DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 2, 2006
The artificial efforts to keep the lid on violence while US president George W. Bush was in the region Wednesday and Thursday, Nov. 29-30 for talks on Iraq, were abandoned as soon as he boarded Air Force One for Washington. This was predicted by Jordan's King Abdullah when he warned that three civil wars were on the point of erupting in the Middle East.
Saturday, Dec. 2, Mahmoud Abbas updated the PLO Executive Committee in Ramallah on the collapse of his unity talks with Hamas, after advising US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice of the stalemate in Jericho Friday, Dec. 1.
Fatah spokesman Azzam al Ahmad came out and called the Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya to step down or else Abu Mazen would have to call an early election to solve the constitutional crisis. Ismail Radwan of Hamas shot back that this kind of talk inflamed relations and would treated as a coup threat.
Fatah was blowing in the wind. It lacks both the popular and parliamentary numbers to bring about an early poll.
The threat is out in the open: If Abu Mazen tries to dismiss the Hamas cabinet and call a new election, Hamas will resume its Qassam missile war against Israel, calibrating the level of fire to the state of affairs on the internal Palestinian front.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2006
Israel's five-day anti-missile campaign was curtailed Sunday, Nov. 26 by a ceasefire announced by the Palestinians. But it was long enough to provide Israeli forces with the foretaste of a Palestinian fighting force far different from the bands of terrorists the IDF has faced for the past six years in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
The fingerprints were clearly apparent of the 120 Syrian and Hizballah officers whose arrival in the Gaza in the weeks after the Lebanon War was revealed by debkafile. They came in quite openly through Cairo international airport without demur from Egyptian officials.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 22, 2006
debkafile's military sources disclose that Israel's security cabinet decided Wednesday, Nov. 22, that there is no option but to launch a major offensive against Hamas and its terrorist allies in the Gaza Strip - both to pre-empt their war build-up and reduce Qassam missile attacks, which climbed to 80 in the last 10 days. The date remains to be set.
The prime minister was finally convinced that the time for foot-dragging was over by intelligence data which showed Hamas hectically engaged in constructing state of the art fortifications for withstanding deep incursions into the Gaza Strip. They are assisted by dozens of military advisers pouring in from Syria and Lebanon.
As Palestinian missile attacks on the Israeli population proliferate, Sderot's distress becomes intolerable and the popular clamor rises to curb the menace, the IDF has switched its counter-missile tactics in the Gaza Strip. Instead of the air force, special ground forces backed by Shin Bet units are spearheading strikes which target top Hamas missile commanders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 16, 2006
debkafile's military experts dispute the common Israeli government assertion that there is no way to stop the Qassam offensive against Sderot. They offer two solutions which do not entail reoccupying the entire Gaza Strip or Beit Hanoun, or using artillery to bombard civilian locations.
One is the deployment of small commando units across the Egyptian border in northern Sinai. These units would pre-empt the smuggling by attacking the convoys of weapons and funds and blowing them up before they reach the Gaza border.
The same tactic is applicable to the Gaza Strip.
Swarms of Israeli commando units should fill the areas from which the Qassam missiles are fired, including orchards. Ambushes at every corner will deter the missile crews and make them afraid of being liquidated on their way to launchings. This tactic was tried only once before in a location outside Beit Lahiya, next door to Beit Hanoun. It caused heavy casualties among the Palestinian gunmen and the Qassam teams gave this location a wide berth for some time.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 7, 2006
"Operation Autumn Clouds" wound down early Tuesday, 7 Nov. after Israeli forces occupied the northern Gazan town of Beit Hanoun for six days, for the loss of an Israeli soldier, 1st Sgt Kiril Golanshin, 21, from Shekef. Most of the 58 Palestinians killed were armed Hamas adherents.
In Beit Hanoun, the Givaty Armored Infantry Brigade and smaller units demonstrated a new combat method which Israeli special forces first tested in the Aug.1 raid on Baalbek during the Lebanon War, adding improvements for the Gaza operation. Police anti-terror squads joined the operation for practice.
