Russian antiaircraft officers ambushed an Azerbaijani Air Force Israeli-made drone to gain access to its secrets, warn Israel to keep its hands off the Caspian region, and signal Tehran its willingness to cooperate in halting the spread of Azerbaijani and Israel influence.

The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.

The Muslim Brotherhood's role in post-revolt Arab capitals – sought by Barack Obama – faces counter-pressure from Russia, China and Iran – particularly in Damascus. Not just Iran, but Russia and China too have stepped up their arms consignments to the regime, loath to see fundamentalist Muslim power reigning in any Middle East capital. In Damascus, Moscow has set up a military-diplomatic headquarters.

DEBKA's Intelligence History files tell the story of how the plot to depose Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev 20 years ago succeeded in one sense and misfired in two: His removal marked the demise of the Soviet empire and also the unforeseen rise of Boris Yeltsin.

Monday night and Tuesday, Aug-29-30, three international heavyweights - Russia, the European Union and  key Muslim nations – gave Syrian President Bashar Assad tough ultimatums for ending his barbaric crackdown on protest. Nevertheless, on Monday, his troops shot dead 17 people in Syrian cities - even as he received Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov who arrived in Damascus with a last warning from President Dmitry Medvedev. Pushed into a tight corner, Assad may opt for war on his neighbors.

Thursday night, Aug. 4, the commanders of Syria's military crackdown on the city of Hama ordered suspected protesters to be picked up off the streets for summary execution. Within hours, hundreds of victims were "executed" by firing squad in Nasser Square. The order was issued when the military failed to overcome mounting resistance.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Syrian President Bashar Assad: "We are watching how the situation is developing. It's changing and our approach is changing as well."

Twelve hours after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Assad he faced a "sad fate" if he failed to introduce reforms, Moscow's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin accused the Western alliance of planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the Assad regime "with the long-reaching goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran."
In an Izvestia interview Friday, Aug. 5, Rogozin added: "This statement means that the planning [of the military campaign] is well underway."

As Moscow prepares to block strong UN Security Council condemnation of Syrian violence against protest, Russian diplomats Monday, Aug. 1, launched a quiet effort to start freezing sanctions imposed on Iran over its military nuclear program in return for Tehran satisfactorily answering the International nuclear watchdog's "questions and concerns," debkafile's Moscow and Washington sources report.
Iranian Foreign Minister Saeed Jalili visits Moscow Aug. 17. Washington is standing by for results.

The Obama administration is willingly handing the diplomatic lead for ending the Libyan crisis to Moscow having concluded that America no longer commands the resources for carrying global burdens on its own. Muammar Qaddafi, supported by Russia and Africa, will insist on staying in power until the agreed transition ...

In its coming issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly analyzes expectations from the negotiations already afoot (amid violence and setbacks) between Muammar Qaddafi, on one side, and the US, Russia, NATO and the rebels, on the other. Still in control of Libya's army, biggest tribes, cities and oil, Qaddafi will loom large over Libya's future - even after he steps down.
The stalling of the Arab Revolt's spread obliges the US, Britain and France to reassess their Middle East positions.

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The three scientists who planned, designed, built and operated Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr died Tuesday night, June 20, when a Rusaero flight from Moscow crashed at Petrozavodsk in northwest Russia. debkafile reveals they were among the 44 passengers killed. Their loss is a blow to Russia's atomic reactor and energy industries because of their expertise in synchronizing different nuclear systems. Some intelligence sources say that Bushehr's amalgam of systems made it vulnerable to the Stuxnet virus two years ago.

The Arab revolts are resolving themselves into bids for getting rid of three rulers who refuse to step down, Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh, who survived an assassination bid and promises to return as good as new; Syria's Bashar Assad, whom the West allows to survive, and Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, ...

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has run into major hurdles in his ploy for using a unity pact between his Fatah and the extremist Hamas as the fulcrum for a diplomatic offensive against Israel to climax in UN recognition of a Palestinian state in September. This is reported by debkafile's exclusive Middle East sources. The US and Russia have nixed Abbas' international moves until his unity partner Hamas recognizes Israel and Jordan's Abdullah accuses him of two-timing him with that same partner.

 

After sitting on the fence for six months amid the Arab uprisings, Moscow now takes a stand, capitalizing on the positions slipping out of the United States grasp in the turbulent slipstream of the Arab Revolt.

Qaddafi has no fear of sanctions. His vast assets are mostly deposited safely in Libyan banks which he controls and he is heavily staked in European industry, banking, media and weapons industries.

Stuxnet is admitted for the first time as having attacked five Iranian targets. The admission has stirred up more trouble between Moscow and Tehran who are playing the blame game over the delay in activating the Bushehr nuclear reactor.

Iran's atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi said on Jan. 29 that the Bushehr nuclear power plant would be connected to the national grid on April 9. He "forgot" about Tehran's promise to fully activate its first nuclear reactor Tuesday, Jan. 25.  debkafile's sources reveal that, Iran's hand was held back at the last minute by Russia's nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko. He warned Stuxnet was back and activating the reactor could trigger a nuclear catastrophe costing millions of lives.

The Islamic regime in Tehran suffers the ignominy of keeping its first nuclear reactor shut down at Bushehr for fear of the lurking Stuxnet. Russia asks NATO to investigate the dangerous malworm for fear of a Chernobyl-scale atomic catastrophe.

The Russian investigators of the explosion which killed 35 people and injured 180 at Moscow's main airport Monday, Jan. 24, are certain it was not carried out by a female but by a single male suicide bomber, 30-40 years old, heavily-built and most likely of European appearance.They are looking for accomplices who may have witnessed the attack and left. The Russian government has launched a criminal probe into the security lapse that made the attack possible.

A secret meeting in Tel Aviv on Dec. 16 between the high-ranking Russian emissary Mikhail Margelov and representatives of the South Sudanese semi-autonomous government so infuriated Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that he ordered his intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman to hit back by accusing Israel of recruiting Egyptian agents as spies. Cairo fears upheavals following Jan. 9 referenda in oil-rich South Sudan and Abyei will prejudice its control of Nile waters.