DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 17, 2004
According to debkafile's political analysts, the US and British leaders suddenly developed their enthusiasm for the Sharon plan when they saw it is mostly about withdrawal, not really unilateral and contains only a marginal disengagement quotient. It looked very much like an opportunity to transpose a version of the Iraqi coalition into the Palestinian-Israeli sphere. This transposition, as put to him by the British prime minister, convinced the US president to drop his objections to the Sharon plan and embrace it in an epic U-turn. The Iraq analogy, rather than concern for Sharon's political survival, was behind his two affirmations, for the first time by any US president, that "major population centers" on the West Bank have created new realities, and that the resolution of the Palestinian refugee problem must be in a Palestinian state rather than Israel. Neither Bush nor Blair minds Sharon capitalizing on their support for gains at home. Even the Likud poll is useful for concentrating Israeli and Palestinian minds until it is too late to change certain facts. Hence Sharon's blitz campaign to get as much as possible done before people wake up.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 13, 2004
US president George W. Bush's appointment book for the remainder of April reflects a Middle East without Iraq. Two days after seeing Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in Crawford on Monday, April 12, he meets Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon in Washington and Abdullah King of Jordan on Friday, April 21. No Iraqi leader joins the procession of Middle East visitors because no suitable prime minister for the new federal republic of Iraq is so far visible. Although Bush would have preferred to devote the week to the crisis besetting Iraq, he cannot cancel visits that were scheduled before the April 3 outbreak of Iraq hostilities. This seems to indicate a lack of intelligence forewarning. The White House must have been warned in general terms that a Sunni-Shiite spring offensive was in the offing - but without a date and word of the tactical coordination forged between the radical Shiite Moqtada Sadr's Mehdi Army militia and the Al Farouk Battalions, which is made up mainly of crack troops of Saddam's old Special Republican Guards plus some al Qaeda elements.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 10, 2003
Pressure from the Bush administration is getting to Syrian President Bashar Assad. It is catching him wrong-footed in mid-maneuver for the rejuvenation of his antiquated government while fending off popular disaffection. These days, he never misses an opportunity to labor to foreign visitors that Syria and Lebanon should have a "road map to peace" just like the Israelis and the Palestinians. In other words, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's willingness to promise the Palestinians a state of their own by 2005 ahead of negotiations, ought to be translated into a comparable advance Israeli pledge to return the Golan to Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 25, 2003
What has led Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to fit unreservedly into America's geo-strategic box for the postwar Middle East? What has President George W. Bush promised him for saying yes to the Middle East road map, a document that no one except its authors believes in? What role is assigned the Palestinians? And how much will it cost Israel? Sharon was offered three main incentives:First-America's systematic disarmament of Israel's most dangerous enemies has been built into the Bush master-plan - Iraq first; shortly, an attempt to dissolve Iran's nuclear weapons option (see separate article on this page), followed by steps to eliminate Syria's missile systems and weapons of mass destruction and the Hizballah's military capabilities. In the long term, Washington will almost certainly aim at cutting short the development of Egyptian and Libyan N-bombs.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 10, 2003
After undergoing several metamorphoses since its formulation by the Quartet, the Middle East road map looks rather like a skimpy blanket pulled over Ariel Sharon, Colin Powell, Bashar Assad, Abu Mazen and Yasser Arafat while each keeps to his own bed. Saturday, May 10, the blanket was whisked away, draining of its structural content the heralded visit by US secretary of state Powell to Israel and the Palestinians. Correspondingly, the regional context of his trip swelled in importance, its focus switching from the Israel-Palestinian conflict over to US relations with Iran, Syria and Lebanon - a higher priority in the post-Iraq war period.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 1, 2003
