DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 20, 2004
The missile in the photo with this article is the Luna-2 short-range ground-to-ground missile, known to NATO from Soviet times as FROG-7, which Iran has developed as its Zelzal-2/Mushak-200. In the hands of Iran's Lebanon-based Revolutionary Guards, it has extended the Iranian-Hizballah's missile range due south to Israel's coastal cities of Haifa, Hadera and Netanya. The missile, its launchers and infrastructure are well-hidden in special storehouses in the port town of Sidon in the care of Revolutionary Guards specialist teams. A Lebanese urban center was chosen for their hiding places to reduce the weapon's vulnerability to an Israeli air strike. With Tehran already issuing operational orders to the Palestinian Hamas fundamentalist terrorist group, it is only a question of time before these missiles are transferred to the Gaza Strip, so bringing southern Israel, Tel Aviv and the cities in between, such as Rehovot, Rishon Lezion and Ashdod, within striking range.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 8, 2004
Call him M. He is an Israeli army lieutenant who serving in the special anti-sniper unit posted in the southern Gaza Strip. His job is to spot and eliminate Palestinian snipers. Until last March, his training was adapted to the Palestinian sniper. But then, one morning, there was a change. Through his field glasses, he saw two men with a different look from the Palestinian gunmen he was used to. Both were neatly turned out in well-pressed civilian trousers and new western camouflage jackets. One had long fair hair, a light complexion and moved like a European. Around 90 minutes later, he stood up to move to another part of the roof. His right shoulder had been visible over the parapet no more than three or four seconds when he was knocked over by a gunshot before he had time to fire.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 10, 2004
Since Thursday, August 5 and up until early August 10, not a single Qassam missile landed from the Gaza Strip on the southern Israel towns of Sderot or neighboring West Negev kibbutzim. Their daily nightmare since last year was more or less in abeyance for six days. Suddenly too the stream of anti-Israel invective and threats dried up in the mouths of the ruling Fatah and its al Aqsa Martyrs (Suicides) Brigades, the Hamas, and the other Palestinian purveyors of mass terror. Furthermore, while Israelis argued the rights and wrongs of allowing Palestinian police officers (many of whom moonlight as terrorists) to patrol West Bank streets bearing arms, those officers began were already out fully armed on the streets of Jenin and Qalqilya without waiting for Israeli permission. debkafile's Palestinian sources hold up two keys to these mysteries, both held by Yasser Arafat:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 31, 2004
Russian-made S-5 unguided aircraft rockets were part of the Egyptian haul earlier this month of a large shipment of missiles, stopped before they were smuggled to the Palestinians through the Rafah tunnels. The S-5 would be an important boost to the Palestinian arsenal; some may still defeat attempts to stop them and reach the Gaza Strip - either through the smuggling tunnels or by other routes, especially after Israeli troops are pulled back. debkafile reveals the Palestinians are planning to convert these Soviet-era 20-25-km range rockets into surface missiles capable of hitting southern Israel's key cities of Beersheba, Ashkelon and Ashdod. The rockets were originally Soviet-designed for use by the Mi-24 helicopter, the Russian equivalent of the American AH-64 Apache, in Afghanistan. In Palestinian hands, they would upgrade the missile threat beyond that posed by the hit-or-miss home-made Qassams, even the improved Nasser version.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 28, 2004
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The fateful June 30 judgment by Israeli High Court Justices Aharon Barak, Mishael Heshin and Eliahu Matza, that saving Palestinians from hardship must take precedence over saving Israeli lives, foredoomed to failure the security barrier's efficacy in separating Palestinian terrorists from their chosen targets in the most heavily populated parts of Israel. The alacrity of prime minister Ariel Sharon and defense minister Shaul Mofaz to comply with this ruling - as though it were a judgment from heaven - has stamped Israel's four-and-a-half year conflict against Palestinian terrorism with the mark of its government's weakness.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 27, 2004
Sunday, July 26, as pro-reform Palestinian legislator Nabil Amer was nursing the wounds inflicted by Yasser Arafat's gunmen, a phone call came through to his room at the Amman university hospital from none other than Arafat. The Palestinian leader inquired about his health and offered to pay his hospital expenses. Amer did not bother to reply. Sitting beside his bed was a fellow Hebronite, Rafiq Natshe, once Palestinian legislative council speaker, for many years PLO ambassador in Saudi Arabia and a highly respected figure in the Palestinian community. Known also as Abu Shakar, he is the head of the leading Natshe family of Hebron. Since Amer belongs to the largest Mt Hebron clan, which is centered on the large village of Dura, Natshe's frequent hospital visits are ominously charged: the two great clans of the southern West Bank have decided to make common cause against Arafat.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 17, 2004
