DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 8, 2012, 12:16 PM (GMT+02:00)
The first US-Turkish backed steps for creating safe havens in Syria and possible Western bombardment of the Syrian army have brought the Middle East close to two dangerous junctures: The Syrian army’s use of chemical and biological weapons, and an outbreak of hostilities between Hizballah and Israel – which nearly happened in mid-week, debkafile reports.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 7, 2012, 12:17 AM (GMT+02:00)
US, Iranian and Israel planners have moved past discussion on whether Israel can be prevented from attacking Iran before the November election and are now talking about their various versions of a second strike option, which all agree will be more devastating than the first.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 6, 2012, 10:59 AM (GMT+02:00)
Turkish army officers have assumed direct command of at least two Syrian rebel brigades fighting Bashar Assad’s government forces, according to debkafile’s exclusive sources. This step and its future expansion, discussed during CIA Director David Petraeus’ talks in Ankara, have sent military tensions rocketing on Israel’s northern borders with Syria and Lebanon. A high alert was declared for Israel units on the Syrian and Lebanese borders for a possible backlash after unusual military movements were detected in Syria and among Hizballah concentrations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 30, 2012, 10:49 PM (GMT+02:00)
Seeing he cannot defeat the rebels, now boosted by an influx of foreign jihadists, Assad is stiffening his army and loyal militias with a large injection of Shiite volunteers from Iran, Lebanon, Africa and the Gulf. However, the foreign Sunni and Shiite fighters will soon be at each other’s ...
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 10, 2012, 12:47 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iran’s Saeed Jalili visited Beirut and Damascus for military coordination with Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah on their respective roles in retaliating for a potential US/Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites and the regime in Damascus being squeezed into a danger zone. They decided that in either case, the mutual Iranian-Syrian defense pact would be invoked.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 28, 2012, 12:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
Hassan Nasrallah has released a video clip recording Hizballah’s 2006 raid which ended in the deaths of eight IDF soldiers and the kidnapping of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Hot military pursuit for their rescue mired Israel in the ill-prepared, misconceived Second Lebanon war which Hizballah claimed to have won. debkafile: The tape is designed and timed as a warning to Israel that Nasrallah is free to launch his next war with a similar ending any time now, fully backed by Iran and Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 27, 2012, 12:40 AM (GMT+02:00)
Although six governments are helping the Syrian rebels, Israel and Jordan are Assad’s primary targets for chemical weapon retaliation. Unmoved by US and Israeli warnings, he keeps those weapons ready for use at a time of his choosing.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 24, 2012, 8:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
The suicide bomber who killed six people in an attack on an Israeli bus at Burgas airport July 18, had accomplices, was “extremely experienced” and may have entered Bulgaria from Europe’s Schengen passport-free area, said Bulgarian Prime Minister Boygok Borisov. He spoke Tuesday, July 24, at a new conference with visiting US presidential anti-terror adviser John Brennan. The European Union turned down Israel’s request to blacklist Hizballah as a terrorist organization after Israel blamed it and Iran for the attack.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 22, 2012, 10:47 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian armies and US Middle East forces were on the ready Sunday, July 22, in case Syrian chemical weapons moved toward Lebanon, debkafile reports. Acting in unison, those armies are watching out for the slightest movement, because it would take just two hours to cover the distance from Syria to the Hizballah-controlled Bakaa Valley of Lebanon. Their arrival there would mean a war. So the IDF prefers to stop the arsenal in its tracks before it reaches the Lebanese border.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 19, 2012, 11:45 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tehran and Damascus have decided to initiate their war on Israel with terrorism, reserving chemical weapons for use first against the rebels and Jordan. Syria’s rebels have also procured chemical weapons from Libya.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 2, 2012, 7:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
