The rush of military advances claimed by Libyan rebels and the rumored near collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's army and his imminent flight are designed, debkafile's sources report, as a smokescreen for current occurrences. One is the semi-secret opening of Libyan government-rebel talks on the Tunisian island of Djerba Saturday and their significant progress. Another is the deep divisions in the rebel leadership. debkafile has for weeks been reporting on talks afoot on Qaddafi's incremental departure from power. 

The Middle East and North Africa are beset with two civil wars, have brought to power two military juntas, imperil seven regimes, including Pakistan and provided Al Qaeda with fresh fields to conquer.

To survive in the Middle East, a regime must not be long-lived and needs a loyal army. Also noted in Arab capitals was that the Islamist movement stood aside from the popular uprising in Tunisia.

Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has been overthrown in a military coup. Friday, Jan. 14 he fled his riot-stricken country in the middle of his fifth term as president, handing interim authority to Prime Minister Mohammad Ghannoushi. debkafile's sources report the real power in the land is the army.

Arab regimes were dismayed by the fall of the Tunisian president, the first Arab ruler to be overthrown by street demonstrations making way for a military coup. Tourists are being evacuated and European flights to Tunis cancelled.