On the fifth anniversary of Israel's second Lebanon war this week, as former IDF generals and military experts hailed its outcome as the winning deterrent keeping the Shiite terrorist Hizballah at bay every since, Hassan Nasrallah quietly completed the organization's takeover of Lebanon's security and intelligence agencies and took delivery of advanced ballistic missiles from Syria. Hizballah is therefore going from strength to strength in Lebanon – contrary to the view current in top Israeli circles.

By stepping into Bahrain, the Saudis took the calculated risk of accelerating Sunni-Shiite discord across the region. Because of the challenge to its religious supremacy from Iraq, Tehran is re-thinking the wisdom of its decision to hijack the Arab uprisings.

Hizballah's campaign against the Hariri Tribunal and the Lebanese government may have gone too far. Syria's Bashar Assad has withdrawn his support in favor of bolstering Saad Hariri and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is planning to murder him to save is own skin from the tribunal.

Lebanon swerved closer to a factional conflagration Thursday night, Jan. 20, when Saad Hariri, whose coalition Hizballah toppled eight days ago, announced he would form a new government and so defy the efforts to oust him.  Hassan Nasrallah's supporters warned he was leading Lebanon to disaster. Earlier, Lebanese army units stepped up security for Hariri and government institutions and took up positions at Beirut's intersections ready to ward off any Hizballah takeover attempt.

Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah, in his first speech on the Lebanese crisis, said Sunday night, Jan. 16 that the "opposition-resistance" camp would form a government without Said Hariri, the prime minister he toppled last week, and "exercise its own national convictions." debkafile:  Hizballah's determination to finish the pro-Western Hariri for good is backed by the Syrian president as a means of derailing Obama administration goals for Lebanon.

In his speech Thursday, Dec. 16, Hassan Nasrallah sounded like his usual pugnacious self, damning America and forecasting an Israeli defeat in the next war. He even staged a dramatic backdrop of  "Israeli spy equipment" dismantled on two Lebanese peaks that very day. But, according to debkafile's sources, it was all a show to conceal his surrender to the UN tribunal investigating the 2005 murder and his instruction to high-ranking Hizballah suspects to turn themselves in.

The speech Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon's Hizballah, delivered Thursday night Oct. 29 was taken in all sections of Lebanese society as a virtual declaration of war - a conflict which they fear will be even fiercer and crueler than the 1975 civil war.  It is widely believed, according to debkafile's Middle East sources, that the power-sharing order the diverse communities achieved after that conflict will be swept away and replaced with a pro-Iranian, pro-Syrian puppet regime.