Libyans see their revolution falling off track. Their transitional leader Abdel-Jalil predicts a slide into civil war - or worse, former rebel militias are fighting it out in the streets, pro-Qaddafi forces are returning to the attack, and oil deals are transacted by faceless ministers who offer no accounting to the citizenry.

Many believe ...

The capture of Muammar Qaddafi's son Saif al Islam, 39, outside Obari near the southern desert town of Sabha is far from being the last chapter of the ex-ruler's family role in the struggle to control of Libya. The Zintan militia (in league with Misurata) is holding him until demands for government representation are met.  Much is still unknown about how he was caught. His "capture" may be part of a deal he struck to allot the militias funds from the Qaddafi fortune to support their ambitions.

Muammar Qaddafi's eldest son Saif al-Islam, on the run across Africa since his father's death, is weighing the options for his survival with the Qaddafi fortune in hand. He may decide to take his chances on an International Court trial and meanwhile stay safe in an ICC cell to work on his case, provided he can keep control of the fortune.  Alternatively, he may throw himself on the mercy of unstable African dictators and rely on mercenaries to protect him from Libyan rebel vengeance. 

Muammar Qaddafi never trusted his eldest son Saif al Islam and cut him out in favor of his younger brother Mutassim as heir apparent. It was Saif who persuaded his father he would be safer in Sirte than in his desert sanctuary. But when Qaddafi was run to ground, ...

How did Muammar Qaddafi's oldest son manage to survive his father on the fateful Thursday, Oct. 20?  Both were in the same convoy fleeing Sirte and bombed.  This question is addressed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly in its latest issue out Friday. It also goes back in time and describes how Saif clawed his way back to Tripoli from the exile imposed on him by the late dictator.  Qaddafi never trusted him or appointed him heir apparent.

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In an extraordinary turnabout in the Tripoli standoff between West-backed Libyan rebels and Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam turned up with cheering crowds at the Rixos hotel early Tuesday, Aug. 23, and told foreign reporters he was never captured as widely reported. "We are winning,"he said.
His detention was not only reported by the rebels but "confirmed" embarrassingly by the International Criminal Court's prosecutors. "The rebels fell into a trap," said Saif.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe persuaded the Cameron government climb down from its high Libyan horse and accept that diplomacy is the only sensible option for ending the war. The UK is in no position to dictate terms to Muammar Qaddafi. NATO objects to being left holding the baby.