Yasser Arafat waited until the Gaza Strip was relegated to the status of a write-off to be dumped by Israel, with the Egyptians and Britain maintaining an interim security presence until the Palestinians were deemed fit to rule a reformed, terror-free administration. Arafat himself was seen as a spent force. However, 48 hours before Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon launched coalition negotiations for a government lineup committed to evacuating the Gaza Strip, Arafat pounced. One, two, three abductions were staged in the Gaza Strip in a 10-hour period on Friday, July 16. By nightfall Saturday, Arafat was in absolute command of the territory.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 11, 2004
The Palestinians timed one of their last effective terror attacks for the day before the international court at The Hague began hearing the Palestinian petition against Israel's defense barrier. Sunday, July 11, two days after the court ruled the barrier illegal, the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the suicide arm of Yasser Arafat's Fatah, closed the circle by detonating a medium-sized bomb in rush hour traffic at a Tel Aviv bus stop, killing a 20-year old Israeli girl soldier and injuring another 40 commuters, 4 of them seriously. debkafile's political analysts believe that the negative pro-Palestinian opinion handed down against Israel's security fence was not inescapable or pre-ordained. The Israeli government's stubborn decision not to present its case tilted it in the Palestinians' favor. Instead of protesting fruitlessly outside the courthouse, the victims of Palestinian terror, not all of them Israeli citizens, should have been inside depicting the Palestinian authority's campaign of suicidal terror and genocidal motives as the rationale for the non-violent barrier.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 30, 2004
Three Israeli high court judges led by chief justice Aharon Barak handed down a landmark ruling Wednesday, June 30, which said explicitly that the welfare of ten West Bank Palestinian villages is more important than the security of Israeli citizens. The court accepted a Palestinian petition claiming the defense barrier separated villagers from their land, schools and jobs, and ordered the Israeli defense ministry to reroute 30 kilometers out of 40 kilometers of the fence designed to keep Palestinian suicide killers out of the capital. This stretch runs northwest of Jerusalem from Givat Zeev to Nataf. The IDF proposal to cut four gates in the fence was not accepted. The court affirmed in principle that the barrier's purpose was to save lives rather than a political land grab and was not therefore illegal. No demands were made of the Palestinians with regard to renouncing support for terror. The director of the defense ministry barrier project said the court had handed down "a very bad judgment for Israel and made a mockery of the victims of the Palestinian Authority and terrorist organizations."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 15, 2004
Pushing hard against his failing health, isolation and weakened position in the Palestinian and Arab world, Yasser Arafat has gone into hyperactive mode to dodge international heat for reforms in the Palestinian security forces, fend off Egyptian dictates and, most importantly, to trip up Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan. debkafile's intelligence and Palestinian sources reveal that a top-level Palestinian delegation has been in Damascus since the end of last week waiting to be received by Syrian president Bashar Assad. Their mission is to heal the twenty-year breach with Arafat that Bashar inherited from his father Hafez and so pave the way for establishing a Syrian-Palestinian front - with possible Iranian backing - to defeat Sharon's plan and keep the Egyptians out of Palestinian affairs.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 24, 2004
Most of the Palestinian armed terrorists based in Gaza Strip's Rafah fled north to Khan Younes during the May 22-23 weekend pause in the large-scale Israeli operation launched seven days ago. Some even dropped their weapons in their haste to get out. The IDF buildup of infantry and armor in and around Rafah Sunday night, May 23, was effected to take advantage of the unusual scarcity of armed terrorists in the town and make sure it stayed that way. The plan now is to keep Rafah encircled and its streets clear of armed men, much like the West Bank towns of Ramallah, Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus. There, large Israeli contingents are deployed on the perimeters, poised to stage incursions in response to intelligence alerts of terrorist operations in the making. This formula has cut down terrorist attacks against Israeli targets in recent months. The difference in respect to Rafah will be that the surrounding IDF troops will be on the alert for intelligence on the location of tunnels. Raids will then be staged to blow them up.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 23, 2004
Israel's Rafah Operation, now in its sixth day, differs substantially from the 2002 Jenin battle in its strategic and existential scope. This time it is not just about the Palestinians and Israel, or even short-term security. The IDF is fighting in Rafah against the Palestinian appetite for expansion, the drive to extend its claim on the Gaza Strip to include the Israel-Egyptian border zone abutting on Sinai.
