The Israel-Hamas prisoner swap for Gilad Shalit and the exposure of the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador opened two new US fronts against Iran: The relocation of Hamas HQ from Damascus to Cairo which deprived Iran and Syria of their Palestinian lever and a pretext for the Saudis ...

The United States has finally given Israel a green light to attack Iran – but only its Red Sea warships not its nuclear sites. But Israel is wary of an armed clash with Iran – at least until Gilad Shalilt is safe at home and it can be sure ...

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asked the full government Tuesday night, Oct. 11 to endorse deal with Hamas for bringing Gilad Shalit home within days although the price agreed is heavy: 1,000 jailed Palestinian terrorists, including 60 convicted for multiple murders. debkafile discloses that deal was the outcome of a secret accord between US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and, Hamas' Khaled Meshaal providing for the Hamas bureau's transfer from Damascus and gradual withdrawal from ties with Tehran.

 

In their speeches to the UN General Assembly Friday, Sept. 23, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas agreed only on the importance of reviving peace talks. Otherwise they were daggers drawn.  Yet the Middle East Quartet later issued a call for both to start peace talks in a month to end within a year. First, the Palestinian leader handed UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a formal request for Palestinian membership.

Accounts of the big diplomatic showdown at the United Nations over the Palestinian bid for statehood to be filed Friday, Sept. 23 are premature. Neither the Security Council nor the UN General Assembly will be making decisions this week; US President Barack Obama will not yet be called on to exercise his veto although he remains stuck with the Palestinian dilemma.  debkafile: The Palestinian application is likely to be put on hold for weeks if not months, during which Palestinian independence celebrations could turn violent.

The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.

Israeli leaders focus on Palestinian UN bid for state recognition to escape grappling with far more serious issues – hostile Turkish steps, Egypt's retreat from peace norms and Hamas' military and weapons buildup.

In first new disclosures on the siege of Israel's Cairo embassy of Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile reveals the mob was led by Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Islamist groups. The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York was an early Jamaa operation under the al Qaeda label. Friday night, when the mob sacked the embassy, the Egyptian police stood by – until the rioters rifled the gunroom of a nearby police HQ.

The policy of military restraint pursued by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak was shown in the Tel Aviv attack by a Palestinian terrorist yelling Allah Akhbar Monday, Aug. 29, to have crossed a dangerous red line: Civilians are being left in harm's way to serve diplomatic interests such as not further straining relations with the new rulers in Cairo. An Israeli defense official has admitted that Iran fears American – not Israeli – military strength, thereby confessing to Israel's loss of deterrence. 

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ruled Sunday, Aug. 21, that his first priority is to grant Egypt's military rulers the kudos for brokering a ceasefire in the Gaza missile war  – and deal later with the Palestinian Jihad Islami which fired most of the 100 missiles exploding in Israel from Gaza in the last four days. debkafile: He was wrong: Cairo will come back for more concessions under Muslim Brotherhood pressure; Jihad Islami and its masters, Tehran and Hizballah, remain free to restart missile fire any time.

An air of crisis descended on the world Tuesday, Aug. 9 as markets continued to tumble steeply and in London, large parts of the city  succumbed to uncontrolled violence. Far East stocks leveled out at 3 percent, Europe fell 3.5-5 percent Tuesday after Wall Street slid 5-7 percent Monday. More than $70 billion were wiped out in global trading Monday hours after US President Barack Obama said America will always be a Triple A country. Israel could join world crisis if all protest demands are met.

The presence of the many-faceted political campaign strategist Ron Weber behind the spreading Israeli street campaign for "social equality" raises suspicions in Jerusalem that alien hands are stirring the pot to overturn the Netanyahu government.

The motley group which two weeks ago set up a "tent city"to protest the unavailability of affordable housing has assumed attributes of the Arab uprisings: It enjoys backstage foreign political support - some from certain circles in Washington; it exploits genuine popular grievances for political capital; it wants regime change, namely, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's head - and is building up to achieve this as the UN votes on Palestinian statehood. A new government will then recognize Palestine within 1967 borders.

The News of the World hacking scandal hanging over Rupert Murdoch's global empire and British Prime minister David Cameron could conceivably erupt in Israel where tycoons with media holdings also aspire to determine who rules the country. Tabloid methods are just as dodgy in Israel, but the difference lies in the influence the British media have over the voter thanks to their high professional standards which attract huge audiences. Murdoch is already in the UK to stem the damage to his empire.
 

American Jewish leaders visiting Jerusalem this summer are giving the Israeli prime minister all kinds of advice – some say quietly back Republican hopeful Jon Huntsman but both advise him to stay clear of the presidential race because the odds still back Barack Obama.

Wednesday, July 6, the Palestinian Authority notified the Obama administration that early next week it would file a request with the UN Security Council for admission to the UN as a full member recognized as an independent state within the 1967 borders. But debkafile reports the US got in first, having agreed with European powers and Russia to have the request put on ice by the Security Council consenting to discuss it behind closed doors - without setting a date.

President Barack Obama has shelved any serious effort to generate Israel-Palestinian negotiations for at least two years, debkafile's exclusive sources report from Washington. "It's a second term issue," he is quoted as telling his advisers. Only in November 2012 will he know if he is returned for another term as president and then too is unlikely to get back to the Israeli-Palestinian issue for several more months – "depending largely how the Arab Revolt" goes.

Five years after the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit was kidnapped by Hamas in a cross-border raid from Gaza, members of his family Saturday, June 25, chained themselves to the fence outside the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's residence in desperate protest.  debkafile: Their protest is misdirected to the wrong address: Even if Israel bowed to every Hamas demand, its leaders backed by Iran and Syria would set a new price as the pretext for holding on to this prime asset.
 

Prime Minister Netanyahu has dropped his long-time ally and partner-in-policymaking Defense Minister Ehud Barak and turned to hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman as his only adviser. But essentially, Bibi has dispensed with a circle of advisers and taken over the solo lead in all defense affairs and important foreign relations.

The final touches on US President Barack Obama's push to revive Israel-Palestinian negotiations are being put in place by his Middle East advisers David Hale and Dennis Ross and the legal adviser to the National Security Council Jonathan Schwartz who arrived in Israel Tuesday, June 14. After tying up arrangements in Jerusalem, the group is to meet Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas Thursday.
debkafile reports the Israeli and Palestinian leaders have dropped pre-conditions and agreed to sit down and talk.