If Qaddafi can send large convoys across 900 kilometers of Libyan highway to Niger undisturbed, he is demonstrably in control of most parts of the country. As long as he alive and at large, NATO and the rebels cannot hope to extend their control beyond Tripoli and Benghazi, especially ...

The US, Turkey, Iran and the Iraqi Kurdish government have joined hands to liquidate the Kurdish rebellions against Ankara and Tehran. They have been temporarily distracted from their campaign against Syria's Bashar Assad.

Former Al Qaeda adherent Abdel-Hakim Belhaj is groomed by the US and other NATO allies as future ruler of Libya. They have cast him as the role model of the new Islamist elite "converted to democracy" for future government in Egypt, Tunisia and other countries targeted by the Arabian Spring.

Home Front Commander Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday, Sept. 5 of the increasing peril of a total Middle East war in the wake of the Arab revolts and Israel's rift with Turkey. His comments shocked Israel's policy-makers and defense establishment out of their placidity. The defense minister's adviser Amos Gilead, hurriedly denied this prediction. "Israel's security situation has never been better," he said insisting "The Arab regimes around us are stable."
debkafile: The general's wake-up call was both apt and timely.

debkafile's US sources disclose that the Erdogan government may act as though it calls the shots in the region to cow Israel, but Turkey is fast sliding into deep economic slump. In Washington, the Erdogan government's threat to incite an "Arab revolt" against Israel is seen as beyond acceptable diplomatic bounds, while its other threat on maritime movement in the Mediterranean is ridiculed: "The Turkish Navy is no match for Israeli missile boat technology, electronic jamming and tracking systems, submarines and close air cover."

For two years, Turkey has tirelessly maligned Israel, aided its enemies and schemed to destroy its army's strategic value as a key American ally. This campaign hit a serious contretemps in the UN report out Friday, Sept. 2 which justified Israel's Gaza blockade and its navy's interception of a Turkish vessel bent on breaching that blockade, although Israel was assailed for its "excessive response" to the violence of Turkish extremists.  Ankara thereupon expelled the Israeli ambassador and suspended its military accords with Israel.

The lion's share is promised France of Libya's oil reserves with smaller stakes for Britain, Italy and Qatar. But the rebels may be counting their chickens too fast. First, the war is not yet won and the promises may stay on paper and second, only the US has the ...

Two CIA agents, one working undercover, were instrumental in opening the doors of Tripoli to the rebels. One was a close Qaddafi confidant called Mahmud Bin Juma'a, the second Khalifa Hafter, spent 25 year in America and is marked for high office.

The results of a recent opinion poll in Egypt shocked Washington. Two-thirds of the sample canvassed promised to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist Salafi movements, leaving pro-democracy and liberal factions no more than a third. The leading MB candidate Salim Al-Awa wants to cut off ties with ...

DEBKA's Intelligence History files tell the story of how the plot to depose Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev 20 years ago succeeded in one sense and misfired in two: His removal marked the demise of the Soviet empire and also the unforeseen rise of Boris Yeltsin.

On Wednesday, Aug. 31, the Obama administration admitted that former al Qaeda extremists who fought US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were part of the rebel push to capture Tripoli. Further highlighting Al Qaeda's importance, Muammar Qaddafi instructed his son Saadi to contact self-styled Tripoli commander Abd Al-Hakim Belhadj, one of the a/m extremists, to discuss ways of ending the war. Qaddafi would have to follow in the West's footsteps and work with al Qaeda supporters if he plans guerrilla warfare against the rebels, the US and NATO.

NATO, Britain and France are too broke to finish the job the started in Libya. The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council is ready to provide financing but wants a NATO military arm for overthrowing the Assad regime in Syria and promoting its other interests. The Obama administration welcomes the hook-up to relieve ...

The role of Iran and Hizballah in manipulating the ongoing Palestinian war on Israel from Gaza is now manifest, debkafile's military sources report. They planned, orchestrated and funded the coordinated attacks on the Eilat Highway Thursday, Aug. 18 and its sequel: volleys of 90 missiles launched day and night from Gaza against a million Israeli civilians. The Netanyahu government hesitates to send the IDF to stop the missiles flying from Gaza lest the same aggressors open another front leading to a regional war.

Intense diplomatic efforts by Washington Saturday, Aug. 20, have produced a compromise for resolving the Egyptian-Israeli crisis - moments before their 1979 peace accord was overturned. Cairo agreed not to recall the Egyptian ambassador from Israel, whereas the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak apologized publicly for the deaths of three Egyptian policemen.  debkafile discloses: Israeli also agreed to renegotiate the treaty's Sinai demilitarization clause banning an Egyptian troop presence.

NATO is reverting to its "shock and awe" plan to finally bomb Muammar Qaddafi out of power, although nothing is known about Washington's position or participation. The rebels are already rejoicing and boasting about fictitious victories.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Damascus mission started with a military ultimatum and ended on a weak note which drew a contemptuous reaction from Bashar Assad. Damascus is working against the clock. Assad hopes to have broken the back of the anti-Assad protest. Otherwise, zero military conscription will break ...

As his tanks and artillery stormed the eastern Syrian town of Deir al-Zour, killing 100 civilians in one day, the US and Turkey Sunday night, Aug. 7 began to turn the screw on President Bashar Assad: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu to press Syria to "return its military to the barracks," during his visit to Syria Tuesday. The Syrian ruler with Iranian backing spurned the ultimatum even before the minister reached Damascus.

Thursday night, Aug. 4, the commanders of Syria's military crackdown on the city of Hama ordered suspected protesters to be picked up off the streets for summary execution. Within hours, hundreds of victims were "executed" by firing squad in Nasser Square. The order was issued when the military failed to overcome mounting resistance.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Syrian President Bashar Assad: "We are watching how the situation is developing. It's changing and our approach is changing as well."

Twelve hours after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Assad he faced a "sad fate" if he failed to introduce reforms, Moscow's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin accused the Western alliance of planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the Assad regime "with the long-reaching goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran."
In an Izvestia interview Friday, Aug. 5, Rogozin added: "This statement means that the planning [of the military campaign] is well underway."

While his bloody crackdown on Hama grabs headlines, and Bashar Assad's fights for his life against his people, Saudi Arabia eyes the eastern Euphrates Valley and its towns of Deir el-Zour and Abu Kamal for severance from Syria to link up with the Iraqi Anbar province and form a new ...