This internationally recognized frontier was embodied in the peace treaty the two countries achieved after Egypt renounced war. Demolishing everything this accord stands for is the underlying objective of the Palestinian smuggling tunnel system and their constant harassment of Israeli border patrols securing the Philadelphi border route. Documents Israeli troops found at the outset of Operation Rainbow expose Palestinian determination to push Israel out of its positions on this international border and sabotage a key clause in the first peace accord Israel signed with an Arab nation.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 19, 2004
Israel's large-scale Israel military operation in Rafah, which was launched Tuesday, May 18, in the terrorist hotbed of Tel Sultan, did not start out on the Philadelphi Route marking the Egyptian-Gazan-Israeli international border. It began attacking the lawless core of the entire Rafah frontier region where illegal trafficking has run out of control. The tunnels running transversely under the border from Egyptian Sinai into Rafah have sprouted an extensive multimillion crime racket capable of placing quantities of illegal high-powered weapons in the hands of Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip and West Bank and reaching destinations across the Middle East. The tunnels also carry from Sinai, where Egyptian border control is lax, the usual contraband including drugs and prostitutes. In the absence of legitimate jobs, Rafah inhabitants, including those who fled their homes ahead of the Israeli advance, make their living from the tunnels and are paid well for the use of their homes as exits or as havens for terrorists.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 16, 2004
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The gap between Israeli politics and security was never so strikingly articulated as Saturday night, May 15, after Israel lost 13 servicemen in action between Tuesday and Friday. While an estimated 100,000-150,000 (depending on who is asked) rallied in Tel Aviv in favor of quitting the Gaza Strip, a full IDF armored division supplemented by artillery battalions were making last preparations to go into the Gaza Strip to clean out the Palestinian terrorist strongholds daily harassing the Israeli-controlled Gaza-Israel-Egyptian border sector. This border splits Rafah's urban area down the middle between Palestinian and Egyptian controlled areas. The border itself is controlled by Israel under its peace agreement with Egypt and its 1993 Oslo Accords with the Palestinians. While the left-wing organizers of the demonstration counted noses to prove they outnumbered the Likud members who rejected the prime minister's disengagement proposals, the prime minister Ariel Sharon himself was closeted with defense minister Shaul Mofaz and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon. They were tying up the last ends of the coming military drive into Palestinian Rafah, its refugee camps and the fringes of the Philadelphi route. Rather than pulling up stakes in the Gaza Strip, Israel forces were thus preparing to take back 18 percent of the territory that was turned over to Palestinian control in 1994.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 13, 2004
Eleven Israeli servicemen died in action in two fatal incidents in the Gaza Strip in 36 hours: six were killed by a roadside bomb on mission to destroy Palestinian weapons workshops in Gaza's teeming Zeitoun neighborhood, five troops, a highly trained team, were killed while searching for Palestinian arms-smuggling tunnels along the Philadelphi strip in Rafah. The combination of two deadly attacks and painful loss of life force Israelis to look straight at a grim reality they has been ducking for almost four years. Quite simply, the country is at war. Suddenly, its television screens are filled with rumbling convoys of tank carriers and buses packed with soldiers in full combat gear heading for the front line.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 11, 2004
