Syria launches Scuds against the rebels as they near the Al Safira chemical weapons depot. Lavrov asserts that the weapons are under control – for now. Netanyahu goes to Amman for talks with King Abdullah.

Obama has decided to break through the Syrian stalemate by sending scouts out to find a Syrian rebel with leadership qualities who is fighting Assad in Syria. When this leader is found and approved by the president, the United States will provide him and his militia with advanced hardware ...

Moscow has come up with a new euphemism for the naval bases it seeks to acquire in the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean Sea – Leisure and Rest Sites. Russian Navy chiefs warn the Kremlin that its naval assets are not up to defending Russian interests in the Middle ...

Tehran accuses the new Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan of engineering bombing attack which killed half of Assad’s top team in Damascus. It sought to drive home the message that enemies of Assad are enemies of Iran and will be punished.

After a secret US-Russian deal on Syria fell apart, Moscow began maneuvering to keep Bashar on as a figurehead president while preserving the army and security establishment intact and in power.

Agreement on a Syria-led transition based on mutual consent that includes members of the current government” was reported by UN-Arab League peace envoy Kofi Annan from the Action Group on Syria meeting in Geneva Saturday, June 30. He avoided mentioning Bashar Assad, but was not able to conceal the gap between Washington and Moscow over the Syrian ruler’s fate: The US still wants him gone, while Russia is still adamant about propping him up.  That is the devil in the Annan peace effort.

Aviation Week reports: “Evidence is mounting that the US defense community and the Obama administration view 2013 as the likely window for a bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities.” The chaos of the Syrian government’s fall could be used “to disguise such an attack,” the journal suggests. “The tools…are all operational.” Friday night, top US and Russian diplomats failed to bridge differences on Syria ahead of a UN-sponsored Action Group parley in Geneva. Military preparations are building up for an attack on Syria.
 

Russia is not averse to Bashar Assad’s exile from Damascus to his retreat in the Alawite Mountains because his army would move west with him and the new coastal enclave would secuire secure Russia’s Tartus and Latakia naval and marine bases (see attached map).

British and German brokers were asked to assure Moscow that military intervention in Syria is not planned now, but that Alawites will never stand up to Assad move him aside unless they see the rebels adequately armed for vanquishing his army. Moscow must therefore accept this.

Vladimir Putin, after taking stock of the early days of his third presidency, concludes that Moscow’s handling of the al-Houla massacre and Syria’s ongoing collapse into civil war will go down as a Russian foreign policy failure. He personally comes out of it as the patron of a bloodthirsty tyrant. He has quietly ordered the Russian arms ship Professor Katsman to leave the Syrian port before unloading its cargo. Putin is now taxed with determining his next steps on Syria.

Tuesday night, April 10, after Damascus skipped the truce laid down in the UN-Arab envoy Kofi Annan’s plan and escalated its attacks on the Syrian population, a change of tone was detected in Washington, reflecting the feeling that America can no longer stay aloof from the Syrian tragedy. One plan discussed is for a US air strike against an Assad regime and/or military target to show his loyal troops and the Syrian opposition that the Syrian ruler is fallible. Thursday, the UN Security Council will hear Annan's report.

Moscow has stepped into the vacuum created by US President Barack Obama’s decision to stay out of Middle East troubles while campaigning for a second term. After blocking the way to direct Western and Arab military intervention in Syria through the Mediterranean, Russia sent its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – to secure Iran against a potential US/Israeli attack via its northern and eastern neighbors, debkafile reports. Armenia is to host a Russian radar station.

Iran and Russia poured out every kind of assistance to shore Assad up – military, intelligence, financial, diplomatic and strategic as well as a supply of arms for crushing the opposition. Iran’s reward is the substantial strengthening of its alliance with Syria, Hizballah and Palestinian extremists. Hamas ...

After learning in a caustic exchange with Hillary Clinton that Obama had turned down the safe havens military plan Syria, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal offered Arab air forces for an operation against Assad. Riyadh also stepped up arms deliveries to Syrian rebels.

British and Qatari special operations units are operating under cover with rebel forces in the Syrian city of Homs, debkafile’s exclusive sources report. They are not engaged in direct combat with the Syrian forces bombarding Syria's third largest city, but serve as tactical advisers and logistical aides. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is using this foreign military presence in Homs, revealed here for the first time, as grist for his own Syrian initiative.
More about this in the coming  DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue out Friday.
 

After failing in Libya, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev are determined not to let Syria, Moscow's only strategic partner in the Middle East, slip out of their hands. If Bashar Assad can't be saved, Moscow wants to be sure Damascus does not fall completely under Western sway.