DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 28, 2009
The detailed report compiled by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington last month, complete with graphs and diagrams, has been reprinted in thousands of copies in Tehran. It is compulsory reading for its intelligence and Revolutionary Guards personnel because the Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities concludes that the Jewish state has all the resources necessary for a successful strike.
The CSIS paper maintains there is no need to destroy dozens or hundreds of sites; the destruction of seven to nine targets would be enough to cripple the Iranian program.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 27, 2009
Pyongyang announced early Wednesday, May 27, that its withdrawal from the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 means that "the Korean peninsulas will go back to a state of war." Thousands of US troops are deployed in the buffer zone since the war ended.
US spy planes reported that the plutonium separation plant at Yongbyon had been reactivated.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2009
debkafile's military sources report that Israel, the US and Europe were taken aback by Iran's successful launch Wednesday, May 20, of a two-stage, solid-fueled 2,000-kilometer range missile, but most of all by the accuracy of its aim in destroying its target, as proudly claimed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Western military sources told us later: "Iran is at least two or three years ahead of Israel's missile defenses."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 17, 2009
According to debkafile's Iranian sources, US journalist Roxana Saberi was released as part of an exchange deal under which Washington agreed to free four senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers captured in Iraq in January 2007. Defined as "diplomats" by Tehran, they ran terror operations and covert arms supplies from Iran then to al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent networks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 9, 2009
Sunday night, May 3, Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced the Iranian president would pay official visits to Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador from May 7 to 8. Twenty four hours later, the tour was postponed "indefinitely" without explanation. Instead, Ahmadinejad will visit Damascus Tuesday. debkafile reported earlier that the visit's highlight was to be the signing of a contract for the sale of Brazilian uranium to Iran, a deal set up by Hugo Chavez and Russian nuclear czar Sergei Kiriyenko (as first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 392 on April 17: Iran Eyes Nuclear Breakthrough with Brazil).
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 7, 2009
debkafile's Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that Moscow warned Tehran Friday April 17 that Israel was planning to destroy all 140 fighter-bombers concentrated at the Mehr-Abad Air Force base for an air show over Tehran on Iran's Army Day the following day. The entire fleet was accordingly removed to remote bases and the display cancelled.
Ali Khamenei charges US military in Iraq, Israeli intelligence with attacks that killed Iranian pilgrims
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 29, 2009
"The main suspects in this crime and crimes similar to that are American security and military forces," said Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Satuday, April 25, of the string of deadly bombs that left 155 dead in Iraq including dozens of Iranian pilgrims.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 26, 2009
debkafile's military sources cite some Western intelligence and nuclear weapons experts as predicting that Iran could turn out nuclear weapons some time in the next 12 months.
This estimate is based on Tehran's announcement that 7,000 centrifuges are in operation to enrich uranium. If all those machines were to work at top speed day and night, seven days a week, they could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a bomb in 60 days, say some intelligence sources.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 19, 2009
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad crowed Wednesday, April 15: "Iran's resistance and progress in nuclear technology forced Washington to retreat from its position..." Following the suggestion that the six powers' could waive the US demand for Iran to give up enriching uranium as a pre-condition for talks, the Iranian president said his government was not satisifed and was preparing counter-proposals as the basis for those talks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 16, 2009
debkafile's Iranian sources report two key developments in the standoff over Iran's nuclear drive: Tehran effectively rejected the latest offer by the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany of nuclear negotiations with direct US involvement - except on its own terms. Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said: If President Barack Obama's diplomatic efforts fail, "We'll strike him."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 14, 2009
Cutting the ribbon on Iran's first nuclear fuel plant at Isfahan, Thursday, April 9, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triumphantly marked a major breakthrough at a ceremony marking Iran's fourth national nuclear day, 24 hours after the five UN Security Council powers and Germany offered Tehran economic incentives for negotiations on uranium enrichment.
