DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 31, 2004
Hamas-Hebron claimed responsibility for the double suicide attack Tuesday, August 31, on two crowded Beersheba buses, which left 15 Israelis dead and up to 100 injured. The twin blasts hit passengers, passing vehicles and pedestrians on the busy main street of this southern Israeli town, the first such attack inside Israel in six months. The suicide bombers may not have come from Hebron; they could equally have reached Beersheba from the Gaza Strip or infiltrated the Israeli Negev from Egyptian Sinai. the Gaza Strip to undergo, almost unnoticed, a geopolitical transformation that threatens not only to fill the space left by Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's fading plan to evacuate the Gaza Strip, but also to make the Palestinian terror war against Israel far more dangerous. The fallout is beginning to ripple out into further reaches of the Middle East.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 31, 2004
Russian-made S-5 unguided aircraft rockets were part of the Egyptian haul earlier this month of a large shipment of missiles, stopped before they were smuggled to the Palestinians through the Rafah tunnels. The S-5 would be an important boost to the Palestinian arsenal; some may still defeat attempts to stop them and reach the Gaza Strip - either through the smuggling tunnels or by other routes, especially after Israeli troops are pulled back. debkafile reveals the Palestinians are planning to convert these Soviet-era 20-25-km range rockets into surface missiles capable of hitting southern Israel's key cities of Beersheba, Ashkelon and Ashdod. The rockets were originally Soviet-designed for use by the Mi-24 helicopter, the Russian equivalent of the American AH-64 Apache, in Afghanistan. In Palestinian hands, they would upgrade the missile threat beyond that posed by the hit-or-miss home-made Qassams, even the improved Nasser version.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 18, 2004
Manmade barriers are springing up around the Middle East at points where manmade conflicts are most intractable. Be they security fences, earthworks, moated ramparts, steel walls, razor wire - or combinations thereof, their purpose is to apply division and separation to breaking up difficulties into manageable elements. Will this device work? Some think it's worth a try. Israeli forces who drove into the southern Gaza Strip town of the terrorist hotbed of Rafah's Tel Sultan early Tuesday, May 18, came with giant engineering corps bulldozers. Earth banks were speedily thrown up to isolate from their environment the spaces in which Israeli armored and infantry units are hunting for wanted terrorists, cut off their escape routes and provide perches for Israeli snipers lying in wait for escapees.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 27, 2004
No sooner had the tens of thousands of mourners dispersed after the ceremonies and demonstrations of strength marking the death of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin last Tuesday, March 22, in an Israeli missile attack, when a thousand Hamas top and middle-ranking activists dived underground. This is reported by debkafile's counter-terror sources. Since then, known Hamas operatives have maintained perfect telephone silence, their relatives are in the dark about their whereabouts and contacts are maintained only through trusted couriers. This situation presented the Hamas command center in Damascus with the problem of communicating urgent instructions to the men on the ground in the Gaza Strip - urgent for two reasons:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 22, 2004
Sunday's suicide bombing by Arafat's al Aqsa Brigades of Jerusalem bus No. 14, in which at least 7 Israelis died and 62 were hurt, was not unexpected. It occurred just three weeks after a similar blast aboard a No. 19 bus outside the prime minister's residence in the capital killed 12 Israelis. The wreckage was hauled to Hague and parked outside the international court in time for the Monday, February 23, opening of its hearings on the legality of Israel's unfinished defense barrier. The attack should not have been unexpected because on Wednesday, February 11, Yasser Arafat - as debkafile reported (Enraged Arafat Orders All-out Terror) - issued an explicit order to all Palestinian groups, including his own, to hit Israeli targets with all their strength everywhere in order to sabotage Sharon's unilateral proposals come what may.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 11, 2004
Yasser Arafat's enraged call for an all-round escalation of Palestinian violence distinguished the Palestinian response to the latest Israeli counter-terror operation in the Gaza Strip from former episodes, according to debkafile's Palestinian experts. He gave an unusually direct order to each and every Palestinian group, faction and organization to launch instant large-scale terrorist attacks against Israeli targets on the scale of the March 2002 massacres which precipitated Israel's comprehensive West Bank Operation Defensive Shield campaign. Prime minister Ahmed Qureia who tried to reach him by telephone from Rome was not put through. Arafat refused to talk to him.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 2, 2004
Updated February 4:
Kurdish parties in northern Iraq later denied news reports claiming that Turkey was responsible for the double suicide attacks. In a joint statement, the KDP and the PUK, whose offices were attacked, conveyed sincere appreciation for the offer to treat the injured in Turkey. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "Turkey has never been involved in such incidents - not since the beginning of the Republic, not during the Ottoman era and not now."
