DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 26, 2009
debkafile's military sources cite some Western intelligence and nuclear weapons experts as predicting that Iran could turn out nuclear weapons some time in the next 12 months.
This estimate is based on Tehran's announcement that 7,000 centrifuges are in operation to enrich uranium. If all those machines were to work at top speed day and night, seven days a week, they could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a bomb in 60 days, say some intelligence sources.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 19, 2009
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad crowed Wednesday, April 15: "Iran's resistance and progress in nuclear technology forced Washington to retreat from its position..." Following the suggestion that the six powers' could waive the US demand for Iran to give up enriching uranium as a pre-condition for talks, the Iranian president said his government was not satisifed and was preparing counter-proposals as the basis for those talks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 16, 2009
debkafile's Iranian sources report two key developments in the standoff over Iran's nuclear drive: Tehran effectively rejected the latest offer by the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany of nuclear negotiations with direct US involvement - except on its own terms. Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said: If President Barack Obama's diplomatic efforts fail, "We'll strike him."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 14, 2009
Cutting the ribbon on Iran's first nuclear fuel plant at Isfahan, Thursday, April 9, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triumphantly marked a major breakthrough at a ceremony marking Iran's fourth national nuclear day, 24 hours after the five UN Security Council powers and Germany offered Tehran economic incentives for negotiations on uranium enrichment.
debkafile's military sources: The Isfahan plant takes Iran's nuclear reactors another big step outside the purview of international inspections.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 31, 2009
Israel's AMAN military intelligence director, Maj. Amos Yadlin updated the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee on the state of Iran's nuclear progress Wednesday, March 25. He reported that although Iran is only months away from a capacity to make a nuclear bomb and has attained a warhead capability, Tehran has decided not to cross the threshold so as to avoid provoking Western retaliation.
debkafile's military sources report that this is not Tehran's true rationale. The Iranians are held back by two more compelling motives:
US planes destroyed arms convoy for Gaza in Sudan, Egyptian, Sudanese media. CBS: Strike by Israeli Air Force<br/>
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 29, 2009
debkafile's military sources: Sudanese and Egyptian security officials reported Tuesday, March 24, the day Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir arrived in Cairo, that in January, US Air Force AC 130H gunships taking off from bases in Djibouti destroyed a 17-truck clandestine convoy carrying smuggled arms as it travelled through Sudan to the Egyptian border. All 39 passengers were killed, said those officials. Wednesday night, CBS TV News quoted unidentified US Pentagon officials as claiming the attack was not carried out by American but Israeli aircraft.
No official comment has come from Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 26, 2009
"We will watch and we will judge (the new U.S. administration) ... You change, our behavior will change," said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme ruler in the northeastern city of Mashhad March 21 to thousands of worshippers, two days after US president Barack Obama offered a new beginning of diplomatic engagement.
Tehran's flat rejection was broadcast by the highest authority in the land and the Shiite world to make its position crystal clear.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 16, 2009
On March 4, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy published a paper with two important disclosures:
Iran has enough fissile material available for making up to 50 nuclear bombs and Tehran can go from low enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium in a relative brief period of time, perhaps a year or so.
Israeli officials, while evading action to curb a nuclear-armed Iran, now go about suggesting that the Jewish state can live in its shadow.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 9, 2009
Leading a concentrated outpouring of venomous hate, Iran's supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared Wednesday, March 4, that President Barack Obama is pursuing the same "wrong path" as his predecessor in supporting Israel - "a cancerous tumor" - and he saw no change.
This was Tehran's response to the moderate language coming from the new US president and Obama's offer of talks.
President Mahmoud Ahmandinejad told the conference, which was attended by all the Palestinian factions including Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah, "The story of the Holocaust... is the biggest lie of our era."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 7, 2009
debkafile's counter-terror sources that Gaza's Hamas strongman Mahmoud A-Zahar was given an Israeli safe passage to travel from Gaza to Cairo in mid-February.
He made straight for Damascus and Tuesday, March 3, was flown to Tehran to deliver the keynote speech at a conference called by the Islamic Republic as a counterweight to the international donors' conference sponsored by the US and Egypt this week.
Cairo persuaded Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak that he could be counted on to sign a long-term truce for Gaza.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 4, 2009
The Friday sermon delivered by former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rasanjani in Tehran on Feb. 27 offered US president Barack Obama a lure and a catch, condemned Israel and threatened Russia.