The long-awaited road map charted by the United States, the United Nations, Russia and the European Union was presented without fanfare to the Israeli and Palestinian governments on Wednesday, April 30, only 16 hours after a suicide bomber killed three people and injured 60 at Mike's Place, a seafront Blues club near the US embassy in Tel Aviv. With an eye toward placating an Arab world angered by the US war in Iraq and propping up Washington's main ally, British prime minister Tony Blair, President George W. Bush made good on his promise to hand the peace plan to both sides once the Palestinians' first prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas aka Abu Mazen took office. debkafile's diplomatic sources are beginning to believe that the road map has so many obstacles stacked up against it that it may in the end lead nowhere.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 2, 2003
Ariel Sharon's second government held its first cabinet meeting in Jerusalem Sunday, March 2. This is most probably his last term of office as prime minister. Barring an early election before the 16th Knesset runs full term, he expects to bow out in 2007. Above and beyond the urgent task of salvaging Israel's battered economy, Sharon has set himself four long-term goals:
1. Determining Israel's permanent frontiers
This objective Sharon hopes to achieve in partnership with US president George W. Bush, with whom he enjoys a close rapport. In expectation of the US-led war against Iraq and Saddam Hussein's overthrow being but one tile in America's redesigned ethno-geopolitical mosaic for the Middle East and Persian Gulf - as debkafile has been reporting for more than a year - he expects Israel's frontiers with regard to the West Bank and Gaza Strip to be part and parcel of the wholesale transformation of an entire world region. An American victory might even stretch Israel's frontiers, not shrink them, as dictated in every peace plan put forward to date.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 2, 2002
Every few weeks, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak tells Israel it must resume negotiations with the Palestinians that will lead them to a state. But on Sunday, December 1, he went a lot further. Addressing a Muslim clerical group in Cairo at an occasion marking the final prayer of the Ramadan holy month, he declared that international terror is not religious; nor is it the fault of Muslims or Arabs, but their reaction to political injustices meted out by the "international community".
The Egyptian leader thus became the first Arab leader to say out loud what every Arab and Muslim ruler believes - that Islamic terror, including suicide homicides, is a justified means of venting their sense of injustice towards the non-Muslim world.
Mubarak is not just talking. He is in the middle of political action, hauling out the Israeli-Palestinian issue and providing his auspices for a so-called attempt to draw Arafat's Fatah and the fundamentalist Hamas into an accord for ceasing their campaign of murder inside Israel, the pre-requisite for renewed Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
Under cover of this internationally lauded initiative, Mubarak has a quite different - if not opposite - agenda, as revealed in the latestDEBKA-Net-Weekly.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 12, 2002
For Yasser Arafat, suicide attacks in Kibbutz Metzer, at the Karkur Junction or on Jerusalem's Jaffa Street are not enough. In the last few hours, reports have reached debkafile's military and intelligence sources that the three thousands Jordanian special forces and police, after sealing off the southern towns of Ma'an and Kerak for three days and battling local Islamic zealots, are closing in on their quarry: the assassins who shot dead the senior American diplomat, Lawrence Foley, on his doorstep in Amman on October 28, and their dispatchers. The wanted men include Iraqi military intelligence agents and Palestinian members of the Arab Liberation Front, whose leader, Abul Abbas, has his headquarters in Baghdad.
The diplomat, a senior USAID administrator, was shot dead by a professional marksman who fired 8 bullets from a silenced weapon.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 4, 2002
This week, two Egyptian TV channels begin running an extravagantly-produced serial based on the notorious Protocols of the Elders of Zion, an anti-Jewish document fabricated by the Tsar's secret police in the early 20th century and decisively judged a forgery by historians. It will be aired nightly during the peak viewing period of the Muslim Ramadan, by two Egyptian channels - Dream TV, a private satellite channel, and the state-run Channel 2.
debkafile's Middle East sources report "The Horse without Horseman" was produced by Arab Radio and Television of Saudi Arabia as an epic that was written, directed and played by Egyptians. It portrays the fictional Elders, the purported blueprint for Jewish global domination, as historical fact and, in a mishmash of periods, makes it also the guiding principle of Israeli policy. A director of the program says the series "is based on the history of Zionism".