Two radical developments arising from the Syrian conflict are revealed by debkafile: In an astonishing about face, Turkey has abandoned its 14-month support for the Syrian revolt alongside the West and made common cause with Russia, i.e. Bashar Assad. Further exacerbating fears of a “proxy war” involving Israel, Iran and Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah is preparing to transfer its Scud D missiles, capable of hitting any point in Israel, from Syria to Lebanon. Israel has threatened to stop their crossing by force.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012, 6:11 PM (GMT+02:00)
Despite the deep secrecy surrounding the incident, debkafile reports exclusively that unidentified commandos this week kidnapped five top Hizballah commanders, naming them as Ali Safa, a senior officer of Hizballah’s intelligence service and nephew of Hassan Nasrallah; Hussein Hamid, Dep. Commander of Hizballah forces in South Lebanon; Ali Zerayb, member of its Jihad Council; Hassan Arzouni, chief of intelligence in the Bint Jbeil district bordering on Israel; and Aras Shoeib, head of training in the Beqaa Valley of E. Lebanon.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012, 12:58 AM (GMT+02:00)
Obama focuses on obtaining Vladmir Putin’s consent to deploying 5,000 largely Russian monitors in Syria in order to gain a partner also for his Iran nuclear diplomacy. HIzballah risks being cut off from its heavy weapons arsenal hidden in Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 24, 2012, 11:16 PM (GMT+02:00)
Nasrallah finds his Hizballah is growing increasingly unpopular at home for aiding and supporting Bashar Assad against the Syrian uprising. He is losing allies right and left and up against the choice between defying his masters in Tehran and losing face at home.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 18, 2012, 12:47 AM (GMT+02:00)
The Iranian leadership is torn by a serious debate over a preemptive strike on Israel. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei fears it will jeopardize his credibility and upend his direct confidential dialogue with Barack Obama. He faces tough opposition from Iran’s war faction.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 11, 2012, 7:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
The shocking impact of the twin explosions which killed 55 people and injured almost 400 in Damascus Thursday, May 10, galvanized Bashar Assad’s allies, starting with Iran, into frenetic activity. Within hours, Tehran had ordered its Lebanese proxy Hizballah to open up its arms stores and run quantities of weapons and military equipment across the border to the Syrian army. Iran then started organizing a security camera network for Damascus. Moscow judged the bombings a serious escalation in the conspiracy to topple Bashar Assad.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 26, 2012, 11:36 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israel’s war preparations are based on the estimate that by the end of 2012, Iran will be able to produce a crude nuclear device as well as a dirty bomb. It calculates as high the risk that Tehran will decide to use those devices for war against Israel in the short term and not ...
DEBKAfile Special Report March 27, 2012, 5:28 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israel boosted its Syrian and Lebanese border units as special flights carrying thousands of pro-Palestinian activists from Tehran touched down in Damascus for the international Global March to Jerusalem Friday, March 30. Before takeoff, they were split into small groups and tutored by Iranian Al Qods Brigades officers in tactics for breaching Israeli border barriers, bursting through and challenging the Israeli military forces defending the border. They go into action on Palestinian-backed Israel-Arab Earth Day to match disturbances in Israel and the West Bank.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 16, 2012, 1:49 AM (GMT+02:00)
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood secretly turned to mending its fences with Iran on the back of the Israeli-Palestinian clash over the Gaza Strip using Hamas as go-between. The Sunni Brotherhood, the dominant political force in post-Mubarak Egypt, decided two weeks ago to forge ties with Shiite Iran, causing a major upset for United States and Israeli ...
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 14, 2012, 10:29 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tehran is capitalizing on its allies’ two perceived victories: Bashar Assad’s success in seizing Idlib from rebel hands and the Palestinian Jihad Islami’s triumphal missile assault from Gaza on southern Israel. The Iranians are moving forward with plans to match that assault with a Hizballah offensive on northern Israel from Lebanon. This was the object of a rendezvous opposite Metulah Wednesday, March 14, between a high-ranking Iranian delegation headed by Ahmadinejad’s spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr and Hizballah intelligence officers.