US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned Israel of increasing isolation in the Middle East and said "Israeli leaders must restart negotiations with the Palestinians and work to restore relations with Egypt and Turkey." Before landing in Israel Monday, Oct. 3, he also said:“Real security can only be achieved by both a strong diplomatic effort as well as a strong effort to project your military strength.”
debkafile: Israel is paying the price for not striking Iran and for Washington's evolving ties with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkey's assertiveness has raised the concern of NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen and its fellow allies. Since Thursday, Sept. 29, Turkish warships have been harassing Israeli merchant vessels in waters off Cyprus, debkafile's military sources report, ordering them to change course in a bid to assert Turkish mastery in the eastern Mediterranean. Israel has sent warplanes to fly over the areas of the incidents.
Western naval sources say the situation is getting explosive enough to spark a major confrontation.

Helped by highly sophisticated contraband weapons smuggled out of Libya, Iran and Hizballah are getting the Palestinian Hamas equipped for another round of hostilities with Israel. debkafile's military sources report that Sunday, Sept. 25, Egyptian security forces homed in near Ismailia on a large half-empty cache of advanced Libyan SA-24 anti-air infrared missiles (a version of the US Stinger). They grant Hamas high-, medium- and low-altitude capabilities. Many of the empty crates had also contained sea mines.  

Friday, Sept. 23 , the day Mahmoud Abbas applied for UN recognition of a Palestinian state, an Israeli called Asher Palmer, 25, and his one-year old son Jonathan were killed by a novel Palestinian method of murder while driving home on the Hebron road: They waylaid his oncoming car in their own vehicle and hurled a rock the size of a football at his windscreen. The Israeli police then deceived the public by calling the attack a road accident.

In their speeches to the UN General Assembly Friday, Sept. 23, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas agreed only on the importance of reviving peace talks. Otherwise they were daggers drawn.  Yet the Middle East Quartet later issued a call for both to start peace talks in a month to end within a year. First, the Palestinian leader handed UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a formal request for Palestinian membership.

Russian antiaircraft officers ambushed an Azerbaijani Air Force Israeli-made drone to gain access to its secrets, warn Israel to keep its hands off the Caspian region, and signal Tehran its willingness to cooperate in halting the spread of Azerbaijani and Israel influence.

Israel has mobilized 22,000 police alongside thousands of soldiers, declaring the country on the highest level of preparedness for violent riots Friday, Sept. 23, when the Palestinians hold prayers and rallies in support of their application for UN membership. Radical groups are planning to break into settlements and Israeli city residential areas.  The Palestinian Religious Affairs Minister has ordered all mosques, especially al Aqsa, to keep on shouting Allah is Great through loudspeakers turned up to maximum volume.

Egyptian natural gas is flowing again to Jordan – but not to Israel, debkafile reports. Cairo and Amman are keeping quiet about the resumption of supplies through the Sinai pipeline which was sabotaged five times since February. Cairo has broken off negotiations with Jerusalem on new prices - so making sure that supplies to Israel are cut off for good. As Egypt pulls away from peace ties with Israel, security is breaking down on their common border and the Israeli ambassador's return to Cairo indefinitely postponed.

The US National Intelligence Director James Clapper began a surprise visit to Ankara Sunday Sept. 18, prompted by Turkish saber-rattling against key US interests: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the information gathered by the US radar system planned for Turkey as part of the NATO missile-shield must not be shared with Israel; Monday, US Noble Energy began drilling gas off Cyprus in defiance of Turkey; and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, egged on by Ankara, headed for the UN to bid for membership.

Military tension is building up among Greece, Turkey and Israel as Cyprus prepares to start exploratory drilling for gas Monday, Sept. 19 in the face of Turkish threats. All three have placed their air and sea forces in a state of preparedness. Turkish warplanes and fighters kept watch on the rig belonging to Houston-based Noble Energy as it moved from Israel's offshore field Noa opposite Ashdod to Cyprus's Aphrodite field.  US Noble Energy and Israel's Delek are staked in both fields.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas announced Friday, Sept. 16, in Ramallah that he would ask the UN Security Council next week to recognize a Palestinian state. Once they have a state and a flag and recognition, the Palestinians would leave all other issues open for negotiation with Israel, he said. While citing the 1967 borders for a future Palestinian state in reference to his UN application, Abbas stressed that the real Palestinian borders were laid down by the UN in 1947.

Turkey's Operation Barbarossa aims to establish a naval and air force presence on six world seas while making a grab to wrest oil and gas from Israel and Greek Cyprus (Jews and Christians). DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military experts note that the Turkish Navy has 19 frigates, 14 submarines, 7 corvettes, 75 navy aircraft and 108 fast attack craft, manned by a total of 48,600 personnel. They are not up to challenging the US and European Mediterranean fleets and would be outmatched qualitatively even by Israel's much smaller navy ...

The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.

Israeli leaders focus on Palestinian UN bid for state recognition to escape grappling with far more serious issues – hostile Turkish steps, Egypt's retreat from peace norms and Hamas' military and weapons buildup.

Thursday, Sept. 15, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas went back on his assurance 24 hours earlier to Saudi, European and Egyptian officials and decided to go through with his application to the UN Security Council on Sept. 23 for the admission of a Palestinian state to the world body. This was a pointed rebuff to the Obama administration whose envoys offered to renew US ties with the Palestinians if they refrained from applying to the Security Council. Tuesday, Abbas met with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Cairo.

Israel and Greece have invoked their new, secret mutual defense pact to counter heavy Turkish sea and air movements in the eastern Mediterranean. debkafile discloses that Israel may gain the new advantage of a military presence at Greek bases following a long phone conversation Wednesday night Sept. 14 between the Israeli and Greek prime ministers. They also agreed to share intelligence. Israel's expanded cabinet of eight was called into session over the Turkish threat to its off-shore oil and gas rigs.

The Obama administration has turned down a Turkish request for drones or for the deployment of US Predators at Turkish bases until Ankara stops threatening Israel with armed attack, debkafile's military and Washington sources report.  Turkey's lack of functioning drones has crippled its military campaign waged against the Kurdish PKK rebels in conjunction with the US and Iran at a critical juncture. Since expelling the Israeli technicians, Ankara has been unable to operate 10 Israeli-made Heron drones.

Turkey sharply ratchets up its threat of war with Israel. Three Turkish frigates were ordered to the eastern Mediterranean and instructed to disable Israeli military ships if encountered outside Israel's 12-mile territorial waters. This was reported by Turkish naval sources Sept. 12 as Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was due in Cairo for a controversial visit - in defiance of the Egyptian government's effort to cool the crisis in relations with Israel.

In first new disclosures on the siege of Israel's Cairo embassy of Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile reveals the mob was led by Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Islamist groups. The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York was an early Jamaa operation under the al Qaeda label. Friday night, when the mob sacked the embassy, the Egyptian police stood by – until the rioters rifled the gunroom of a nearby police HQ.

Israel's Cairo embassy stood empty Saturday, Sept. 10 after thousands of demonstrators smashed through the wall enclosing the building, broke in and dumped the flag and hundreds of documents through the windows – some classified. debkafile: Egyptian security forces using tear gas and shooting in air failed to contain the howling mob led by Muslim Brotherhood adherents. Two Israeli military planes flew the ambassador and 80 staff home.  President Barack Obama expressed concern.