The Gulf rulers including Saudi Arabia refuse to spend a petrocent for bailing Egypt out of its economic morass since discovering that the ruling Muslim Brotherhood’s first priority is gaining 100 percent control of parliament and only then grappling with the economy.

Russian warships set out Tuesday, Dec. 18, for two Middle East flashpoint destinations: Two assault ships, a tanker and an escort vessel sailed from the Baltic to Syria – possibly to evacuate Russian citizens; and Russia’s largest anti-submarine vessel headed for the Gulfs of Aden and Oman close to the Persian Gulf and Iran. debkafile: Russia’s military steps seem to be actuated by anticipation of the international crisis arising from the introduction of chemical warfare to the Syrian war – either by Assad’s army or insurgents.

Special operations units of the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Tuesday, May 14, began a two-day practice of offensive tactics, for the first time dropping large-scale forces from the air deep behind enemy lines. The many war games Iran has conducted until now focused on defenses of strategic and nuclear locations and repelling invaders. It began on the same day as the US-led multination nation special forces exercise in Jordan and was staged deliberately near the Afghan border.

A new US battle strategy against Iran (ASB) hinges on tightly coordinated air, land, sea, undersea, space and cyberspace capabilities for defeating closure of the (Hormuz) strait, cyber attack, mines, cruise and ballistic missiles. US and Israeli Air Forces, Navies and their special forces are operating on the ABS concept after an Israeli drill which ended in its navy setting up a dense defensive line against enemy sea assault by unconventional weapons. Monday, a large US amphibious marine vessel anchored in Jedda.

Iran’s latest proposals contain a couple of concessions but are essentially a bargaining vehicle for using its clandestine dialogue with the US for acceptance of its nuclear program in one form another but equally important recognition as America’s respected regional partner.

Continuing our exclusive blow-by-blow reporting since March on the backdoor nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, the latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday revealed that Iran has put together a new package of proposals ahead of the next formal session between Iran and the Six Powers in Baghdad on May 23. They affect its nuclear program and aim to test Barack Obama’s willingness for a strategic partnership in the Persian Gulf region.
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The US military buildup around Iran goes far beyond a cautionary demonstration for Iran to give up its nuclear weapon program. As well as the second lot of Raptors for the Gulf, military might is pouring into the two strategic islands of Masirah and Socotra.

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, debkafile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

A law annexing the UAR islands of Abu Musa and the two Tunbs is on its way through the Majlis. The row will distract attention from international efforts to curb its nuclear program and support the transformation of the international waterway into Iranian territorial water.

If Iran really can copy the captured US spy drone and plumb its secret codes, this will have far-reaching implications for a potential US or Israel strike against its nuclear sites.

Tehran is seeking a postponement of the nuclear negotiations with world powers set for April 13-14 in Istanbul, debkafile’s Iranian sources report. Washington and Jerusalem see Iran’s maneuvers as guided by two objectives: Having the venue removed from Istanbul and buying a couple more months before the diplomatic crunch - and so delaying any military option that Israel or possibly America may choose to exercise if last-chance diplomacy fails.  Russian rhetoric targets the US military and naval buildup around Iran.

A hurried decision not to de-commission the USS Ponce helicopter marine carrier after duty in Libya - but to refit it for deployment in the Persian Gulf by May as a floating base for SEAL commando teams - was confirmed by the US Pentagon and Navy Sunday, Jan. 29. This base will expand the commandos' range in coastal areas, especially against Iranian speedboats, and support counter-measures against mines which Iran threatens to plant in the Strait of Hormuz for the US-EU oil embargo. 

Tehran is kicking back hard for Barack Obama's three-prong anti-Iran warfronts in the economic, covert and allied spheres. After having its horizon for expansion shrunk to its front door in the Persian Gulf, Iran's rulers are looking for trouble, hoping to provoke a limited military clash with the United ...

Against Tehran's bid to dictate the Persian Gulf's rules of navigation, the US and GCC are preparing to fight together or separately against any attempts to prevent free movement through the oil route. They would aim to recapture the three Persian Gulf islands held by Iran, which are the ...

The armies of Saudi Arabia and fellow GCC states stood ready Thursday Jan. 5, for Washington to stand up to Iranian threats and send an aircraft carrier or several warships through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.  Notwithstanding their military inferiority, the Iranians believe they can snatch a measure of success from a military confrontation now, which they expect to be limited – at least at first – and are therefore ratcheting up their belligerence day after day.

Armed US-Iranian hostilities are dangerously close – more so even than the six-to-eight months widely predicted. By posting a Keep Out sign over the Persian Gulf for the USS Stennis, Tehran is goading the Obama administration into action sooner rather than later. DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday assesses the nail-biting face-off generated by US pressure on Iran and Tehran's tactics for throwing it back in America's face. Israel must weigh how far to join US action against the cost of Iranian retaliation.

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In another heated escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran Tuesday, Jan. 3, threatened to take action if the US aircraft carrier USS Stennis, which "moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill returns to the Persian Gulf." Army chief Lt. Gen. Ataolla Salehi said:" Iran will not repeat this warning." It is hard to see Washington caving in over Tehran's ultimate challenge to the freedom of this vital international waterway and accepting Iran's assumed right to control passage.

By a media trick, Tehran proved its claim that closing the Strait of Hormuz is as "easy as drinking water," debkafile reports.  First thing Saturday morning, Saturday, Dec. 31, Iran's state agencies "reported" long-range and other missiles had been test-fired as part of its ongoing naval drill around the Strait of Hormuz. At 0900, Tehran announced the test was delayed. But meanwhile, for five hours Saturday, not a single warship, merchant vessel or oil tanker ventured into the strategic strait, although not a shot was fired.

Washington has posted a third carrier opposite Iran's shores, debkafile's military sources report. It is supported by amphibious assault ships and up to 4,000 marines and sailors, bringing the total US strength in these waters to three carriers and 10,000 combat personnel.
Our sources add: In the face of the USS Nassau (LHA-4) Amphibious Ready Group 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, Iran called off its "aid ship" to Gaza.

The US Fifth fleet and USS Eisenhower refrained from shooting an Iranian spy plane collecting intelligence from the American carrier on April 21 because they are under orders not to respond to hostile Iranian acts without permission direct from Washington. Gulf governments fear US military passivity will encourage Tehran to be bolder and more provocative, emulating Pyongyang which got away scot-free with sinking a South Korean vessel.