The rush of military advances claimed by Libyan rebels and the rumored near collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's army and his imminent flight are designed, debkafile's sources report, as a smokescreen for current occurrences. One is the semi-secret opening of Libyan government-rebel talks on the Tunisian island of Djerba Saturday and their significant progress. Another is the deep divisions in the rebel leadership. debkafile has for weeks been reporting on talks afoot on Qaddafi's incremental departure from power. 

An al Qaeda branch known as the Al-jamaa Al-islamiya Al-Mokatila is widely believed to be closely associated with rebel leader Mustafa Abdul Jalil and suspected of murdering the rebel commander Maj. Gen. Abdel-Fattah Younis on his behalf. This confirms Muammar Qaddafi's long-held allegations that al Qaeda is part of ...

Gen. Abdel Fatah Younis, commander of the Libyan rebel forces fighting Muammar Qaddafi, was put to death on the orders of Mustapha Abdul Jalil, head of the rebel TNC, debkafile's sources report. TNC officers abducted him and two aides and shot them in the head 20 kilometers outside Benghazi.

Jalil wanted the powerful Younis out of the way before the start of peace negotiations, for fear he would beat his own path to Qaddafi and head the future government alongside Saif al-Islam.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe persuaded the Cameron government climb down from its high Libyan horse and accept that diplomacy is the only sensible option for ending the war. The UK is in no position to dictate terms to Muammar Qaddafi. NATO objects to being left holding the baby.

The Obama administration is willingly handing the diplomatic lead for ending the Libyan crisis to Moscow having concluded that America no longer commands the resources for carrying global burdens on its own. Muammar Qaddafi, supported by Russia and Africa, will insist on staying in power until the agreed transition ...

In its coming issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly analyzes expectations from the negotiations already afoot (amid violence and setbacks) between Muammar Qaddafi, on one side, and the US, Russia, NATO and the rebels, on the other. Still in control of Libya's army, biggest tribes, cities and oil, Qaddafi will loom large over Libya's future - even after he steps down.
The stalling of the Arab Revolt's spread obliges the US, Britain and France to reassess their Middle East positions.

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As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Friday, July 15, informed the Libya Contact Group in Istanbul that the US recognized the rebel National Transitional Council (TNC) "until a fully representational interim government can be established," Muammar Qaddafi declared "We aim for victory – not compromise!" and launched his troops on a new operation against rebels in the west. His object was to improve his bargaining position in peace negotiations debkafile reports are underway with the US through Moscow.

Obama's acceptance of the Russian-Libyan formula opens the way for ending the Libyan war by Muammar Qaddafi's departure from power – not the country – making way for transition administration and elections. His sons and loyalists will run for office. The format for Syria expels Bashar Assad and all ...

The Libyan war virtually ended Thursday morning, July 14, when US President Barack Obama called Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to hand Moscow the lead in peace negotiations for Muammar Qaddafi to step down and make way for a transitional administration. He thereby accepted the Russian-Libyan peace formula over NATO's heads. Instead of standing in the dock in The Hague, Qaddafi and his sons will sit at talks for Libya's next regime.

Wednesday, July 6, the Palestinian Authority notified the Obama administration that early next week it would file a request with the UN Security Council for admission to the UN as a full member recognized as an independent state within the 1967 borders. But debkafile reports the US got in first, having agreed with European powers and Russia to have the request put on ice by the Security Council consenting to discuss it behind closed doors - without setting a date.

Libyan Ruler Muammar Qaddafi's threat to "throw ourselves on Europe like swarms of locusts or bees" to attack "your homes, your offices, your families" may be meant to scare NATO off its coming all-out offensive to kill or oust him – or may be for real. If forced to quit, debkafile reports he could seek asylum with friendly African Sahel tribes like the al Qaeda-linked Tuareg, which also provide him with mercenaries. From there, he could orchestrate a campaign of terror.

Only two Arab autocrats have succumbed to six popular uprisings: four have survived. NATO's score in Libya is zero to one as Europe's war sustainability is hit by the falling euro Two countries are in the grip of civil war and two undergoing partition. Yet Barack Obama is grimly ...

The chaotic slipstream of the Arab Revolt is keeping the sensitive oil industry and the nuclear arms race situation in constant turmoil.  Saudi Arabia is ready to cripple Iran's oil exports and strike Syria's energy resources. Berlusconi hopes to beat Obama to an deal for Libyan oil by secretly ...

Obama and Erdogan had divided up Arab Revolt missions between them, targeting another two Arab rulers, Muammar Qaddafi and Bashar Assad, for eventual eviction – first by diplomacy, then by force - when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi jumped in with a demand for NATO to halt hostilities in ...

Three months after the first NATO bombardments in Libya, Italy has called for an immediate halt in hostilities "to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians." debkafile: Since 90 per cent of NATO's air strikes come from bases and command centers in Italy, Rome's pullout badly jolts the entire war effort. Even if France carries on operations from the aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle and Britain from its air bases in Cyprus, the war on Muammar Qaddafi will be seriously jeopardized.

The Arab Revolt erupted in Tunisia on Dec. 18, 2010, exactly six months ago. The latest  DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday offers the first interim report: The uprisings are log-jammed after ousting two Arab presidents: Three rulers, Saudi King Abdullah, Qaddafi and Assad, defy the US and Europe and Yemen is breaking up. Qaddafi, Assad and Saleh are evoking tribal and clan allegiances to survive.
So where does this leave Obama, Netanyahu and Erdogan?
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Early Sunday, June 18, NATO bombers struck an apartment building in Tripoli - killing, according to government sources, up to 9 civilians. NATO later admitted civilian casualties caused by a missile after its earlier denial.  The conviction in Arab and African capitals is gaining credence in the West that NATO has made regime change its primary goal. It is feared in Congress that the White House may let America's  mightiest air carrier, USS George HW Bush, be drawn into the last coalition shot to finish Qaddafi off.

The US is willing to replenish NATO's empty missile and smart bomb arsenals but needs to know who is footing the bill. Robert Gates like British and French Libyan war commanders don't believe in NATO's ability to topple Muammar Qaddafi.

The Arab revolts are resolving themselves into bids for getting rid of three rulers who refuse to step down, Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh, who survived an assassination bid and promises to return as good as new; Syria's Bashar Assad, whom the West allows to survive, and Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, ...

Russia cited NATO's "inclusive bombing of Tripoli" as grounds for objecting to the new UK-French-Portuguese  motion condemning the Assad regime for its violent crackdown on protest, and any other UN Security Council action against Syria. After a more than $4 billion outlay, debkafile reports NATO's campaign against Muammar Qaddafi is running short of funds and suffering war "fatigue." The US, Britain and France consider dipping into the estimated $45 million of frozen Qaddafi funds in their banks. Qaddafi' commands about $1 trillion in cash.