The extraordinary meekness with which the US and Israel greeted Russia's start-up of Iran's first nuclear reactor is accounted for, debkafile reports, by a secret Washington-Moscow deal whereby Russia voted with the US for UN sanctions against Iran in return for which Washington and Jerusalem tacitly assented to the activation of the Iranian reactor.  Will Israel's acquiescence extend to deals with the Palestinians?

Obama considers personally launching direct Israeli-Palestinian talks from Cairo. Not all his advisers think it's a good idea.

If his government breaks up under the weight of a security-military intrigue, he is maneuvering to save his rule as prime minister with new allies.

Sudden word from Moscow and Tehran on Aug. 11 that Russia will activate Iran's first nuclear power reactor on Aug. 21 by loading the fuel has caused a major flap in Israel in view of its military aspects.DEBKA reports: Only last week, Russian leaders assured Washington that it would not go on line this year.

Former Bush adviser John Bolton commented that once the rods are in, Israel can no longer attack this reactor because of spreading radiation.

Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah is drumming up proofs of Israeli culpability in the 2005 Hariri murder to get his own associates off the hook and force Lebanese prime minister Sa'ad Hariri to declare war on Israel.

Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah used threats of violence to toss back the bomb placed under his movement by word that the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon intends to indict high Hizballah security officials for the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

debkafile's military sources report that the tribunal's investigators have linked eight of the 20 cell phones found at the scene of the murder to Hizballah's special security and intelligence apparatus and senior commanders.

Muammar Qaddafi's son Seif al Islam may have made too much of a splash by consigning the MV Almathea (Al Amal) to challenge Israel's Gaza blockade: As Israeli warships encircled the ship Wednesday, July 14, a group of US Democratic senators' interest was drawn to his international charity which commissioned the expedition and called for its links with BP to be investigated.
The ship is now on a westerly course for Egyptian El Arish - or Libya.

Since Libyan ruler Muammar Qaddafi, 68, picked Moatassem-Billah, son number four, as his successor, his eldest son, Seif al-Islam, has schemed tirelessly to stay in the limelight and avoid being passed over as future potentate of this oil- and gas-rich nation. Seif's latest dodge, according to debkafile's intelligence sources, is the privately-launched Al-Amal (MV Almathea) for breaking Israel's naval blockade on the Gaza Strip. Awaited by the Israeli Navy Tuesday or Wednesday, Tripoli has officially disavowed the venture.

Feverish preparations are afoot in Tehran for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first visit to the Lebanese capital. Reporting this, debkafile's Iranian sources define the trip's purpose as a confrontational exercise to warn the US and Israel that full implementation of the tough new UN, US and European sanctions will provoke an Iranian war on Israel - waged from Lebanon. Ahmadinejad's trip is expected before September - with the Syrian and Qatari rulers in tow.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu keeps on vowing that Iran will not be allowed to establish an outpost on Israel's borders, but he has not lifted a finger to stop this menace ensconcing itself in the north - even though this is a gross violation of UN Security Council resolution 1701. Iran's proxy has therefore won the first round of its drive to recover the forward positions lost in the 2006 war and stands ready for the next.

The Obama-Netanyahu assurances of early direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians have run into an unexpected delay: Mahmoud Abbas has succumbed to cancer and is preparing for major abdominal surgery.

Israel has finally moved on from its fractured relationship with Turkey. The Israeli Minister of Trade and Labor Minister, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer's last-ditch bid to save the relationship by meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutolu last week was a flop.  But Israel has meanwhile welcomed Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's interest in slotting Athens into Ankara's place as Israel's strategic partner in the region.

Israel's infrastructure  minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer met Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu secretly in Zurich Wednesday, June 30 in an effort to alleviate the crisis in relations.  Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knew about the encounter, but not Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who accused the prime minister of a betrayal of trust. debkafile reports that Ankara, whose anti-Israel campaign is in full flight, saw in the initiative a mark of Israeli government weakness.

Some US intelligence circles are now suggesting that the high-ranking Hamas official Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh who died by an unknown hand in Dubai last January was not targeted for death but capture as a live hostage against the release of Gilead Shalit - along with half a dozen high-value Hamas operatives. The hostage plan was aborted when Al-Mahbouh died of the drug supposed to have doped him enough to bundle him out of the Dubai hotel.

CIA director Leon Panetta admits Iran has enough low-enriched uranium for two nuclear bombs that could be built in two years. In an interview Sunday, June 27, he virtually admitted that every effort to halt Iran's drive for a nuclear bomb had failed. Asked whether sanctions would work, he said: "Probably not." debkafile's military sources: Iran has reached this advanced stage largely because Israel's leaders have allowed Washington to hold them back from military action.

In his bid to sell the Syrian track to Obama, Netanyahu has adopted the main lines of a roadmap designed by the most pro-Syrian American diplomat, Fred Hof, which entails ceding most of Golan to Syria for an interim peace - though not its sources of water.

Israel war planners aim for tanks to stand at Damascus' gates within five days. Syria is preparing a missile assault to smash Israel's infrastructure coupled with chemical weapons.

At his meeting with President Barack Obama on July 6, Israeli prime minister will propose trading in the stalled Palestinian track for a new peace initiative with Syria based on withdrawal from the bulk of the Golan Heights.

Barring surprises, the sea campaign against Israel's naval blockade of Gaza spearheaded by Turkey may have run its course, debkafile's Middle East sources report. Beirut is close to abandoning the Lebanese convoy, Damascus has turned away requests to use its ports, Cyprus is negative and even the Iranian expedition appears snarled. In the last 24 hours, Israel won US, European and Mahmoud Abbas' support for its sea blockade after its cabinet approved the delivery of all civilian goods to Gaza over land.

US defense secretary Robert Gates reported Thursday, June 17 that the US had overhauled its missile defense plans following intelligence that Iran could fire "scores or hundreds" of short- and medium-range missiles against Europe -in salvoes rather than one or two at a time. The new US program, designed to protect NATO allies, uses sea and land-based interceptors. He did not mention Israel, but these figures mean it has fallen back sharply in the regional balance of strength, even before adding on the thousands of Hizballah rockets.