Obama and Erdogan had divided up Arab Revolt missions between them, targeting another two Arab rulers, Muammar Qaddafi and Bashar Assad, for eventual eviction – first by diplomacy, then by force - when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi jumped in with a demand for NATO to halt hostilities in ...

Three months after the first NATO bombardments in Libya, Italy has called for an immediate halt in hostilities "to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians." debkafile: Since 90 per cent of NATO's air strikes come from bases and command centers in Italy, Rome's pullout badly jolts the entire war effort. Even if France carries on operations from the aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle and Britain from its air bases in Cyprus, the war on Muammar Qaddafi will be seriously jeopardized.

Early Sunday, June 18, NATO bombers struck an apartment building in Tripoli - killing, according to government sources, up to 9 civilians. NATO later admitted civilian casualties caused by a missile after its earlier denial.  The conviction in Arab and African capitals is gaining credence in the West that NATO has made regime change its primary goal. It is feared in Congress that the White House may let America's  mightiest air carrier, USS George HW Bush, be drawn into the last coalition shot to finish Qaddafi off.

The US is willing to replenish NATO's empty missile and smart bomb arsenals but needs to know who is footing the bill. Robert Gates like British and French Libyan war commanders don't believe in NATO's ability to topple Muammar Qaddafi.

Russia cited NATO's "inclusive bombing of Tripoli" as grounds for objecting to the new UK-French-Portuguese  motion condemning the Assad regime for its violent crackdown on protest, and any other UN Security Council action against Syria. After a more than $4 billion outlay, debkafile reports NATO's campaign against Muammar Qaddafi is running short of funds and suffering war "fatigue." The US, Britain and France consider dipping into the estimated $45 million of frozen Qaddafi funds in their banks. Qaddafi' commands about $1 trillion in cash.

Bashar Assad and Muammar Qaddafi look like surviving the "Arab Spring" revolts against them. Neither is buckling under the various batteries of US and Western pressure. Assad has begun regaining control of his country, while all five of Qaddafi's brigades have survived NATO pounding intact. To break the impasse, debkafile sources reveal that on the G8 sidelines, Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev closed a secret deal: Assad would stay and Qaddafi must go.

The Saudis plan to carve out a new Arab republic in southern Yemen under their thumb and let civil war divide the country in two. They have dumped Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and US objectives in the country.

During his London visit, Obama turned down British quid pro quo offer to trade stepped-up US military intervention in the Libya war in return delayed British troop drawdown in Afghanistan. US-British differences on Libya war remained unbridged.

Combat in Libya is winding down. debkafile's exclusive sources report that Muammar Qaddafi and the rebel commanders are close to a series of accords for ending the war after two weeks of secret talks. Fighting on the ground has receded to small pockets where a few rebel chiefs are still holding out, while the primary battlefields of Misrata, Brega and Ajdabia have fallen silent.
NATO warplanes again pounded Tripoli Wednesday night May 25 still hoping to eliminate Qaddafi and win the war.

After sitting on the fence for six months amid the Arab uprisings, Moscow now takes a stand, capitalizing on the positions slipping out of the United States grasp in the turbulent slipstream of the Arab Revolt.

NATO's lingering two-month campaign in Libya is whittling down Muammar Qaddafi's strength but also sapping its own. debkafile's military sources report that Washington and NATO HQ suspect Qaddafi is now getting early warning of incoming coalition strikes from advanced electronic devices newly installed at a foreign embassy in Tripoli. The fact remains that without substantial US military input NATO's European members cannot break Qaddafi's strength. Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are taking note.

The Libyan war took a dangerous turn with the killing of Saif al-Arab, 29, the youngest of Muammar Qaddafi's six sons, and three of his grandsons by a NATO air strike in Tripoli Saturday night, April 30.  Muammar and his wife were present in the targeted villa but unhurt. NATO has not confirmed this report. debkafile: The Libyan ruler's resolve to fight the Western alliance will be strengthened. He is expected to start seeking out NATO targets inside and outside Libya.

Hours after US and British figures called for "the head of the snake" in Libya to be cut off, NATO warplanes early Monday, April 25, pulverized a building in Muammar Qaddafi's Bab al-Aziziyah working compound in Tripoli, wrecking his offices and conference room. A government official called the strike an attempt on the Libyan ruler's life which coalition spokesmen did not deny. Qaddafi's whereabouts were not disclosed.
debkafile: NATO acted in frustration over Qaddafi's upper hand in the war.

Arms and military personnel are streaming to Libya. Thursday, April 21, President Barack Obama authorized two armed Predator drones for breaking the siege of Misratah, while British, French and Italian military officers headed for rebel headquarters in Benghazi, part of a military aid package from the US, Britain, France, Italy and Qatar. Muammar Qaddafi is restocking his arsenals with Chinese, Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian and Serbian hardware, along with combat personnel from East Europe and the former Yugoslavia.

Two months after Muammar Qaddafi's vow "to purge Libya, inch by inch, house by house, zenga by zenga," he is closer to making good on his boast than even he imagined.  With the US out of the military picture, NATO allies are short of warplanes for stopping Qaddafi's progress and are divided over their mission goal. At odds on how to go forward, they are dropping by the wayside as Qaddafi gains zenga after zenga in Misratah and Ajdabiyeh.

The Libyan war has reached a stalemate. Only two NATO members, France and Britain are left willing to carry on fighting for the rebels. Both are racing each other to be the first to quit.

Away from the cameras focusing on the African Union peacemaking delegation in Tripoli Sunday, April 10 headed by South African President Jacob Zuma, debkafile's exclusive intelligence sources disclose German Chancellor Angela Merkel's discreet but key role in the multinational thrust to broker an end to the Libyan war. Her emissary arrived quietly in the Libyan capital with NATO consent. After refusing to join the war effort against Qaddafi, she now spearheads the bid to end it.

While no one admits this, the military campaign to topple Muammar Qaddafi has stalled with no solution other than diplomacy. The first peace proposal has come from the coalition's target, Qaddafi himself.

Obama is seen in the Middle East and North Africa as quitting in the middle of popular turmoil in one Arab country after another leaving a trail of instability.

The London conference ended Tuesday, March 29 divided between the US and Britain in favor of arming the Libyan rebels and France and Italy against. Control passed to a “contact group” with the vague brief to map out Libya’s future. The Libyan conflict was thus relegated to the same uncertain fate as the other Arab uprisings, whose outcomes are unknowable. debkafile nevertheless discerns half a dozen fixed points, not all of them favorable, in the fog of uncertainty: