DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 28, 2011
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe persuaded the Cameron government climb down from its high Libyan horse and accept that diplomacy is the only sensible option for ending the war. The UK is in no position to dictate terms to Muammar Qaddafi. NATO objects to being left holding the baby.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly July 19, 2011
In its coming issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly analyzes expectations from the negotiations already afoot (amid violence and setbacks) between Muammar Qaddafi, on one side, and the US, Russia, NATO and the rebels, on the other. Still in control of Libya's army, biggest tribes, cities and oil, Qaddafi will loom large over Libya's future - even after he steps down.
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 14, 2011
The Libyan war virtually ended Thursday morning, July 14, when US President Barack Obama called Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to hand Moscow the lead in peace negotiations for Muammar Qaddafi to step down and make way for a transitional administration. He thereby accepted the Russian-Libyan peace formula over NATO's heads. Instead of standing in the dock in The Hague, Qaddafi and his sons will sit at talks for Libya's next regime.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2011
Libyan Ruler Muammar Qaddafi's threat to "throw ourselves on Europe like swarms of locusts or bees" to attack "your homes, your offices, your families" may be meant to scare NATO off its coming all-out offensive to kill or oust him – or may be for real. If forced to quit, debkafile reports he could seek asylum with friendly African Sahel tribes like the al Qaeda-linked Tuareg, which also provide him with mercenaries. From there, he could orchestrate a campaign of terror.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 24, 2011
Only two Arab autocrats have succumbed to six popular uprisings: four have survived. NATO's score in Libya is zero to one as Europe's war sustainability is hit by the falling euro Two countries are in the grip of civil war and two undergoing partition. Yet Barack Obama is grimly determined to complete his Arab regime change mission.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 22, 2011
Three months after the first NATO bombardments in Libya, Italy has called for an immediate halt in hostilities "to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians." debkafile: Since 90 per cent of NATO's air strikes come from bases and command centers in Italy, Rome's pullout badly jolts the entire war effort. Even if France carries on operations from the aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle and Britain from its air bases in Cyprus, the war on Muammar Qaddafi will be seriously jeopardized.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 20, 2011
debkafile reports war fever in and around Syria after Syrian President Bashar Assad's speech Monday, June 20, sparked riots by disappointed protesters in Damascus and Latakia. Syria airspace remains open to civilian traffic although Cypriot sources earlier reported it closed. Turkish military helicopters are reported infiltrating northern Syria on reconnaissance missions and Arab sources report NATO is planning to fly extra troops from Spanish and German bases to the Izmir Air base in western Turkey to expand the current number of 400.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 19, 2011
Early Sunday, June 18, NATO bombers struck an apartment building in Tripoli - killing, according to government sources, up to 9 civilians. NATO later admitted civilian casualties caused by a missile after its earlier denial. The conviction in Arab and African capitals is gaining credence in the West that NATO has made regime change its primary goal. It is feared in Congress that the White House may let America's mightiest air carrier, USS George HW Bush, be drawn into the last coalition shot to finish Qaddafi off.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 16, 2011
The US is willing to replenish NATO's empty missile and smart bomb arsenals but needs to know who is footing the bill. Robert Gates like British and French Libyan war commanders don't believe in NATO's ability to topple Muammar Qaddafi.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 9, 2011
Russia cited NATO's "inclusive bombing of Tripoli" as grounds for objecting to the new UK-French-Portuguese motion condemning the Assad regime for its violent crackdown on protest, and any other UN Security Council action against Syria. After a more than $4 billion outlay, debkafile reports NATO's campaign against Muammar Qaddafi is running short of funds and suffering war "fatigue." The US, Britain and France consider dipping into the estimated $45 million of frozen Qaddafi funds in their banks. Qaddafi' commands about $1 trillion in cash.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 26, 2011
Combat in Libya is winding down. debkafile's exclusive sources report that Muammar Qaddafi and the rebel commanders are close to a series of accords for ending the war after two weeks of secret talks. Fighting on the ground has receded to small pockets where a few rebel chiefs are still holding out, while the primary battlefields of Misrata, Brega and Ajdabia have fallen silent.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis May 10, 2011
NATO's lingering two-month campaign in Libya is whittling down Muammar Qaddafi's strength but also sapping its own. debkafile's military sources report that Washington and NATO HQ suspect Qaddafi is now getting early warning of incoming coalition strikes from advanced electronic devices newly installed at a foreign embassy in Tripoli. The fact remains that without substantial US military input NATO's European members cannot break Qaddafi's strength. Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are taking note.
DEBKAfile Special Report May 1, 2011
The Libyan war took a dangerous turn with the killing of Saif al-Arab, 29, the youngest of Muammar Qaddafi's six sons, and three of his grandsons by a NATO air strike in Tripoli Saturday night, April 30. Muammar and his wife were present in the targeted villa but unhurt. NATO has not confirmed this report. debkafile: The Libyan ruler's resolve to fight the Western alliance will be strengthened. He is expected to start seeking out NATO targets inside and outside Libya.
DEBKAfile Special Report April 25, 2011
Hours after US and British figures called for "the head of the snake" in Libya to be cut off, NATO warplanes early Monday, April 25, pulverized a building in Muammar Qaddafi's Bab al-Aziziyah working compound in Tripoli, wrecking his offices and conference room. A government official called the strike an attempt on the Libyan ruler's life which coalition spokesmen did not deny. Qaddafi's whereabouts were not disclosed.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 22, 2011
Arms and military personnel are streaming to Libya. Thursday, April 21, President Barack Obama authorized two armed Predator drones for breaking the siege of Misratah, while British, French and Italian military officers headed for rebel headquarters in Benghazi, part of a military aid package from the US, Britain, France, Italy and Qatar. Muammar Qaddafi is restocking his arsenals with Chinese, Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian and Serbian hardware, along with combat personnel from East Europe and the former Yugoslavia.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 16, 2011
Two months after Muammar Qaddafi's vow "to purge Libya, inch by inch, house by house, zenga by zenga," he is closer to making good on his boast than even he imagined. With the US out of the military picture, NATO allies are short of warplanes for stopping Qaddafi's progress and are divided over their mission goal. At odds on how to go forward, they are dropping by the wayside as Qaddafi gains zenga after zenga in Misratah and Ajdabiyeh.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 7, 2011
US President Barack Obama launched a number of diplomatic and military steps Monday March 7 pointing toward preparation for US and NATO intervention in the Libyan civil war - notwithstanding objections from the Pentagon and US military chiefs. debkafile's sources report the administration was behind the UAE appeal Monday for UN Security Council protection for the Libyan people. The UAE was clearly seeking a mandate for military action, but Moscow quickly declared its opposition to any foreign intervention in Libya.