DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis March 7, 2015
US and Israeli intelligence agencies sharply disagree on the time Iran needs for breakout to a bomb. The Americans cite one year between a decision by Tehran to cross from nuclear threshold to nuclear bomb – enough time for preventive action; the Israelis say much less and, anyway, US and Israeli can’t be sure to catch the Iranians at it in time to stop its advance to a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia, fellow Gulf States and Egypt are no more convinced than Israel that the one-year timeline is realistic.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 5, 2015
Obama and Netanyahu will continue to bicker amid uncertainty about whether Khamenei will actually sign the done nuclear deal between US and Iranian negotiators.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 5, 2015
The Turkish and Pakistani prime ministers have worked on details of nuclear-sharing and military collaboration among the three Sunni powers initiated by Saudi King Salman to counter Iran’s drive for Shiite domination.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 4, 2015
Barack Obama’s Iran policy, spectacularly challenged by Binyamin Netanyahu in his Congress speech Tuesday, March 3, is manifested 10,000 kilometers from Washington, in the Iranian-led Iraqi battle for Tikrit. Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff commented that day that the “Tikrit campaign… the most overt conduct of Iranian support …could turn out to be a positive thing.” debkafile: This US-Iranian partnership, which is mirrored in Syria, is alarming Israeli military chiefs because it brings the Iranian peril closer than ever before.
In his US Congress speech, Netanyahu did not urge scrapping nuclear accord – only making it a lot tougher for Iran
DEBKAfile Special Report March 3, 2015
In the 40-minute speech Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu delivered to a joint session of the US Congress Tuesday, May 3, he listed the iniquities of the “dark, dictatorial Islamic regime” in Tehran, and criticized the nuclear deal in negotiation as marking the “countdown to a nuclear nightmare” that would threaten not just Israel but the world. He proposed “making it better” by confronting Iran with three provisos: Give up aggression and state-sponsored terror and stop threatening Israel with annihilation. His speech to a packed chamber was interrupted by 40 standing ovations and long cheers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 3, 2015
What Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has not spelled out in his unrelenting campaign against a deal that would allow Iran nuclear threshold status is this scenario: It would leave Tehran the freedom to choose when to build a single nuclear bomb or device, that could be dropped over the Mediterranean from a civilian airliner and trigger a tsumani for wiping out the Tel Aviv conurbation. The giant wave would kill an estimated one million people and wipe out the Israeli heartland, financial and business centers, military headquarters and hi-tech industry.
Netanyahu tries to head off Iran’s machinations after Obama empowers Tehran as favored Mid East ally
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis March 1, 2015
Almost the last words Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu heard Sunday, March 1, when he took off for Washington to address Congress on Iran was: “Don’t do it!” They came from a group of 180 ex-IDF military officers who tried to stop the speech lest it damage relations with the US. debkafile: Their protest should be addressed to the White House where, for six years, Barack Obama has eroded those relations. Netanyahu’s speech is just a tardy attempt to check Iran’s malignant machinations which go forward without restraint.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 26, 2015
Binyamin Netanyahu is fighting against a nuclear-armed Iran because of its plan to desolate the Israeli heartland and drown a million Israelis by means of a tsunami triggered by a single nuclear bomb dropped in mid-Meterranean.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 22, 2015
The US and Iran are in a last-ditch effort to rescue their nuclear diplomacy before it falls into deep crisis. Some observers say the talks are beyond saving. The Obama administration may have hit the limit of its concessions; and Iran won’t give way on centrifuges and enriched uranium stocks. debkafile finds the US, Iran and Israel in a three-way race, each aiming for a different finishing line. Washington wants a nuclear deal in the bag by March 31; Tehran aims for June; while Binyamin Netanyahu nixes the existing US-Iranian draft.
Information about the US-Iranian nuclear dialogue is no longer “sensitive.” For Obama it’s a done deal
DEBKAfile Special Report February 17, 2015
Accusing Binyamin Netanyahu of leaking “sensitive” information on US nuclear negotiations with Iran skews the fact of an almost done deal between US President Barack Obama and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. It wants only Iran’s paramount leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsement. In attempting to bring him round, Washington is using media spin tactics which Netanyahu’s opponents have seized on to accuse him of sabotaging relations with Washington. Netanyahu is not alone in objecting to Obama’s Iran policy. So too do the Saudis, some Gulf emirates and Egypt.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 12, 2015
Fighting ISIS is Part II of Obama’s master plan, which is to first give Iran major concessions on a nuclear deal and a free rein in the Middle East – then dump the Islamist war in the ayatollahs’ laps.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 12, 2015
As Iran’s Rev Guards go from strength to strength and dominate four Mid East cities, they are pushing ever harder for a full-scale nuclear weapon. Supreme leader Khamenei has not yet said the last word on a nuclear deal with the US.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2015
Obama has made six big concessions that would let Iran acquire the status of pre-nuclear power. However, the supreme leader and Revolutionary Guards must approve the deal.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 24, 2015
President Barack Obama will arrive in Riyadh Tuesday, Jan. 27 with the First Lady, to offer US condolences on the death of King Abdullah and hold his first formal conference with Salman Bin Abdulaziz as King of Saudi Arabia. He must clear the air most urgently on Riyadh’s flat opposition to the multilateral nuclear deal taking shape with Iran; persuade Salman to slow oil production so as to curb plunging oil prices; and decide together how to handle Yemen’s fall into the hands of Shiite Houthi rebels backed by Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis January 22, 2015
President Barack Obama offered two options for resolving the Iranian nuclear impasse: His administration’s diplomatic engagement, or a new Mid East war. Neither the US Congress nor Israel accepts the Obama formula. Israel decided to strike an Iranian-Hizballah military convoy on Golan, causing the death of an Iranian general. This provided Senate sanctions initiatives with military muscle. House Speaker John Boehner responded by inviting Binyamin Netanyahu to address Congress on Feb. 11 on Iranian nuclear and radical Islamic threats. Between now and then, none of the parties may stand idle.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2014
The Revolutionary Guards air force interception of a chartered plane carrying US troops from Afghanistan was part of a radical contest with the pro-diplomacy president over Iran’s nuclear program and ties with Washington.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 4, 2014
Tehran can afford to play hard ball in nuclear talks with the West after determining from a study of the Gaza war that neither Israel nor the West seek a military showdown.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 29, 2014
Iran’s nuclear moderates, Rouhani and Zarif, are isolated at home with Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards blocking any concessions and seeking new technology from China and North Korea.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2014
Iranian aviation and intelligence experts estimate that the Israeli-made Hermes 450 drone downed Aug. 23 over the Natanz enrichment facility took off from Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Airbase, debkafile reports. Our sources add that the Hermes 450 boasts a range of video and still cameras that can capture extremely high-resolution color images. Thermal imaging devices allow the cameras to operate in poor visibility and almost any weather condition. Iran has failed till now to stop regular drone flights from Nakhchivan incoming to spy on its nuclear sites.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 17, 2014
Two years of backchannel nuclear talks between the US and Iran are grinding to a halt, and with the public deadline for an agreement drawing near Khamenei refuses to make any further concessions.