers of US and Russian fleets.

Monday, Nov. 21, Jordan's King Abdullah II arrived in Ramallah at very short notice for his first visit in more than a decade. He came wearing two hats – one for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates and one for Washington – on an urgent mission to pull Abbas back from a peace deal with Hamas which would deposit the Palestinian Authority in the Iranian-Syrian orbit. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is in the picture. So are the Israeli chief of staff's words on a Gaza operation.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the PBS interviewer Charlie Rose Wednesday, Nov. 16 that none of the experiments Iran was conducting was based on a neutron source.  "It's always simultaneous explosions on heavy metals and certain other activities which cannot be explained," he said. DEBKAfile notes his stress on the lack of evidence that Iran was developing tactical neutron bombs, but it did confim experiments with uranium- and plutonium- based explosives, i.e.,large nuclear bombs, not small, tactical warheads.

The US president and Israeli prime minister are working amicably on plans for a military attack on Iran's nuclear sites and Revolutionary Guards command. They agree that speed is essential and the campaign must end in days rather than weeks.

Beersheba, Ashkelon, Ashdod and Sderot were again under missile fire from Gaza Monday night, Oct. 31 for the third day - although Israel's Home Front Minister Mattan Vilnai had stated the Jihad Islami offensive was over. Of the 7 missiles, one was intercepted by an Iron Dome battery in Beersheba.  Skeptical of the military assessment, several southern mayors kept schools closed. The continuing barrage and the army's decision to park an Iron Dome in Rehovot proved they were right.
 

Russia used Israel's negotiations with Hamas for the release of Gilad Shalit to justify its continuing support for Syrian President Bashar Assad and opening the door to pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian terrorist groups. Wednesday, Oct. 19, Moscow welcomed a Lebanese Hizballah delegation, the first European capital to formally receive Iran's terrorist surrogate. debkafile: The Russians suspect a US-Israeli gambit in play to loosen Hamas' bonds with Damascus and Tehran and are working through Hizballah to spoil it.

The Israel-Hamas prisoner swap for Gilad Shalit and the exposure of the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador opened two new US fronts against Iran: The relocation of Hamas HQ from Damascus to Cairo which deprived Iran and Syria of their Palestinian lever and a pretext for the Saudis ...

The United States has finally given Israel a green light to attack Iran – but only its Red Sea warships not its nuclear sites. But Israel is wary of an armed clash with Iran – at least until Gilad Shalilt is safe at home and it can be sure ...

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asked the full government Tuesday night, Oct. 11 to endorse deal with Hamas for bringing Gilad Shalit home within days although the price agreed is heavy: 1,000 jailed Palestinian terrorists, including 60 convicted for multiple murders. debkafile discloses that deal was the outcome of a secret accord between US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and, Hamas' Khaled Meshaal providing for the Hamas bureau's transfer from Damascus and gradual withdrawal from ties with Tehran.

 

In their speeches to the UN General Assembly Friday, Sept. 23, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas agreed only on the importance of reviving peace talks. Otherwise they were daggers drawn.  Yet the Middle East Quartet later issued a call for both to start peace talks in a month to end within a year. First, the Palestinian leader handed UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a formal request for Palestinian membership.

Accounts of the big diplomatic showdown at the United Nations over the Palestinian bid for statehood to be filed Friday, Sept. 23 are premature. Neither the Security Council nor the UN General Assembly will be making decisions this week; US President Barack Obama will not yet be called on to exercise his veto although he remains stuck with the Palestinian dilemma.  debkafile: The Palestinian application is likely to be put on hold for weeks if not months, during which Palestinian independence celebrations could turn violent.

The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.

Israeli leaders focus on Palestinian UN bid for state recognition to escape grappling with far more serious issues – hostile Turkish steps, Egypt's retreat from peace norms and Hamas' military and weapons buildup.

In first new disclosures on the siege of Israel's Cairo embassy of Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile reveals the mob was led by Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Islamist groups. The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York was an early Jamaa operation under the al Qaeda label. Friday night, when the mob sacked the embassy, the Egyptian police stood by – until the rioters rifled the gunroom of a nearby police HQ.

The policy of military restraint pursued by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak was shown in the Tel Aviv attack by a Palestinian terrorist yelling Allah Akhbar Monday, Aug. 29, to have crossed a dangerous red line: Civilians are being left in harm's way to serve diplomatic interests such as not further straining relations with the new rulers in Cairo. An Israeli defense official has admitted that Iran fears American – not Israeli – military strength, thereby confessing to Israel's loss of deterrence. 

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ruled Sunday, Aug. 21, that his first priority is to grant Egypt's military rulers the kudos for brokering a ceasefire in the Gaza missile war  – and deal later with the Palestinian Jihad Islami which fired most of the 100 missiles exploding in Israel from Gaza in the last four days. debkafile: He was wrong: Cairo will come back for more concessions under Muslim Brotherhood pressure; Jihad Islami and its masters, Tehran and Hizballah, remain free to restart missile fire any time.