The Obama administration is satisfied enough with the progress made in its secret dialogue with Ayatollah Khamenei that it has begun winding sanctions down, starting with exemptions to 11 nations from the oil embargo on Iran.

The Middle East has unknowingly been living for ten days under threat of a regional war, which debkafile’s military sources disclose was delivered by Syrian president Bashar Assad to UN-Arab League peace envoy Kofi Annan Saturday, March 10. Assad warned him that Syrian missiles would reach any countries preparing for military intervention in Syria before they moved. debkafile: Four European naval and air forces stand ready to seal off security zones in Syria against Assad’s troops and planes.

The Obama administration saw in the unimpeded passage of the Abraham Lincoln carrier through the Strait of Hormuz a signal that Tehran may be amenable to nuclear talks. Preparatory feelers are going forward on three tracks via Baghdad, Ankara and Vienna between the emissaries of the US President and ...

Bashar Assad, universally hated and despised for his brutality, is confounding predictions of his imminent downfall with the help of tactical, arms and propaganda assistance from Russia and Iran. Al Qods Commander Maj. Gen. Haj Qassem Soleimani directs the Iranian team in Damascus and military advisers attached to Syrian Army riot dispersal units. From Lebanon, Hizballah pumps out emergency reinforcements for the Syrian military.  

As news of Erdogan's grave illness trickles out, will Obama find a new Middle East partner to replace the pro-Western democratic Islamic ruler he chose as a model for Muslim rulers in the Arab world?

Extreme concern was quietly voiced Sunday, Dec. 18, by American and European official circles over the state of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's health – and especially its impact on present and impending events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, including Iran, debkafile's Western intelligence sources report. Those sources say Erdogan is suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer. The prolonged treatment he needs is already affecting policy-making and has sparked the first signs of a power struggle within his ruling AKP party.
 

President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan have developed relations of mutual trust which allowed the US to set up its headquarters for the campaign to oust Bashar Assad in southwest Turkey. The next US-inspired step is to foment a campaign of civil obedience against the Assad regime, starting ...

The Muslim Brotherhood's role in post-revolt Arab capitals – sought by Barack Obama – faces counter-pressure from Russia, China and Iran – particularly in Damascus. Not just Iran, but Russia and China too have stepped up their arms consignments to the regime, loath to see fundamentalist Muslim power reigning in any Middle East capital. In Damascus, Moscow has set up a military-diplomatic headquarters.

Anwar Sadat's assassin of three decades ago rides again at the head of a fundamentalist Salafi party running for election while Turkey's prime minister Tayyip Erdogan draws frowns during his Cairo visit for dishing out patronizing advice to his hosts.

Turkey sharply ratchets up its threat of war with Israel. Three Turkish frigates were ordered to the eastern Mediterranean and instructed to disable Israeli military ships if encountered outside Israel's 12-mile territorial waters. This was reported by Turkish naval sources Sept. 12 as Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was due in Cairo for a controversial visit - in defiance of the Egyptian government's effort to cool the crisis in relations with Israel.

By ordering Turkish warships to escort aid ships to Gaza and stop Israel's offshore gas exploitation, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is muscling his way into the eastern Mediterranean and taking his dispute with Israel to the brink. He is also challenging Greece and Cyprus. Cairo and Riyadh are ...

The US, Turkey, Iran and the Iraqi Kurdish government have joined hands to liquidate the Kurdish rebellions against Ankara and Tehran. They have been temporarily distracted from their campaign against Syria's Bashar Assad.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan this week coolly moved his country towards an armed clash with Israel – not just over the Palestinian issue, but because he covets the gas and oil resources found opposite Israel's shores. He has ordered Turkish warships to enter the eastern Mediterranean in the belief that by breaking Israel's Gaza blockade, he will win kudos as the first Muslim leader to challenge Israel militarily on behalf of the Palestinians and Arab acclaim as the big shot of the region.

Saudi Arabia, which embarked on building a strategic Sunni Muslim bloc six months ago, has done a lot better in a shorter time than even king Abdullah's strategic and intelligence advisers predicted. Harnessing Turkey, a major military power and NATO member, to their grouping is an unforeseen windfall.       By jumping aboard the Saudi ...

Thursday night, Aug. 11, US President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan agreed to set Syrian President Bashar Assad the deadline of Aug. 27 for extinguishing the popular uprising against his rule and starting to implement genuine democratic reforms. This decision followed Erdogan's report to Obama on the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's six-hour conversation with Assad Tuesday, Aug. 9. Turkey has called up reserves for transfer to the Syrian border.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan wants to visit Gaza next Sunday or Monday (24-25 July), debkafile reports. But both Turkish and Egyptian security services fear the visit would give the al Qaeda cells based in the Gaza Strip and Sinai a chance to assassinate him. Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas maintains it would amount to de facto Turkish and Egyptian recognition of the Hamas government. And in Jerusalem, Erdogan would appear to be deliberately hampering efforts to heal its rift with Ankara.

If Aleppo finally throws its weight against the anti-government opposition, Bashar Assad's days will be numbered – especially after his elite troops failed to break the back of the uprising and he blew his only shot at national dialogue by disinviting influential opposition leaders.

The visits the US and French ambassadors, Robert Ford and Eric Chevalier, paid to Hama Friday, July 8, in the thick of the half-million anti-Assad turnout, offered a rare glimpse of the quest by Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and Tayyip Erdogan for a Syrian compromise: It would leave Bashar Assad in place provided he accepts reforms and makes room for the opposition in government. But Turkish troops still remain poised on the Syrian border over his head.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan applied the brakes to the process of reconciliation with Israel when he learned Wednesday, July 6, that the UN inquiry commission into last year's Turkish-led flotilla had ruled Israel's naval blockade on Gaza legal. Eight Turks and a Turkish-American were killed in a clash with Israeli commandos who boarded the Mavi Marmora. The UN ruling meant that Israel was within its rights and the Turkish vessel's attempt to break the blockade was illegal. 

President Barack Obama has shelved any serious effort to generate Israel-Palestinian negotiations for at least two years, debkafile's exclusive sources report from Washington. "It's a second term issue," he is quoted as telling his advisers. Only in November 2012 will he know if he is returned for another term as president and then too is unlikely to get back to the Israeli-Palestinian issue for several more months – "depending largely how the Arab Revolt" goes.