debkafile's military sources: The Isfahan plant takes Iran's nuclear reactors another big step outside the purview of international inspections.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 31, 2009
Israel's AMAN military intelligence director, Maj. Amos Yadlin updated the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee on the state of Iran's nuclear progress Wednesday, March 25. He reported that although Iran is only months away from a capacity to make a nuclear bomb and has attained a warhead capability, Tehran has decided not to cross the threshold so as to avoid provoking Western retaliation.
debkafile's military sources report that this is not Tehran's true rationale. The Iranians are held back by two more compelling motives:
US planes destroyed arms convoy for Gaza in Sudan, Egyptian, Sudanese media. CBS: Strike by Israeli Air Force<br/>
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 29, 2009
debkafile's military sources: Sudanese and Egyptian security officials reported Tuesday, March 24, the day Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir arrived in Cairo, that in January, US Air Force AC 130H gunships taking off from bases in Djibouti destroyed a 17-truck clandestine convoy carrying smuggled arms as it travelled through Sudan to the Egyptian border. All 39 passengers were killed, said those officials. Wednesday night, CBS TV News quoted unidentified US Pentagon officials as claiming the attack was not carried out by American but Israeli aircraft.
No official comment has come from Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 26, 2009
"We will watch and we will judge (the new U.S. administration) ... You change, our behavior will change," said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme ruler in the northeastern city of Mashhad March 21 to thousands of worshippers, two days after US president Barack Obama offered a new beginning of diplomatic engagement.
Tehran's flat rejection was broadcast by the highest authority in the land and the Shiite world to make its position crystal clear.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 16, 2009
On March 4, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy published a paper with two important disclosures:
Iran has enough fissile material available for making up to 50 nuclear bombs and Tehran can go from low enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium in a relative brief period of time, perhaps a year or so.
Israeli officials, while evading action to curb a nuclear-armed Iran, now go about suggesting that the Jewish state can live in its shadow.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 9, 2009
Leading a concentrated outpouring of venomous hate, Iran's supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared Wednesday, March 4, that President Barack Obama is pursuing the same "wrong path" as his predecessor in supporting Israel - "a cancerous tumor" - and he saw no change.
This was Tehran's response to the moderate language coming from the new US president and Obama's offer of talks.
President Mahmoud Ahmandinejad told the conference, which was attended by all the Palestinian factions including Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah, "The story of the Holocaust... is the biggest lie of our era."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 7, 2009
debkafile's counter-terror sources that Gaza's Hamas strongman Mahmoud A-Zahar was given an Israeli safe passage to travel from Gaza to Cairo in mid-February.
He made straight for Damascus and Tuesday, March 3, was flown to Tehran to deliver the keynote speech at a conference called by the Islamic Republic as a counterweight to the international donors' conference sponsored by the US and Egypt this week.
Cairo persuaded Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak that he could be counted on to sign a long-term truce for Gaza.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 4, 2009
The Friday sermon delivered by former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rasanjani in Tehran on Feb. 27 offered US president Barack Obama a lure and a catch, condemned Israel and threatened Russia.
Indicating Israel, he said: "'You are planting a false notion in public minds." Addressing the Russians, he said bluntly that "...even if they don't' deal with the [Bushehr] project, we can finish it on our own."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 27, 2009
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed a series of accords with Djibouti president Ismail Omar Guelle Tuesday, Feb. 24, establishing technical and vocational centers in the East African state and supporting development projects. A new protocol opened an Iranian credit line for Djibouti, whose president commended the cooperation between two nations belonging to the "great Islamic Ummah." debkafile: Tehran continues its expansionist drive beyond the Middle East to the Horn of Africa, including Somalia and Eritrea.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 25, 2009
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals the terms of the accord US president Barack Obama has secretly forged with Saudi King Abdullah and the ways in which they plan to work together in the Muslim world, the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
Moscow in contrast is deepening its ties with Tehran.
The implications of this widening divergence are examined in the latest issue of DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday. Also details of Saudi king's sweeping modernizing reforms and new appointments.
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