Six Israeli members of the Givati infantry brigade's engineers platoon were killed Tuesday, May 11 when their armored personnel carrier was blown up by a roadside bomb at the end of an operation to demolish rockets and arms manufacturing facilities in Gaza City's Zeitoun district. The bomb detonated the 130 kilos of explosives in the Israeli vehicle. Masked Islamic Jihad and Hamas gunmen snatched the fragmented bodies, paraded them through Gaza streets, firing off victory salvos, and then announced they were open for negotiation for their return. Israeli troop reinforcements thereupon streamed into the city and began house to house searches for their comrades' remains, announcing they would stay until they were recovered. The Red Cross was instructed to demand the bodies of the fallen men. The atrocity Israel and its servicemen confronted that day in Gaza City cannot be divorced from previous deadly events:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 18, 2004
It is no coincidence that the March 17 attack on Israel's Mediterranean port at Ashdod liked the foiled Amman mega-strike was orchestrated from Damascus. debkafile's terror experts have become convinced that the mega-strike hanging over Israel's head may indeed emanate from the Syrian capital rather than the Gaza Strip. A second common factor is noted by our analysts between the foiled al Qaeda-Hizballah attack in Amman and the most recent terrorist attacks against Israel: a dangerous gap in anti-terror defenses, which has been heavily overshadowed by the precision of the strikes that wiped out two Hamas leaders. What it means is that the Hizballah, al Qaeda and the Palestinians have learned how to smuggle explosives and war materials undetected through well-secured crossing points and borders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 27, 2004
No sooner had the tens of thousands of mourners dispersed after the ceremonies and demonstrations of strength marking the death of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin last Tuesday, March 22, in an Israeli missile attack, when a thousand Hamas top and middle-ranking activists dived underground. This is reported by debkafile's counter-terror sources. Since then, known Hamas operatives have maintained perfect telephone silence, their relatives are in the dark about their whereabouts and contacts are maintained only through trusted couriers. This situation presented the Hamas command center in Damascus with the problem of communicating urgent instructions to the men on the ground in the Gaza Strip - urgent for two reasons:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 23, 2004
Just 30 hours after the Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was killed by an Israeli missile in Gaza City, the radical Abdel Aziz Rantisi, 57-year old pediatrician, declared himself successor. Several members of the Hamas leadership were quick to put in that the appointment was provisional and necessary to close the gap left by the departed leader. Rantisi's claim that he was the deputy head of the Shura Council and therefore automatically next in line for the leadership is deceptive, especially considering that Yassin never accepted his pretensions to the succession. In any case, Yassin was never head of the Shura Council. Indeed his leadership of the Hamas movement was never formalized under any public title at all, contrary to the impression Rantisi is trying to convey. Finally, the Shura Council is not the movement's supreme authority; nor does it select Hamas leaders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 23, 2004
The same mistakes that set the scene for the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin are now tying the hands of his organization for carrying out its sworn revenge mega-strike against his Israeli killers. The funeral procession that accompanied his coffin to burial on Monday March 22 was not quite as impressive or frenetic as Hamas leaders would have liked. The Arab world saw more impressive turnouts after the deaths of Egypt's Gemal Abdul Nasser in 1972, Syria's Hafez Assad in 2000 and King Hussein of Jordan a year later. Aziz Rantissi, senior Hamas spokesman and candidate to succeed the dead sheikh, would have preferred to delay the funeral until later in the week to gain time for staging a full-dress Palestinian national event and preparing some spin on the succession struggle. However, Ismail Hanya rushed the preparations forward and the result was a plain plywood box carried aloft without much ceremony and a foreshortened funeral, over before the masses could rally on the streets of the Arab world to voice their anger at the assassination.