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 21, 2002
Addressing the French speaking nations' summit that opened in Beirut Friday October 18, the first to take place in an Arab capital, French President Jacques Chirac made an important point: The war on terrorism, he said, should be fought "without mercy", yet conducted "with respect for human rights and the rule of law".
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 26, 2002
The construction of a new ring road around Damascus was the pretext for an outbreak of popular anti-government fury in the Syrian capital this week. Until now, stringent measures by the Syrian authorities have kept any hint of the unrest from leaking out.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 3, 2002
Iran has drawn up an elaborate war plan of its own to counter the approaching US campaign against Iraq. Syria, Lebanon, the Hizballah and the Palestinians have been enlisted to provoke a massive confrontation with Israel that will serve as a second front and hamstring the US offensive. This is revealed exclusively by debkafile's Iranian and Middle East sources, in the wake of a secret visit that Iran's deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, Mohammad Sadr, paid to Syria and Lebanon this week.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2, 2002
Informed Arab circles, including high Saudi and Egyptian officials, are wondering what lies behind an order the Syrian president Bashar Assad has just issued to the radical Damascus-based Palestinian "Fronts" to break off all operational ties with Yasser Arafat. debkafile's Middle East sources say the directive applies to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front from the Liberation of Palestine; the Hamas and Jihad Islami, both of whom maintain headquarters in the Syrian capital, turned their backs on Arafat some time ago. The Palestinian leader finds himself ostracized, therefore, not only by the Americans and Israelis, but also by Syria and its Palestinian proteges.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2, 2002
In a pivotal through unannounced development last week, 300 troops of the Jordanian Army's Palestinian Al Bader Brigade crossed the Allenby Bridge into the West Bank as the harbingers of the US program for displacing the Palestinian Authority's terror-tainted security force operated by Yasser Arafat. According to debkafile's military and Palestinian sources, within 24 hours of its arrival, the vanguard Jordanian force took charge of security in the Bethlehem-Beit Jala-Beit Sahur area abutting south Jerusalem, deferring directly to the new Palestinian interior minister Gen. Abdel Razzek Yahya and collaborating with US CIA and Israeli liaison officers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 12, 2002
Notwithstanding official denials, the 4,000 US troops who began landing in Aqaba Monday, August 12, will be transferred to the northeast Jordanian desert region bordering on Iraq. Officially, they have come for a three-week joint exercise with the Jordanian army. But debkafile's military sources report that the American increment supplements the US force already stationed in Jordan, raising the total to close to 8,000 US troops.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2002
The economic promise presented by the new Middle East strategy stays firmly under wraps - no less than the covert start of military operations. Israeli's deep budget cutbacks, the spreading poverty and agonies of unemployment are profoundly demoralizing - and there is more to come. Critics of the Sharon government, like former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, have been encouraged to look forward to is imminent demise.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2002
Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has quietly assembled a new, trusted team to assist in the charting of Israel's Middle East role in the post-Saddam, post-Arafat era. Sharon's planning, a closely guarded secret not shared with his own ministers, is tightly woven into the design for the defeat of global terror which President George W. Bush began plotting after America's September 11 shock.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 13, 2002
An assessment of the current Turkish political turmoil's potential for holding up the US campaign against Iraq, is the errand bringing US deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz to Ankara next week. Incirlik and Adana, where the US air force bases its F-15, F-16 and AWACS aircraft, are important launch pads for striking at northern Iraq and providing air cover for the pro-US Kurdish and Turkoman contingents recruited for the US offensive to topple the Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 15, 2002
On Wednesday, June 12, out of the blue, the Iraqi foreign ministry issued a far from routine communique: It vilified Israel's launch of a new spy satellite (Ofek-5 on May 28) as posing a "threat to Arab national security as a whole...providing additional evidence" of Israel's "hostile and aggressive intentions towards Arab states" and exposing its quest to expand its "alien" presence and spread its hegemony over the region. Arab states were urged to "take all necessary measures to face and contain the repercussions" of the missile launch.