Saudi Arabia is exploring dialogue with its great regional rival Iran for ending the Syrian conflict and assuring Lebanon’s political future, debkafile’s Gulf sources report. Riyadh has given up on US policy for Syria in view of Russia's and Iran's unbending support for Bashar Assad; his battlefield gains aided by Hizballah and Iranian Bassij forces; and Turkey’s failure to react to the Reyhanli bombings. These perceptions generated a get-together between the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers Monday, May 13. in Jeddah.

As the Syrian army makes further gains against rebel forces, debkafile reports Hizballah and Israel appear to be in the process of relocating their lines of confrontation from Lebanon to Syria. An Israeli enclave is forming around the IDF medical facilities on the Golan, while Hizballah is taking command of three pockets.

Israeli military activity was reported Saturday, May 4 in Lebanon too - and not just over Syria.
US sources said earlier Israeli warplanes had struck targets in Syria including a chemical weapons depot outside Damascus, firing missiles remotely from Lebanese air space and the Golan.

US officials recently gave a video demonstration of an upgraded bunker buster bomb able to destroy Iran’s Fordo underground enrichment plant - in a bid to dissuade Israel from a unilateral attack on Iran, while thousands of Basij militiamen arrived in Syria from Iran.

The Israeli reserves call-up for the Syrian and Lebanese borders will continue until the end of the week, ready for a "military maneuver" next Sunday, May 5, debkafile reports.
 

The US and Israel have agreed on the circumstances that would warrant their intervention in Syria’s use of chemical weapons. For now, they are holding off even though Assad promises more air attacks on Lebanon to bully President Michel Sleiman into expelling Syrian rebels.

The Syrian conflict spread in earnest Monday, March 18, when the Syrian Air Force conducted bombing runs over Syrian rebel jumping-off bases inside Lebanon and border valleys used for smuggling men and arms into Syria. debkafile reports exclusively: Syrian ruler Bashar Assad Saturday gave Lebanese President Michel Suleiman 48 hours to sack his chief of staff – or else face air attack. The ultimatum expired Monday. Assad may now be preparing similar treatment for Jordan, timing it for President Barack Obama’s visit this week.

Middle East tensions are spiraling six days before US President Barack Obama lands in the Middle East. Thursday night, March 14, an Iranian fighter jet tried to bring down a US Predator drone over the Straits of Hormuz – until a US fighter escort fired warning flares.  Syria threatened to bomb Lebanon unless Lebanese Islamists stopped pouring into Syria to fight with Jabhat a-Nusra. Three Russian warships carrying marines entered Beirut port for the first time after the Syrian Tartus port was judged unsafe.

Shiite forces, Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi, are mustering their strength in Syria to head off al Qaeda’s Syrian momentum carrying over into Iraq and Lebanon.

If Russian personnel pushed the button of the anti-air missile that allegedly downed an Israeli done over the Lebanese Beqaa Valley, it carried a message from Moscow to Jerusalem to that Lebanon as well as Syria is under its protection.

Contrary to reports of Hizballah attacks on Syrian villages in the Homs region, a thousand Hizballah militiamen have moved in to defend those Shiite, pro-Assad villages against rebel attack. debkafile reveals: Syrian rebel Islamists are receiving anti-tank missiles from Kosovo and Bosnia. They give the rebels an edge in battle with Syrian troops, but also arm Jabhat al-Nusra for a push into Lebanon to strike Hizballah in its Beqaa Valley strongholds. The Syrian conflict now confronts the Sunni Jabhat al-Nusra head-on with the Shiite Hizballah.

As Syrian rebels advance on the heart of Damascus, Assad arms the 4^th Division with chemical weapons for use if necessary to halt the advance. Al Qaeda has moved shop to Lebanon and is harassing Hizballah with nightly raids.

Obama was convinced that by sundering Assad’s military links with Hizballah, Iran would be isolated and Assad bereft of his regime’s most active support and shield.

Washington acted fast to hold back Lebanon’s anti-Syrian Lebanese forces from avenging the assassination of Lebanon’s top intelligence chief, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan to save Lebanon from being ripped apart by a civil war. Assad and Nasrallah were allowed to get away with it.

As Israel and Hizballah teetered on the brink of war, Iran airlifted elite Al Qods units into Lebanon and Syria to shore up the war capabilities and retilt the military balance against Israel.

Russia is not averse to Bashar Assad’s exile from Damascus to his retreat in the Alawite Mountains because his army would move west with him and the new coastal enclave would secuire secure Russia’s Tartus and Latakia naval and marine bases (see attached map).

Nasrallah finds his Hizballah is growing increasingly unpopular at home for aiding and supporting Bashar Assad against the Syrian uprising. He is losing allies right and left and up against the choice between defying his masters in Tehran and losing face at home.

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. debkafile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

The upgrading and interconnection of two Russian-equipped Middle East electronic and surveillance stations – on Jabal Al Harrah south of Damascus opposite Israel’s Sea of Galilee, and Lebanon’s Mt. Sannine - are tailored by Moscow to give Tehran early warning of a US or Israeli attack, debkafile reports. The two facilities now cover all of Israel and Jordan, the Gulf of Aqaba and northern Saudi Arabia, as well as US and Israeli naval and aerial Mediterranean movements up to Cyprus and Greece.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has hired hit squads to kill top Lebanese government, intelligence and security officials whom he suspects of helping insurrectionists and Saudi and Qatari agents smuggle fighters and weapons into the country to fight his regime. debkafile's counter-terror sources report that one Lebanese hit squad was captured and confessed to being armed and assigned by Syrian Military Intelligence to murder the two heads of Lebanese Internal Security by rigging bomb cars in Beirut. A second plot targeted a Lebanese lawmaker.