Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr was shut down in mid-October for fear of an explosion. Saturday, Dec. 1, an authoritative Russian nuclear industry source revealed why: “Indicators showed that some small external parts were… in the [Bushehr] reactor vessel….” They were identified as “bolts beneath the fuel cells.” debkafile: Russian experts estimated that a Bushehr explosion had the potential for causing a million Iranian deaths and hundreds of thousands of radiation victims in Iran and across the Persian Gulf emirates.

Even before the Gaza conflict was over, the next major steps were in motion: US-manned Patriots and Awacs are in the pipeline for deployment on the Turkish Syrian border; Moscow moved its Black Sea Fleet’s naval task force opposite Gaza/Israeli shores, joining Tehran’s concern that the US-led coalition which wrecked Iran’s “southern front” in Gaza would turn against Syria and Hizballah. The US and Israel are braced for violent Iranian retribution; while Egyptian President Morsi’s troubles could undo the fragile Gaza ceasefire.

A senior official in Tokyo announced Wednesday, May 23, that the Japanese government will seek parliamentary approval for a bill allowing Japanese firms to insure tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia if European insurers refused to do so. The nuclear talks between the six powers and Iran in Baghdad Wednesday, instead of taking place under the shadow of tougher sanctions as Israel expected, saw the toughest one, the oil embargo, falling apart. Russian and British officials began raising the prospect of an Iran-Israel war.

Russia is preparing a surprise proposal for the resumed P5+1 powers nuclear negotiations with Iran in Baghdad Wednesday, May 23, debkafile reports exclusively. By tabling an independent plan, Moscow would break ranks with the “unified front on Iran” declared by US President Barack Obama at the G8 summit Saturday and enhance Iran’s bargaining position.
Israel would be the loser. Israeli ministers warned the six powers that their demands of Iran are far below the bar needed to curb its nuclear program.

Iran and Russia both won ground on the Syrian battlefield at America’s expense with this week’s Assad victory over rebels in Idlib, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s strategic analysts in its next issue out Friday.  The indecisive way the Israeli confrontation with Iran’s Palestinian proxy Jihad Islami wound down also added points to Tehran - and Moscow less directly - after Washington backed away from the Gaza episode and Israel threw in the sponge. These players were testing the ground for a possible Israeli-Iranian clash.
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The upgrading and interconnection of two Russian-equipped Middle East electronic and surveillance stations – on Jabal Al Harrah south of Damascus opposite Israel’s Sea of Galilee, and Lebanon’s Mt. Sannine - are tailored by Moscow to give Tehran early warning of a US or Israeli attack, debkafile reports. The two facilities now cover all of Israel and Jordan, the Gulf of Aqaba and northern Saudi Arabia, as well as US and Israeli naval and aerial Mediterranean movements up to Cyprus and Greece.

Western intelligence sources reporting in real time concluded Saturday night, Feb. 11 that Bashar Assad's loyal forces had by and large managed to subdue the rebellion against the regime, even though flare-ups are still to come. They are now purging the last pockets of resistance, especially in Syria's third largest city, Homs. The Syrian ruler will go on record as crushing his own people with the help of non-Arab Iran and Russia. For the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia this is a contretemps.

Tehran plans an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, debkafile reports. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the clamor raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified Fordo bunker-site. Yet, according to a Tel Aviv University think tank scenario, Israel is resigned to a nuclear Iran and would accept a US defense pact instead of retaliating. debkafile's Washington sources refute this:  Barack Obama is resolved to use force if need be to preempt a nuclear Iran.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin decided it was safe to go ahead and load Iran's first nuclear reactor with fuel on Aug. 21 - effectively making it active - after the US and Israel did not seem troubled by the prospect of the reactor going on stream, debkafile reports. Either the two governments had been caught flatfooted, he figured, or come to terms with Iran's capacity to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Iran is to build 10 more uranium enrichment plants in fortified mountain caves.

Sudden word from Moscow and Tehran on Aug. 11 that Russia will activate Iran's first nuclear power reactor on Aug. 21 by loading the fuel has caused a major flap in Israel in view of its military aspects.DEBKA reports: Only last week, Russian leaders assured Washington that it would not go on line this year.

Former Bush adviser John Bolton commented that once the rods are in, Israel can no longer attack this reactor because of spreading radiation.

Countering the new US energy sanctions against Iran, Russian and Iranian ministers Wednesday, July 14 signed energy-related agreements, including sales to Iran of Russian petroleum products and petrochemicals. debkafile's Moscow sources: These pacts offset the impact of Barack Obama's new US sanctions for hitting Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps' prime source of income and void Binyamin Netanyahu's trust in energy sanctions to remove Tehran's nuclear threat.