The special report commissioned by the Congressional research center on a possibly Israel strike against Iran has some spectacular new findings which debunk the Obama administration’s conventional wisdom on Israel’s capacity. For instance, Israel would only need one-third of its air force to strike Iran.

Mistrust between Washington and Jerusalem is gaining. Israel suspects that the big US-led Hormuz multinational exercise aimed more at stopping it attacking Iran than defending the Strait of Hormuz.

The Kenyan army has captured Somalia’s Indian Ocean port of Kismayo, driving Al Qaeda’s Somali franchise Al Shabaab from its last stronghold in a year-long ground, sea and air operation, aided by the US, France and Israel. Kismayo is key to controlling southern Somalia. DEBKA: It was the first time Israel’s military, police, intelligence and counterterrorism forces had taken part in an anti-al Qaeda offensive outside its borders. This outstanding success should also help block Iran’s push toward the Indian Ocean and East Africa.

Obama has concluded that nuclear diplomacy with Iran has run its course and has set a time the task of formulating end of the road benchmarks for the Islamic republic. At the same time, Tehran is playing with the temporary suspension of enrichment at Fordo by sabotage to bid ...

The Muslim Brotherhood has scheduled Oct. 10 for the start of mass protests against King Abdullah II and ordered its members to start mobilizing at least 50,000 demonstrators for daily demonstrations until he bows to their will. The king has until then to accept the MB’s demand for Jordan’s transition to a constitutional monarchy and electoral reform. debkafile also reports. Israel is worried about the Arab Spring throwing up another Islamist state next door. Saudi royals fear they are next in line.

Hamas leaders Mahmoud A-Zahar and Deputy commander of its military arm Marwan Issa spent the second week of September in Beirut and Tehran finalizing and signing protocols covering a detailed and binding commitment by the radical Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip to join Iran, Syria and Hizballah in a war on Israel, debkafile’s exclusive sources disclose. Israelis now ask what guarantees Cairo offers to offset the threat of an Iranian-orchestrated Hamas war operation against Israel from the Gaza Strip or Sinai.

Iran was stunned to discover this week how easy it was to disrupt its nuclear program, even its underground facilities. The Fordo enrichment plant was disabled and damaged by the simple device of cutting its power lines by a series of blasts. No major military, air or missile operations ...

As Israel and Hizballah teetered on the brink of war, Iran airlifted elite Al Qods units into Lebanon and Syria to shore up the war capabilities and retilt the military balance against Israel.

King Abdullah faces a Muslim Brotherhood ultimatum to announce before the end of September his acceptance of constitutional rule and democratic elections or go down under an Arab Spring insurrection.

Israeli reservists drafted at no notice, Air Force, Central Command and other IDF units were flown to Israel’s northern Golan border early Wednesday, Sept. 19, for a surprise IDF exercise under the codename “National Asset.” Since early September, the Israeli Defense Forces have been in the midst of preparations which have the appearance of readiness for a real war rather than an exercise. Those preparations peaked Wednesday under the codename which indicated its goal: the defense of national assets.

The first US-Turkish backed steps for creating safe havens in Syria and possible Western bombardment of the Syrian army have brought the Middle East close to two dangerous junctures: The Syrian army’s use of chemical and biological weapons, and an outbreak of hostilities between Hizballah and Israel – which nearly happened in mid-week, debkafile reports.
Washington disclosed Friday that Syria’s chemical arsenal was bigger and more widely scattered than suspected hitherto and, therefore, the US may have lost count.

US, Iranian and Israel planners have moved past discussion on whether Israel can be prevented from attacking Iran before the November election and are now talking about their various versions of a second strike option, which all agree will be more devastating than the first.

Turkish army officers have assumed direct command of at least two Syrian rebel brigades fighting Bashar Assad’s government forces, according to debkafile’s exclusive sources. This step and its future expansion, discussed during CIA Director David Petraeus’ talks in Ankara, have sent military tensions rocketing on Israel’s northern borders with Syria and Lebanon. A high alert was declared for Israel units on the Syrian and Lebanese borders for a possible backlash after unusual military movements were detected in Syria and among Hizballah concentrations.

To keep the truce with the Islamist terrorist groups in Sinai in place, Egypt is releasing dozens of jailed Salafist gunmen every few days in batches, so feeding them a steady supply of reinforcements. Cairo is also in negotiation with Bedouin tribal elders to grant a body of 6,000 Al-Qaeda-linked Salafi gunmen the status of an approved, independent militia. Armed with up-to-date Egyptian weapons, this militia is to be charged with responsibility for maintaining security. Israel is taxed with a new headache in the south.

In its bluntest message yet, the Obama administration declared that Israel is on its own if it attacks Iran. Thursday, Aug. 30, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reiterated that an Israeli attack would “delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” adding impatiently: “I don't want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it." Sanctions were having an effect, said the general. But as he spoke the IAEA reported a 31 percent jump in Iran’s enriched uranium stock.

Tehran was forced to eat crow and backtrack on its ploy for winning international recognition for its nuclear program by showing Non-Aligned Summit leaders and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon around its nuclear sites. The tour was planned for Wednesday, Aug. 29. However, debkafile reports that Washington intervened Tuesday and “advised” NAM participants as well as Ban to turn Tehran down on its nuclear tour, which was to have included the suspected nuclear-related explosives testing lab at Parchin.

Al Qaeda missiles struck Kibbutz Kholit opposite the Egyptian-Gazan-Israeli border junction and an IDF post in the Kissufim district Monday, Aug. 28, debkafile reveals, in line with the terrorists' tactic of holding Israel hostage as a lever for bending Cairo to their will.  The IDF communiqué omitted to mention those attacks - only the Qassam rocket targeting Sderot that morning.  Al Qaeda’s affiliates timed their strikes for derailing talks the Egyptian defense minister and army chief held Monday with Sinai Bedouin chiefs.

For the first time, a thread links the triple rocket attack on the Israeli town of Sderot, with the two terrorist cells captured in Riyadh and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – Sunday, Aug. 26, debkafile reports. Both were conceived by Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP has ordered its Sinai cells and Egyptian and Palestinian offshoots to step up their attacks and hold Israeli towns, Eilat and Sderot, hostage against pursuit. Fears that chemicals held by the Saudi cell may have reached Sinai.
 

A powerful US administration faction is pushing hard for military intervention in Syria now. It argues the time is ripe and fast action would have the added value of delaying an Israeli strike against Iran. Jumping into the fray, the latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday judged the strength of the anti-interventionists surrounding President Barack Obama. Their only concession was the president’s threat this week to Bashar Assad against using chemical and biological weapons.
So how close is America to a military operation in Syria?
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Some Western intelligence circles suggest that Israel may choose to disable Iran’s nuclear program by eliminating its leaders.