American TV networks interrupted their broadcasts at 05:45 IST Monday, May 2, with the news that the head of Al Qaeda, the most wanted terrorist in the world and author of the 9/ll attack on America, is dead. The US is in possession of his body.  There are no further details about the circumstances of his death. President Obama is to make a statement from the White House shortly.

US President Barack Obama is building an alliance with Turkish premier Tayyip Erdogan to spearhead Washington's evolving Iranian and Middle East policies. Turkey, NATO's only Muslim member, is slated to replace Egypt as America's senior Middle East Muslim partner. The two leaders share the conviction that together they can come up ...

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rejected the accord initialed by the two Palestinian rivals Fatah and Hamas in Cairo April 27 before the ink had dried. "You can't have peace both with Israel and Hamas," he warned the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, although at least three previous pacts vanished without a trace. He was not alone in being caught napping by the fast work in Cairo; so too were Washington and Ankara, although both are running Palestinian back channels.

For the first time in the anti-Assad uprising, elements of Syria's popular protest movement are turning to armed revolt on lines similar to those marking the Libyan conflict, after discovering the regime's military crackdown is masterminded by Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers. Wednesday, April 27, armed civilians were seen for the first time, some carrying anti-tank weapons, in the Daraa district of the South and Banias and Jableh on the coast.  Washington is preparing new sanctions against Damascus.

After giving up on US and Israel ever confronting Iran, Saudi Arabia has struck out against the Obama administration for a Gulf campaign to cut down the Islamic Republic's drive for a nuclear bomb and its expansionist meddling in Arab countries, debkafile's sources report. King Abdullah is confident that combined Gulf missile, air force and naval strength are capable of striking deep inside Iran. Its nuclear program is seen in Riyadh as gaining momentum after recovering from a cyber war. 

Two months after Muammar Qaddafi's vow "to purge Libya, inch by inch, house by house, zenga by zenga," he is closer to making good on his boast than even he imagined.  With the US out of the military picture, NATO allies are short of warplanes for stopping Qaddafi's progress and are divided over their mission goal. At odds on how to go forward, they are dropping by the wayside as Qaddafi gains zenga after zenga in Misratah and Ajdabiyeh.

Two US high-ranking emissaries in six days to Riyadh have not bridged the differences between Obama and Abdullah. While attaching supreme importance to relations with Washington, Abdullah insists on continuing on his independent policy path and arms purchases from multiple sources.

The Libyan war has reached a stalemate. Only two NATO members, France and Britain are left willing to carry on fighting for the rebels. Both are racing each other to be the first to quit.

In an unexpected turn in the month-long popular revolt against Bashar Assad's rule, Syrian TV alleged Thursday night, April 14 that the man behind the uprisings is an American whom they promised to parade soon. No more information was offered about the man's identity or how or when he was apprehended. debkafile: This is yet another sign of the depth of the authorities' desperation after failing by the most brutal methods to suppress the anti-Assad marches. 

Damascus was alive with rumors Thursday, April 14 that President Bashar Assad and his family were preparing to flee to Saudi Arabia. They were, sparked by the discovery that several high-ranking Syrian officials and army officers were evacuating their families to Persian Gulf emirates. US officials also disclosed Iran was secretly helping Assad crack down on his own people. Syrian authorities and opposition are bracing for their next test of strength Friday, April 15, amid signs of panic in Assad regime.

Saudi-US disagreements have solidified for the first time in King Abdullah's decision to put their policy arguments behind him and go for action independent of the US. His first move was to freeze his $60 billion arms purchases from America. His second: to encourage the Yemeni ruler to defy Washington. The blow to American pockets as well as prestige is disastrous: For decades, Saudi Arabia has been the top buyer of American military hardware 

While no one admits this, the military campaign to topple Muammar Qaddafi has stalled with no solution other than diplomacy. The first peace proposal has come from the coalition's target, Qaddafi himself.

Obama is seen in the Middle East and North Africa as quitting in the middle of popular turmoil in one Arab country after another leaving a trail of instability.

The London conference ended Tuesday, March 29 divided between the US and Britain in favor of arming the Libyan rebels and France and Italy against. Control passed to a “contact group” with the vague brief to map out Libya’s future. The Libyan conflict was thus relegated to the same uncertain fate as the other Arab uprisings, whose outcomes are unknowable. debkafile nevertheless discerns half a dozen fixed points, not all of them favorable, in the fog of uncertainty:

In his Libya address to Americans Tuesday, March 29, President Barack Obama failed to resolve inner contradictions in his strategy for US involvement in the Western campaign against Muammar Qaddafi:
“The United States would work with its allies to hasten the day when Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi leaves power, but would not use force to topple him." The US would “help the opposition” but play only a supporting role. In fact, the United States is sliding deeper into a third war in a Muslim country.

In response to coalition air strikes, Qaddafi has adopted the tactic of embedding his forces within key rebel-held cities transforming his opponents into human shields for his army.

Four days after the Western-Arab coalition decided Saturday, March 19 to enforce a no fly zone over Libya, only six Western warplanes - American, British, Canadian and French - are in the sky at any one time, debkafile's military sources disclose. This is barely enough for a no-fly zone just over Benghazi. And so the anti-Qaddafi operation has run out of steam, slowed also by the falling-out between Washington, London and Paris over its nature and goals and the fading away of the Arab component.

debkafile's sources report the claim that Libya's integrated air defense systems were knocked out by Saturday's US-UK-French bombardment was overstated. Muammar Qaddafi had removed his sophisticated hardware - Russian-made SA-5 missiles which can hit medium or high-flying aircraft and his shoulder-launched K38 Igla9 (SA-18) missiles mounted on Italian Ivaco trucks - to hideouts in the south.
The Western-Arab coalition is split over Qaddafi's removal as endgame, while Arab League Secretary Amr Mussa has already criticized the air strikes.

Twenty French fighter jets destroyed a number of tanks in Benghazi Saturday, March 19, in the first shots of the Western-Arab operation authorized by the UN Security Council 1973 against Muammar Qaddafi, soon joined by British jet fighters. After the US stated it would not take part in the first action or send troops, a US submarine and UK warships fired 112 Tomahawk missiles at 20 Libyan targets east of Tripoli, among them the Libyan army's supreme command center.

US President Barack Obama Friday, March 18, laid down an ultimatum for Muammar Qaddafi to comply with or else face "military consequences," the key condition being the withdrawal of Libyan troops from three towns including Ajdabiya – tantamount to lifting the siege on Benghazi.  He set no deadline for those withdrawals nor did he demand that the towns in question revert to rebel control or Qaddafi's departure. European and Arab planes expected to start enforcing the no-fly zone over Libya in the next day or two.