Two huge bombs were detonated Sunday, February 1, at the very moment that Iraq's Kurds joined their leaders for mass celebrations at the headquarters of their two parties in the north Iraqi town of Arbil. The crowds had gathered to mark the Muslim Feast of the Sacrifice and the passing of their archenemy Saddam Hussein. According to debkafile's sources in Kurdistan and Washington, PUK leader Talal Jalabani talking later to senior US officials - believed to include visiting US Pentagon second-in-command Paul Wolfowitz - bluntly accused Turkish intelligence of orchestrating the massacre with the aim of wiping out the entire Iraqi Kurdish leadership at a single stroke.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 3, 2004
Hours after an privately chartered Egyptian airplane crashed in the Red Sea at 04.44 local time on Saturday, January 3, just after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh, French Justice Minister Dominique Perben asked prosecutors to open a preliminary inquiry for manslaughter. The justice ministry in Paris said tactfully that the manslaughter inquiry "does not prejudge in any way the causes of the catastrophe," but provides a legal framework for a joint French-Egyptian investigation. There were no survivors of the 148 people aboard the plane. The Egyptians claimed that the crash of a Boeing 737, operated by the Egyptian company Flash Airlines, was "absolutely not the result of a terrorist act but is linked to a technical failure of the plane. debkafile's aviation experts say the investigators will be called upon to consider a host of anomalies and enigmas before they reach any such definite conclusion.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 29, 2003
Last weekend, Ahmed Qureia aka Abu Ala became the second Palestinian prime minister to warn Yasser Arafat he was about to resign. He determined to throw in the sponge after discovering that the Palestinian Authority's coffers were bare. There was nothing left to meet the January 1 payroll for 80,000 public workers and security personnel. In fact the PA has no operating funds at all. Arafat, according to debkafile's Palestinian sources, greeted the threat in stony silence. If Abu Ala quits now, he will have lasted a month and-a-half, compared with the four months his processor survived on the job before being driven out.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 9, 2003
The next Hamas suicide bomber can kill without strapping a bomb belt to his body. debkafile's counter-terror sources reveal the new type of explosive going into use after the collapse of the Cairo ceasefire talks as being much smaller and lighter while packing a much larger bang. It is compressed enough to be carried in a small bag or hidden in the killer's clothes. A vest can be soaked in its liquefied form. Improved detonators and timers enable the bomber to start the countdown before he reaches target. By the time he is searched at the entrance to a mall or bus station, the bomb is on timer.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 5, 2003
Despite his staunch loyalty to Yasser Arafat, Ahmed Qureia looks like suffering the same fate as his predecessor, Mahmoud Abbas - being ground to dust by his boss, according to debkafile's Palestinian sources. To generate a semblance of order, Arafat placed Qureia at the head of a "caretaker government" at midnight of November 4, when the provisional emergency government's 30-day term expired. However, it is hard to gloss over his world record for changing prime ministers, one every three months. Qureia, better known as Abu Ala, was caught napping. A longtime ally, he never expected to be at the receiving end of the treatment meted out to the "American puppet," Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen. Nevertheless, he found himself left high and dry as nominal head of a transitional cabinet that has no standing in the Palestinian constitution.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 26, 2003
The guerrilla rockets that pierced the fortifications surrounding Baghdad's landmark al Rashid hotel early Sunday, October 26, missed their presumed target, US deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz. Nonetheless, the attack makes the thought-provoking memo penned by his boss Donald Rumsfeld ten days earlier look like a self-fulfilling prophecy. The rockets slammed into this major US personnel center, hours after the decision to lift the curfew over Baghdad in view of "the improved security situation." The day before, a US Black Hawk helicopter was shot down near Tikrit shortly after Wolfowitz left Saddam's home town. Both times, Iraqi guerrillas knew where to find the deputy defense secretary and he had a lucky escape. The memo - described as "leaked" - was addressed to Wolfowitz and Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff. Its two pages contained questions loaded enough to be rhetorical. The points Rumsfeld made include these: The US has no way to measure whether it is winning or losing the global war on terror; we have not made truly "bold moves" to fight terrorists and we are in for "a long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 13, 2003
Yasser Arafat has been basking in the attention showered on him from far and wide following the Israeli cabinet's declaration Thursday, September 11, that he should be removed. Since then, he stands at the window of his battered Ramallah office, beaming and waving the victory sign. Saturday, September 13, he summoned foreign consuls and Israeli peace activists to pay their respects on the 10th anniversary of the failed Oslo Peace Accords (for which he won a Nobel Peace Prize). He told them that the UN Security Council members' warning to Israel not to expel him was an international guarantee for his safety. This has encouraged him to go for a starring solo role on the Palestinian stage and go for a mega-strike that beats everything the Palestinians have thus far inflicted on Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2, 2003