The tactic consists essentially of select groups of elite fighters swooping at speed on defined populated urban areas for pinpointed missions. This method is part of the tradition of the select IDF commando units called Sayarot. In Gaza, Givaty applied the same tactic to larger units of up to brigade and battalion strength.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 13, 2006
The military pacts Palestinian Hamas interior minister Said Siyam signed with his Iranian counterpart Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi in Tehran on Oct. 12 are designed to transform Hamas' military wing, the Ezz e-Din al Qassam, into a crack operational arm of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and Gaza into a second Lebanon.
debkafile's Iranian sources report Tehran has committed to training Hamas' rapid deployment force of 6,500 men in Hizballah combat tactics, with the accent on missiles, especially the anti-tank variety which were used with devastating effect against Israeli tanks in the Lebanon War.
The Hamas military delegation flew from Cairo to Dubai and on to Tehran. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman, were apprised of the Hamas leaders' trip and the military accords they were to sign, but did nothing to detain the travelers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2006
Mahmoud Abbas, who carries the formal title of President of the Palestinian Authority, is pushing hard for a government coalition between his own Fatah and the ruling Hamas. The incentive for Hamas' prime minister Ismail Haniyeh is the prospect of an escape from the international boycott and aid embargo dogging his government. But extremist supreme leader Khaled Meshaal who is based in Damascus is unlikely to let him run very far.
Abu Mazen knows the unity government is a non-starter because it would carry with it only a small group of Hamas leaders and leave the Islamist movement fatally split. The military arm ruled by Meshaal, Damascus and Tehran would soon eliminate Haniyeh as a renegade.
But when he looks around him, Abbas sees no reason why he too should not try and hawk non-existent merchandize like everyone else.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 30, 2006
Israel's intelligence chiefs have formed a new lobby to put their warnings in the public domain when they see the Olmert government failing to properly address grave security threats to the country.
The first to speak out was the Shin Bet director, Yuval Diskin.
He represented the heads of AMAN-military intelligence and the Mosad when he revealed to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday, Aug. 29, that Palestinian terrorists, notably Hamas, were employing Hizballah's Lebanon tactics and building a Katyusha deployment, bunker network and anti-tank missile arsenal in the Gaza Strip. The northern West Bank, he said, had been taken over by Hizballah agents and radical Jihad Islami terrorists since its evacuation by Israel at the same time as the Gaza Strip last summer.
debkafile's intelligence sources reveal: Israel's security chiefs have learned of a decision by Hizballah to keep its head down in S. Lebanon for the time being, while secretly opening two new anti-Israel fronts in the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank. This transposition of Hizballah's war against Israel to the Palestinian arena has begun to materialize.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2006
On the face of it, conversion to Islam would appear to provide a painless escape device for any hostage who happens to fall into fundamentalist terrorist hands. After all, once free, the hostage can always revert to his real faith or non-faith. It is hard to blame the two Fox News journalists, the American Steve Centanni, 60, and the New Zealander, Olaf Wiig, 36, for taking that path on to buy their way out of an uncertain fate at the hands of Palestinian terrorists - especially as they later reported they were forced to make the gesture at gunpoint.
And, indeed the two journalists were released from 13 days of captivity in Gaza three hours after announcing their conversion on a new videotape released by the kidnappers in Gaza.
Various Palestinian middlemen were used by British agents at the request of the US to bring the Fox journalists home. They worked out a convoluted deal which entailed their public conversion to Islam, an anti-American harangue on air and a six-figure cash ransom paid under the table to their kidnapper, the Palestinian warlord Zakaria Dughmush.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 11, 2006
Maj.-Gen (Ret) Giora Eiland traced the breakdown which allowed a Hamas-led squad overrun an Israeli army post on the Israeli side of the southern Gaza border, kill two soldiers and snatch Corporal Gideon Shalit on June 25, to an "operational" breakdown. Most damningly, Eilat affirmed that the corporal's abduction could have been aborted.
At the same time, General Eiland omitted to asked the three searching questions that might have laid bare the root-causes of the fiasco at Kerem Shalom:
1. Was this a one-time slip-up or a part of a long-running string of lapses?
2. Was it the natural, preordained consequence of the operational directives coming down from the prime minister, the defense minister via IDF chiefs?
3. The Eiland probe should have examined the strategic concepts guiding Israel's top commanders before and after the fall of the Kerem Shalom post.
