DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 27, 2015
Syrian President Bashar Assad, in his first public speech in a year, Sunday, July 26, could afford to admit to loss of territory, after being handed Iran’s new rehabilitation plan for his army, debkafile reveals. Divisions and brigades are rebuilt into three armored commando super-divisions, one each for the northern, southern and Damascus fronts. The 4th Division would still defend Damascus. The 14th Division of Special Forces gets fresh officers under Iranian commanders. The US-Tehran nuclear accord effectively brings an Iranian military presence ever closer to the borders of Israel and Jordan
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 25, 2015
After hree rounds of Turkish bombing attacks on the Islamic State in northern Syria, Ankara and Washington agreed Saturday, July 25, to name the security zone covered by a “partial no fly zone” they had declared in northern Syria the “Islamic State free zone.” This name represents a US-Turkish concession to Iran of immunity for its allies, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah, in order to gain Tehran’s cooperation in the campaign against ISIS. This deal advances Syrian-Hizballah hold on northern Syria against Islamist assaults, but drops the Kurds by the wayside.
Jordan launches war on ISIS in Iraq, Turkish warplanes hit ISIS in Syria. US, Israel involved in both ops
DEBKAfile Special Report July 24, 2015
The Middle East woke up Friday, July 24, to two new, fully-fledged wars launched by Jordan and Turkey against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant as its forces advanced on their borders. The US and Israel are involved in both campaigns. Jordanian armored, commando and air forces are already operating deep inside Iraq, aided by Cobra helicopters provided by Israel, while Friday morning, Turkey conducted its first cross-border air strike against ISIS targets in Syria. Both governments also carried mass arrests of suspected Islamist terrorists.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2015
It has always been dangerous to predict Bashar Assad’s downfall, even now after his army and Hizballah have experienced grave military reverses. The US-backed rebels in the south are not doing too well either.
Turkey and Jordan said preparing buffer zones inside Syria. Israeli air support mooted. Putin issues warning
DEBKAfile Special Report June 30, 2015
Turkish and Jordanian armies were reported on June 30 to be getting ready to cross into Syria and set up security buffer zones – to fight ISIS, oppose the Assad regime and stem the never-ending flow of refugees. It is not clear if they are coordinated. Turkey has prepared 18,000 troops for the operation. Its air force is to impose a no-fly zone against Syrian flights. The Jordanian army is also on the ready to go in and said to be seeking Israel’s air force participation for air cover and a parallel no-fly zone in the south.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 2, 2015
Iran displayed exceptional cyber war skills by blacking out most of Turkey’s cities for twelve hours to punish Turkey for his policy shift towards the Saudi-led Sunni coalition.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 5, 2015
The Turkish and Pakistani prime ministers have worked on details of nuclear-sharing and military collaboration among the three Sunni powers initiated by Saudi King Salman to counter Iran’s drive for Shiite domination.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 26, 2015
Egypt and Israel are left out on a limb by the Saudi king Salman’s defection to supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and dialogue with Ankara, rather than helping Cairo to stand up to the new ISIS threat from next-door Libya and backing Egypt and Israel against Iran.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 8, 2014
US military sources revealed Monday, Dec. 8, that Israel’s air strikes near Damascus the day before wiped out Russian hardware including missiles dispatched post haste to help Syria and Hizballah frustrate a US no-fly zone plan for northern Syria. The Kremlin has warned that any no-fly zone over Syria would be treated as direct US intervention in the Syria war, and incur Russian military intervention. The advanced anti-air missiles and radar Moscow sent Syria and Hizballah to back up this warning were destroyed by Israel. Damascus threatens Israel with “unimaginable harm.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2014
The Obama strategy has drawn criticism for investing too little to achieve a short, sharp campaign to eradicate ISIS. Regional governments have too few troops to spare.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2014
Turkey stuns Washington by dropping out of the US-led coalition, refusing to fight jihadis or let its bases be used for air strikes.
Grave setbacks for Obama’s strategy: Turkey backs out of US-led war on IS. Germany, UK say no to air campaign
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 11, 2014
Turkey inflicted a stunning blow Thursday, Sept. 11 at President Barack Obama’s strategy for a broad US-led coalition for tackling and defeating the Islamic State, and the potential 11-member group which US Secretary of State John Kerry established in Jeddah that day. Ankara said its air bases would be unavailable for US-led attacks on “jihadists in Iraq and Syria.” Turkey would also “not take part in combat operations against militants.” This knocked out one of the props from under the Obama plan. The UK and Germany also said no to air strikes in Syria..
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 4, 2014
Kurdish President Masoud Barzani announces a referendum on independence, edged on by US, Israel and Turkey.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 25, 2014
The recent increase in Grad rocket fire on Ashkelon's coast is actually intended to hit the town’s oil port and the Trans-Israel oil pipeline linking it to Eilat, says debkafile. Islamic Jihad and Salafists in Gaza, working with Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in Sinai, aim to sabotage the new independent Iraqi Kurdish route through Turkey and Israel and ensure that Iran and ISIS retain control of regional oil. With the first oil shipments coming through, Israel becomes a major conduit for Kurdish oil and an indirect player in the Iraqi war.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 5, 2014
The US attempted to forge a new bloc of Turkey, Qatar, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood to counterbalance Iranian power, but Morsi’s ouster as Egyptian president put an end to the short-lived alliance.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 22, 2014
The US begins setting up a database to track foreign Islamists’ movements in Syria and Iraq without Turkish cooperation, but Al Qaeda’s tactics make it a difficult task.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 7, 2014
Two Syrian rebel militias judged moderate in Washington have in the last few days taken delivery and begun using the first advanced US weapon to be deployed in more than three years of civil war, debkafile reveals. It is the heavy anti-tank, optically-tracked, wire-guided BGM-71 TOW.
Syrian rebels allowed to attack Latakia from Turkish soil under Turkish air cover. Iran raises Cain in Ankara
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 29, 2014
Turkey has ratcheted up its intervention in the Syrian war to an unprecedented level, debkafile reports exclusively. For the first time in the three-year conflict, Turkey is giving Syrian rebel forces, including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, passage through its territory to attack the northwestern Syrian coastal area around Latakia, the Assad clan’s birthplace. But if the rebels are thrown back, will the Turkish army come to their aid? If so, it would be Ankara’s first outright military incursion into Syria and NATO’s first intrusion in its civil war.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 10, 2014
The thaw in Turkish-Iranian relations is producing a joint effort to snatch the Syrian opposition from the US and Saudi Arabia, while also circumventing the US-Russian takeover of Geneva 2.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Turkish-Iranian intelligence cooperation has produced an operation against Syria rebel supplies through Turkey. Tehran wants to redirect Turkish exports from its Israeli route back to Syria, and use the Turkish route to promote Iranian products in Europe.