Indicating Israel, he said: "'You are planting a false notion in public minds." Addressing the Russians, he said bluntly that "...even if they don't' deal with the [Bushehr] project, we can finish it on our own."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 27, 2009
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed a series of accords with Djibouti president Ismail Omar Guelle Tuesday, Feb. 24, establishing technical and vocational centers in the East African state and supporting development projects. A new protocol opened an Iranian credit line for Djibouti, whose president commended the cooperation between two nations belonging to the "great Islamic Ummah." debkafile: Tehran continues its expansionist drive beyond the Middle East to the Horn of Africa, including Somalia and Eritrea.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 25, 2009
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals the terms of the accord US president Barack Obama has secretly forged with Saudi King Abdullah and the ways in which they plan to work together in the Muslim world, the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
Moscow in contrast is deepening its ties with Tehran.
The implications of this widening divergence are examined in the latest issue of DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday. Also details of Saudi king's sweeping modernizing reforms and new appointments.
To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click DEBKA-Net-Weekly.com?ref=001">HERE.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 25, 2009
The White House expressed concern Friday, Feb. 20, about a new International Atomic Energy Agency report that said Iran recently understated how much uranium it had enriched. The nuclear watchdog reported Thursday, Feb. 19, that Iran had stocked more than one tonne of low enriched uranium hexafluoride at Natanz alone. If enriched, it could produce more than 20 kilos of fissile material - enough for a bomb.
debkafile reported on Nov. 28, 2008, that by February, Iran would have enough enriched uranium to approach production of its first nuclear bomb. This crosses a "red line" that for years Israel has said it would not accept.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 22, 2009
Iranian media this week offered a glimpse into the purported double life of an Iranian-born American physician alleging he was a secret bio-weapons scientist. They reported that Dr. Noah McKay (formerly Nasser Talebzadeh Ordoubadi) died in mysterious circumstance Saturday, Feb. 14 aged 53, vaguely accusing "intelligence agencies" of causing his death, which no one else confirms.
Dr. Noah is described in his American biography as a pioneer of Mind-Body-Quantum medicine. The Iranian media claim he was a leading bio-weapon researcher into antidotes for toxic weapons.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 22, 2009
debkafile's military sources report that defense minister Mostafa Najar and his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov are making good progress in the talks they began Tuesday, Feb. 17 on the sale of advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles to Iran. Both sides agreed it was essential to provide Iran's Bushehr reactor with an effective system against air and missile attack.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 18, 2009
debkafile's military sources report that Iran's defense minister Mostafa Najar travels to Moscow Monday, Feb. 16 to tie up the last ends of Tehran's purchase of a brigade of advanced Russian S-300 air defense missiles to guard its nuclear sites.
Their acquisition would make an air attack on Iran's nuclear facilities extremely difficult and dangerous - if not impossible.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 9, 2009
The launch of Omid (Hope), Iran's first home-made satellite into orbit early Tuesday, Feb. 3, is a breakthrough demonstrating the Islamic Republic has managed to develop long-range, three-stage, solid fuel ballistic rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
debkafile's Iranian sources stress that the credit for this feat belongs to Iran's "Military Group" - the team of scientists and technicians working on its clandestine nuclear bomb program.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 3, 2009
Iran's government spokesman is quoted as saying Saturday, Jan. 31 that capitalist thought and the system of domination have failed. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a ceremony marking the 30th anniversary of Khomeini's overthrow of the shah that Iran's Islamic revolution was not limited to its borders. His response to the US president Barack Obama's overtures was a demand that America apologize for 60 years of "crimes against Iran" and its new president carry out a "deep and fundamental change."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 10, 2009
The strategy the Islamic regime has charted for the new US president hinges on fanning tensions on Israel's northern and southern borders while putting a damper on the various Middle East peace initiatives. Syria was therefore discouraged from returning to its indirect peace track with Israel and Hamas ordered to boycott Egypt's bid to patch up the quarrel between the Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah.
Tehran's object is to show Barack Obama who holds the whip hand in the Middle East and force him to seek urgent talks to defuse rising tensions.
Iran's rulers want to force the new US president to seek them out for a back-door channel of communications before entering the White House and acknowledge them as the prime Middle East power.
debkafile's Exclusive military sources disclose that Iranian agents, aided by Hizballah, are enlisting Palestinian militias in the big Lebanese Ain Hilwa refugee camp near Sidon and other camps for terrorist missions on Israel's northern border.