The scales have fallen from many Israeli eyes in the wake of the Gilead Shalit disaster. People have begun asking hard questions, such as how did Hamas come to take over Palestinian government in the first place. And why is Hamas being permitted to terrorize southern Israeli with Qassam missiles after the Gaza Strip was handed over lock, stock and barrel to full Palestinian control.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 8, 2006
Operation Oaks of Bashan has done nothing to help bring Corporal Gilead Shalit home, 12 days after a Hamas-led assault team attacked an Israeli army post, killed two of his comrades and kidnapped him. The Israeli incursion has also not made enough headway in purging Palestinian gunmen or locating the tunnels favored by Palestinian terrorists for surprise attacks and smuggling.
However, Israeli forces have not limited their offensive to incursions above ground. Special forces are operating deep behind enemy lines.Tuesday, July 4, for instance, an Israeli ambush south of Gaza City targeted and killed Thayasar Roei, liaison officer between Palestinian national security forces and Hamas.
Thursday and Friday, several second-level Hamas operatives were taken from their homes. Hamas may not take its punishment without striking back, possibly by mounting more surprise attacks like the one that captured Gilead Shalit and took Israel unawares on June 25. Israel may also have surprises up its sleeve.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 4, 2006
Israeli and Hamas leaders have been hurling shrill threats right and left since three Palestinian terrorist groups slapped down a deadline to meet their demands over the Israeli hostage, Corp. Gilead Shalit. But the loudest effect is generated by the Bush administration's silence.
In Moscow, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni talked to Russian president Vladimir Putin, then warned that the Gilead Shalit hostage affair could lead to a regional war escalation. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, after his mediation bid collapsed, hurried over to Saudi Arabia for an appeal to King Abdullah to use his influence with Assad - not Hamas - to defuse the situation before it hurtles out of control.
But debkafile's Middle East and military sources calculate that none of the recipients of these appeals is much scared about the prospect of a general Middle East flare-up.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2006
The ball landed squarely in the Israeli court Saturday night, July 1, after Cairo admitted its bid to negotiate an end to the Gideon Shalit hostage crisis had ended in fiasco six days after his capture. The IDF, whose armored forces are standing 3 km inside the southern Gaza Strip since Wednesday, June 28, and camped on the fringes of its northern sector, are awaiting their next orders. It is up to prime minister Ehud Olmert to tell the troops how to complete their incursion of the territory and approach their confrontation with Hamas.
He is holding emergency conferences with security and military chiefs Saturday night on whether to approach the inevitable clash at once, or in stages; incrementally, or by a blitz operation entailing the reoccupation of all or most of the Gaza Strip.
Casualties on both sides are unavoidable.
debkafile's sources disclose that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his aides derailed their own mediation effort out of hubris, while Mahmoud Abbas is picking up the pieces in the hope of maneuvering Israel into doing his dirty work and toppling the Hamas regime.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 27, 2006
Steely lines of hundreds of tanks, thousands of armored infantry and commandos menaced the Gaza Strip as of Monday night, June 26, from three jumping-off points: the Nahal Oz base opposite Gaza City, Kissufim opposite Deir al Balah and Khan Younes in the south and Sufa opposite Rafah. Made up of the Golani and Givaty armored brigades and special operations units including the elite Sayeret Matkal, they presented a picture of armored might not seen for many years on the world's television screens.
debkafile's military sources predict that an extensive military operation may be hours off rather than days. With every hour that goes by without the Israeli soldier's recovery, the heat mounts for military action. In the 48 hours since he was kidnapped, it looks increasingly as though his Palestinian captors do not intend letting him go in a hurry and are digging in to extort as much military, diplomatic and propaganda capital from the abduction as they can get.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 23, 2006
Israeli Maj.-Gen (Res.) Yitzhak Ben-Israel, a member of the prime minister's Kadima party, said in a state radio interview on June 22: "This is not the finest hour of Israel's national security leadership." Pressed to elaborate on who in particular he meant, the general mentioned prime minister Ehud Olmert and defense minister Amir Peretz.
debkafile's military sources reveal here the five different constraints they have clamped down on counter-terror operations.