Tuesday, September 1, Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan, head of the Kurdish Workers Party - PKK - announced his movement, meanwhile renamed itself KADEK, was reviving the Kurdish revolt. Ocalan has been held in total isolation on the Imrali island prison in the Sea of Marmara since 2002, when the death sentence passed against him after his capture in 1999 was commuted to life without parole. The island is guarded by Turkish warships and attack helicopters equipped with surveillance instruments. Only prison guards set foot on the island; no visitors allowed. Ocalan's only contact with the outside world through heavily censored letters.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 17, 2003
mg class="picture" src="/dynmedia/pictures/WOLFUS.jpg" align="right" border="0">The Israeli-Palestinian deal concluded by defense minister Shaul Mofaz and internal defense minister Mohammed Dahlan Friday, August 15 was the outcome of a pressing American intervention to curb the wave of Palestinian terror Yasser Arafat and Syrian President Bashar Assad kicked off last week. US president George W. Bush, while still on vacation, deployed his emissaries on two key fronts, the Palestinian and the Syrian. To deal with the second head of the terrorist hydra, debkafile's intelligence sources disclose that US undersecretary of state William Burns was ordered on Thursday, August 14, to turn his plane round and head with all speed to Damascus instead of Amman. He was told to deliver a last warning to the Syrian president - to butt out of Iraq and to stop stirring up terrorism against Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 13, 2003
For some years now the Israeli Islamic Movement has been known to serve the Palestinian Hamas terrorist group as financial conduit and money launderer. Its fund-raising efforts for the families of Palestinian suicide killers have not gone unnoticed either. Some members have even been caught aiding and abetting these killers, transporting them to and from target areas, providing hideouts and intelligence - in more than one case to the Lebanese Hizballah as well.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 5, 2003
The suicide terror attack at the Blues cafe Mike's Place near the US Embassy in Tel Aviv last Wednesday, April 30, was made possible by grave security lapses - British and Israeli. British security and intelligence services have paid in the past - and will continue to pay long and dear - for their government's policy of giving extremist Muslims free rein in the country, a policy dating back to the 1950s. The Palestinian Liberation Organization's activists were the first to be welcomed in the UK, followed by a stream of political dissidents, heads of paramilitary militias and religious extremists on the run from Arab or Muslim countries, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt; next came Egyptian Jihad Islami and al Qaeda adherents.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 6, 2003
Fifteen Israelis - mostly high school pupils and Haifa university students - were murdered in a powerful blast generated by a Palestinian homicidal suicide while riding on a Haifa bus on Wednesday, March 5. Only two had lived to see their 45th year. The killer, a Palestinian aged 20 from the West Bank town of Hebron, was identified as Mahmoud Hamdan Selim Kawasme, member of a big Hebron clan and kinsman of a former mayor. A note found on his body praised to heaven the al Qaeda perpetrators of the September 11 atrocities in New York, in which more than 3000 people died.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 6, 2003
Large American contingents, airborne and heavy mechanized divisions, Marine task forces, aircraft carriers, helicopter fleets and hospital ships are speeding to jumping-off positions around Baghdad. The US is expected to launch the coming war against Iraq with parachute drops on Baghdad, together with commando landings in the city from the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. A large-scale force will meanwhile encircle the Iraqi capital, while a mighty tank force dashes north from Kuwait and Qatar, bypassing the southern Iraqi Shiite cities of Najef and Karbala and circumventing the Iraqi army defending Baghdad. Those tanks will join the encircling force. The object of this colossal movement of military strength is to lay Baghdad to siege. This tactic and the consistency of the strength for its execution, debkafile's military sources report, have been taken from the Israeli doctrine of besieging Palestinian West Bank cities in order to lower the level of terror.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 2, 2002
Every few weeks, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak tells Israel it must resume negotiations with the Palestinians that will lead them to a state. But on Sunday, December 1, he went a lot further. Addressing a Muslim clerical group in Cairo at an occasion marking the final prayer of the Ramadan holy month, he declared that international terror is not religious; nor is it the fault of Muslims or Arabs, but their reaction to political injustices meted out by the "international community".
The Egyptian leader thus became the first Arab leader to say out loud what every Arab and Muslim ruler believes - that Islamic terror, including suicide homicides, is a justified means of venting their sense of injustice towards the non-Muslim world.
Mubarak is not just talking. He is in the middle of political action, hauling out the Israeli-Palestinian issue and providing his auspices for a so-called attempt to draw Arafat's Fatah and the fundamentalist Hamas into an accord for ceasing their campaign of murder inside Israel, the pre-requisite for renewed Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
Under cover of this internationally lauded initiative, Mubarak has a quite different - if not opposite - agenda, as revealed in the latestDEBKA-Net-Weekly.