DEBKAfile Special Report July 14, 2015
In broad lines, the final nuclear deal, reached between six world powers and Iran in Vienna on Tuesday, July 14 - after repeated hold-ups - grants Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. debkafile: The accord is a triumph for President Barack Obama’s policy of orienting US foreign policy on a rapprochement with Iran, while turning a cold shoulder to America’s traditional Middle East allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. It anoints Tehran as leading regional power with its nuclear program intact – a major fiasco for Binyamin Netanyahu.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 13, 2015
US presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton holds the key to the Democratic Senate vote on the nuclear deal after its announcement in Vienna later Monday, July 13. The Republicans will oppose it, but a majority for annulling the presidential veto depends on 13 Democrats crossing the floor. Iran is ready for this with draft legislation empowering the Majlis to annul the deal if US compliance is deemed unsatisfactory. So the Iranian parliament is pitted against the US Senate and, by implication, Hillary Clinton is in the driving seat versus Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Back in Tehran… Khamenei adds red lines, Rouhani tries to resign, Jaafari hints at “fait accompli” soon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 12, 2015
Tehran is divided over whether or not to sign a comprehensive nuclear accord with the six world powers in Vienna as 22 agonizing months of negotiations falter on the brink. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hardly helpful when he said publicly on Saturday, July 11: “The US is the true embodiment of global arrogance,” the fight against which “could not be interrupted” even after the completion of the nuclear talks. But President Rouhani, on the point of resigning on June 26, failed in an heated interview to talk him round.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 9, 2015
European Union Foreign Executive Federica Mogherini is quoted by debkafile’s intelligence sources as shouting at Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif: “If that’s where you stand it’s a pity to waste any more time!” Jarif is quoted as snapping back: “Don’t threaten us!” This exchange took place Wednesday night, July 8, after the second deadline had passed without a final deal. The US delegation led by Secretary of State John Kerry is said to have sat without moving a muscle. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stepped in to cool tempers.
Zarif returns to Vienna with top Iranian nuclear elite. Israel fears nuclear deal signing is imminent
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 30, 2015
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif was on his way from Tehran to Vienna Tuesday, June 30, accompanied by two government heavyweights: Ali Akhbar Salehi, Chairman of the Nuclear Energy Commission, and Hossein Feredydoon, senior adviser to President Hassan Rouhani. debkafile: Israel fears that this high-powered Iranian representation portends a “surprise” signing of the comprehensive nuclear deal with the world powers on or close to the deadline day, after word of delays was deliberately spread to head off objections..
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 29, 2015
When Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Sunday, June 28: “We are seeing a clear retreat from the red lines that the world powers set recently and publicly,” he meant three major US concessions approved in the days leading up to a nuclear deal with Iran: debkafile discloses The US no longer holds Iran accountable for past clandestine nuclear weapons tests; has empowered Tehran to permit or bar international inspections; and set out unconditional sanctions relief in three tight stages. Obama’s pledge to “snap back” sanctions for violations is history.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2015
Israel’s National Security Adviser Yossi Cohen was invited to join two top US officials for dinner in Washington on June 15 to try and amend the disastrous nuclear accord taking shape between the six world powers and Iran, before it was too late. This meeting, arranged by CIA Director John Brennan, is revealed here for the first time by debkafile. National Security Adviser Susan Rice and senior nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman let Cohen present Israel’s case for a better deal for Israeli and American security - and then turned him down flat.