This ban appears to be as counter-productive as the others. Air force warplanes are not allowed to carry out raids over the Gaza Strip, only drones and helicopters. Every attempt was made to explain that high-altitude warplanes are armed with advanced electronic instruments and radar, which are tailored for high-precision bombardments - unlike the low-flying hit-or-miss drones and helicopters, which are far more prone to strike civilians by mistake.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2006
After a week's silence, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert had only this to say Tuesday night, June 20, about the plunging security crisis provoked by the unending Palestinian missile offensive against Israeli civilians: "There is no way in the near future of solving the missile problem," he said, "And we (Israel) will reach all those committing terrorism against us."
After two weeks of relentless Palestinian missile and gunfire and attempts to kidnap Israelis, and Israeli targeted attacks on terrorist operatives, the Olmert government has no clue how to handle the crisis. Still worse, the IDF high command seems to be losing its grip on events.
Israeli's security crisis under an inexperienced government is compounded by the breakdown of the chief of staff, Lt-Gen. Dan Halutz's strategic doctrine for fighting terror. In some respects, this failure may be likened to the collapse of Israel's Bar-Lev line of Suez fortifications in the face of Egypt's shock offensive in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 12, 2006
As it turned out, the first leg of the Israeli prime minister's tour was mostly a waste of time; British prime minister Tony Blair declined to hear of his realignment plan for the West Bank, even though Olmert pledged 90% of the West Bank for a Palestinian state and a major effort to achieve a negotiated agreement with the Palestinians. He also omitted to endorse Olmert's ringing declaration that Israel will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran.
After he returns home, Ehud Olmert will no longer be able to escape a decision to cut the Gordian knot and choose, after more than five years of neglect by one government after another, between saving Sderot by adopting the army's recommendations - at the risk of casualties on both sides - or losing Sderot to a triumphant Hamas. The latter decision would bring about the most significant Israeli withdrawal from sovereign territory since 1948 and give the terrorists who rule the Palestinians a free bite of the Israeli Negev.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 14, 2006
Prof. Abdel al Sather Qassam, university lecturer at Nablus a-Najah University, is a little-known figure to the outside world. However Israeli intelligence rates him as Hamas' senior strategic ideologue and a highly influential voice in the Palestinian terror movement at large.
Last week, he gave a group of leaders of the umbrella terrorist coalition in Gaza, the Popular Resistance Committees leader, by video broadcast from Nablus, a stern talking-to with some important new guidelines. One member of his audience was Jemal Semhadana, the PRC chief who was recently appointed commander of the new Hamas security service. Israeli intelligence monitors routinely listened in to the broadcast. debkafile runs the gist of the Hamas professor's briefing - obtained from our intelligence sources - because of his unusual frankness and the relevance of his guidelines for the immediate future.
Hamas Hires Gang Chief to Muscle in on Palestinian Security Forces and Strip Abu Mazen of Real Power
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 23, 2006
Reconciliation gestures notwithstanding, Hamas is methodically peeling off the layers of authority from Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).
The increasing violence and virulence between the two camps are deceptive; on his home ground, Abu Mazen has been reduced to a nonentity. The standoff between him and Hamas is illusory.
Four developments underline the changes Hamas has already wrought in the structure and direction of Palestinian government since its takeover in February.
The ministers whom prime minister Ismail Haniya appointed in February have not taken up their jobs, except for interior minister Siyam. He, too, rather than tackling the mundane tasks of bringing law and order to the chaotic, crime-ridden streets, is busy consolidating Hamas in the key positions grabbed from the PA's Fatah-dominated security, intelligence and civil services, which Abbas claims to be under his authority.
This is where the notorious crime and terrorist chief Jamal Semhadana comes in.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 18, 2006
For Israelis, Tuesday, the eve of the last day of Passover, was a day of funerals, mourning for 9 Israelis, foreign workers and tourists who lost their lives when a Palestinian suicide bomber blew up a busy shopping corner in Tel Aviv on Monday, April 17.
It was the most murderous outrage committed by Palestinian terrorists in 20 months, the first since the Hamas terrorist group took office and a test of the mettle of the incoming prime minister Ehud Olmert.
However, Olmert, foreign minister Tzipi Livni and defense minister Shaul Mofaz decided to abstain from military action, rejecting the advice of military leaders to declare the Hamas government an enemy authority. The generals and security chiefs explained that without this declaration, their hands were tied in fighting off terror, because of the developing situation whereby the terrorist entity ruling the Palestinian Authority was in the process of taking over its official security organs.