The conditions Vladimir Putin will lay down for a G8 consensus on Syria are that Bashar Assad remains in power in any political solution and Iran be part of that solution. He will address the summit opening Monday in Northern Ireland in the interests of his allies, Bashar Assad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah and demand that the summit acknowledge them as winners of the war. Putin will block any attempt by Barak Obama to use the election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s president to counter those successes.

Barack Obama’s new appointees, Susan Rice, National Security adviser, and Samantha Power, ambassador to the UN, favored US intervention in Libya but not Syria. They prefer to help the president achieve his pivot to Asia, but neither al Qaeda nor Iran will give them the chance.

Word from Moscow Friday, May 31, of a new contract discussed for the sale to Syria of MiG-29 M/M2 fighters, was a Russian tactic to disguise the next Syrian war moves. debkafile: The MiG 29 is the tool Bashar Assad needs to try and overcome the Israeli Air Force’s electronic superiority.

Al Qaeda-Iraq has relocated to Syria and completed its merger with Jabhat al-Nusra. They control key areas of eastern Syria including a producing oil field and access to the Jordanian border and are posed to serve as a counterweight to the Shiite Hizballah.

Israeli leaders play down the approaching menace of the Syrian-Hizballah war of attrition backed by Tehran. Bt Prime Minister Netanyahu has set up a war room in his Jerusalem office for keeping track.

John Kerry finds the ground slipping from under his feet as he pursues Middle East peace initiatives on behalf of a boss beleaguered by scandal.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spent three hours with President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Tuesday, May, 14, trying to head off advanced Russian anti-air S-300 missile systems sales to Syria. Instead, the Russian leader issued a warning relating to Israel’s air strikes against Damascus.

Russian Navy Admiral Viktor Chirkov said Sunday, May 12, that a permanent staff of 20 officers is in place to run Russian fleet operations in the Mediterranean Sea. debkafile: Russia’s step aims at safeguarding the Assad regime and securing its Hizballah and Iranian allies. It also signals Moscow’s Middle East comeback.

Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu, while in Shanghai, faced a sharp dressing-down from President Vladimir Putin Monday, May 6 and a warning that further Israeli attacks on Damascus would not be tolerated.  Putin said highly advanced Russian weapons, including S-300 air defense systems, would be supplied at speed to Syria. 

Israel insists its  air force attacks on Syria targeted Hizballah and its Iranian weapons shipments. This does not cover explain the targeting Sunday, May 5, of Mt. Qassioun, moving Assad to threaten a war of attrition. The US plans to follow the Israeli operation with arms supplies for Syrian rebels and US air strikes.

Israeli military activity was reported Saturday, May 4 in Lebanon too - and not just over Syria.
US sources said earlier Israeli warplanes had struck targets in Syria including a chemical weapons depot outside Damascus, firing missiles remotely from Lebanese air space and the Golan.

US officials recently gave a video demonstration of an upgraded bunker buster bomb able to destroy Iran’s Fordo underground enrichment plant - in a bid to dissuade Israel from a unilateral attack on Iran, while thousands of Basij militiamen arrived in Syria from Iran.

Iran’s Basij are paramilitary troops trained for crushing urban unrest that jeopardizes the regime in Tehran. They have been deployed in Damascus and are relieving the Hizballah units guarding the Shiite Syrian villages along the Lebanese border.

The Israeli reserves call-up for the Syrian and Lebanese borders will continue until the end of the week, ready for a "military maneuver" next Sunday, May 5, debkafile reports.
 

debkafile reports Hizballah’s elite Al Qods Brigade suffered a grinding defeat – its gravest since first intervening in the Syrian civil war - and heavy losses at al Qusayr in the Homs sector Monday, April 29 in a surprise ambush. The rebels were reinforced by radical Salafists from Lebanon armed with Grad rockets.

The incoming US troops are to shield Jordan and preserve the throne against Syrian attack, al Qaeda incursions or domestic upheavals, as well opening up an option for military intervention in the Syrian civil war. Israel is actively involved in the military boost for the Jordanian king.

Under the plan, which Barack Obama has approved, Israeli military and intelligence officers will establish, arm, fund and train local militias to police the two enclaves under their command

Pushed hard by the US, Turkish officials opened discussions with Israel on the revival of their former military and intelligence collaboration, especially in relation to the Syrian conflict on which they agreed to pool intelligence and work together in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s Middle East trip was supposed to present the $10 billion US arms sales to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a signal for deterring a nuclear Iran. The Boston bombings shifted the onus of his trip to Syria and al Qaeda. Russian cooperation was a vital source of intelligence for nabbing the two bombers, Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, Friday, April 19. Russian President Vladimir Putin will almost certainly claim his quid pro quo in Syrian currency.

Al Qaeda’s rocket attack on Eilat from Sinai caught Israeli, US and Egyptian intelligence nappy. Israel is getting its act together with new units to man the three borders facing the new al Qaeda presence in Sinai, Syria and Iraq.