Kerry’s refusal to be “fixated” on Iran’s former nuclear misdeeds fits the US pattern of indulging Tehran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis June 17, 2015
President Barack Obama is about to make his most substantial concession yet to Iran by agreeing to release only one part of their nuclear accord, while keeping the technical protocols secret. Senior US negotiator Wendy Sherman fought hard to get both parts released, but was overruled. The 50 pages of the nuclear accord’s practical annexes embody the adage that the devil is in the detail. But Obama may choose to keep it secret from Congress, the American public and US allies, while Iran is given free rein to pursue its objectives.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 2, 2015
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have gone out of their way in the last fortnight to shower friendly gestures on Israel and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, devoting more time to repairing the relationship than on world crises in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Ukraine. debkafile: Instead of sparring with the Israeli leader, whose speech in Congress placed him at the forefront of international opposition to the nuclear deal, the White House decided to try and convert him – and also Congress - by meeting him on certain points.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 23, 2015
Obama has told US negotiators to be “creative” in negotiating Iran’s demand for instant sanctions upon signing a nuclear deal. A down payment from Iran’s multibillion frozen assets could solve the problem.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 16, 2015
There are ways to disrupt S-300’s radar before its control room issues the command for the missile to shoot down incoming warplanes or missiles.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly April 15, 2015
The Israeli Air Force has the proven ability, unique in the region, to jam hostile ground, airborne and seaborne radar screens, using counter measures that would be effective against the Russian S-300 air defense system and its twin radar systems – if delivered to Iran. DEBKA Weekly’s next issue out this Friday reveals why the S-300 would be no bar to an Israeli air strike - any more than similar Syrian air defense missiles prevented the IAF from demolishing the Iranian-North Korean plutonium reactor on Sept. 6, 2007 in northern Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 12, 2015
The Obama administration is swinging between conflicting signals on the Iranian nuclear deal. In the face of tough conditions laid down by Tehran, the US president said in Panama Sunday, April 12: “Iran has it own politics and “hardliners” who need to be satisfied, but “there may be ways to structure the final nuclear deal that achieve core objectives while satisfying Iran’s pride.” Just Saturday, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said: “We have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.” This confusion is useful fodder for Tehran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 6, 2015
“If anyone messes with Israel, America will be there.” This conciliatory message was issued by US President Barack Obama in a New York Times interview Monday, April 6. In it, he urged Israel to accept the nuclear deal as the “best bet” and rely on America to “have its back” against Iranian or any other hostility. debkafile: This message, though important, does not cover Iranian’s ongoing aggressive drive for regional expansion by conventional military means backed by terror, or loosen the noose Iran is already tightening around Israel’s borders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 4, 2015
Tehran produced a short document Friday, April 3, to dispute the account of the outcome of the Lausanne nuclear negotiations as presented in Washington the day before. The US is accused of "spinning" legallly non-binding "solutions" to cover up gaps on enrichment, sanctions, research and development and verification. All sanctions must be annulled in one day upon Iran’s implementation of the final accord, the Tehran document insists, and new sanctions banned. Inspections are ignored including “the verification mechanisms” promised by President Obama.
DEBKAfile Special Report April 2, 2015
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif and EU Foreign Policy Executive Federica Mogherini announced Thursday, April 2 that “a general agreement for a peaceful nuclear program and a lifting of sanctions against Iran” had been reached in Lausanne. The agreed parameters of a joint comprehensive plan of action would be negotiated in detail “between now and June 30,” she said. Zarif, who spoke next, insisted: “There is no agreement; and so no commitments” before June 30. But President Obama hailed the agreement as a historic event that “meets our core objectives.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 2, 2015
There was never any chance of the Iranian accepting any limitations on its nuclear program and so the negotiations led by US with the world powers was always a farce.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 29, 2015
President Barack Obama and John Kerry promised that the nuclear deal to be signed with Iran in Switzerland this week would give the world powers a year’s warning from the Islamic Republic’s break out to an operational weapon. debkafile: To clinch the framework deal in Lausanne, even this concession, which imperils Israel, the Gulf and the Middle East at large, was not enough. The president authorized the US delegation to fall back again and cut the space granted the world powers for reaction to breakthrough from a year to six or seven months:
DEBKAfile Special Report March 28, 2015
Iran’s top war commander, Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, landed in Sanaa Friday, March 27, debkafile reports, to organize a counter-offensive for the Saudi-Gulf-Egyptian operations against Tehran-backed Houthi rebel advances. By opening its third direct Middle East warfront after Syria and Iraq, Tehran was holding the Obama administration to its promise of support as the leading Middle East power, in return for signing a nuclear framework deal by March 31. Solemeini’s must urgently restore Iran’s sea and air supply lines to Yemen, cut off by Saudi-led air strikes.
Egypt seizes Bab el Mandeb ahead of Iran. Saudis bomb Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis. US launches air strikes over Tikrit
DEBKAfile Special Report March 26, 2015
In a surprise step, Egyptian forces Thursday morning, March 26, seized control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Straits to pre-empt Tehran’s grab for this important energy shipping gateway between the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal, debkafile reports. It rounded off the just-launched Saudi-led air strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, signaling a 10-nation Sunni Arab revolt against Iran’s approaching takeover of Yemen and other Mid East positions with Washington’s support, and coinciding with the first US air strikes over Tikrit in aid of Iran.