The Saudi-led GCC forces in Bahrain to support the king face the onset of a Shiite guerrilla war organized by Hizballah on Iran's behalf. They all understand that this war will spread further.

Washington has excellent relations with the Egyptian military rulers but their control of the country is extremely limited. The soldiers would rather desert than obey orders. The police are off the streets and the civilian government goes its own way.

What led the Saudi-led GCC army units to jump unhesitatingly into Bahrain while the US and Europe dithered over Libya? Tehran won't take this lying down. In its latest issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly outlines the potential military showdown between Iran and Saudi Arabia, explores US-Israeli intelligence blindness on Egypt, and reveals how the Libyan conflict is enriching both sides - Muammar Qaddafi and his opponents – as well as global arms traffickers.
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King Abdullah warns his princes and fellow-Arab rulers not to rely on the United States to rescue them from domestic unrest or any other threats. He blames Washington for failure to quell Bahrain troubles.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's next issue out Friday has a wealth of revelations on the undercover wars waged by the US and Britain in their separate interests on both sides of the Libyan uprising. They are not alone. The US is setting military-intelligence infrastructure in place for military intervention – notwithstanding the ongoing debate in Washington; Muammar Qaddafi is drawing greater empowerment from the revolt; and Al Qaeda, too, has chosen its role in the upheaval.

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Obama is at odds with his two top officials on the Arab revolt, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Gates opposes president's drive for military action to unseat Qaddafi. Clinton opposes the president's pro-Iran drive.

Middle East intelligence chiefs believe the Libyan uprising exposed for the first time the cogs of the machinery manipulated by its wire-pullers to foment unrest. This revelation will color America's reputation in the region for many years to come.

Barring changes in the military situation, Muammar Qaddafi looked Wednesday, March 2, like averting the immediate danger of his regime's collapse by dint of a successful counter-offensive against rebel forces. During the day, his armored forces and commandos supported by the Libyan Air Force recaptured parts of Brega, Libya's refinery city, and sections of the Bay of Sirte town of Ajdabiya. In Washington, the Pentagon poured cold water on the prospects of military intervention.

The White House strongly condemned Iran's "intimidation campaign and blatant violation of its citizens' universal rights," Sunday night, Feb. 28 after a human-rights group said two opposition figures had been taken to an unknown location. They were too late: debkafile's sources reveal that the two prominent opposition leaders, Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, were secretly hauled out of their homes in sacks Thursday, Feb. 24 and taken to the infamous Parchin prison in Tehran. Their wives have also disappeared.

Failing European will or capability for military action to halt Libya's civil war and remove Muammar Qaddafi, Washington has approached Egypt to undertake a limited operation. Hesitant at first, the military rulers saw the perils continuing Libyan unrest posed Egypt.

King Abdullah returned home with a sackful of economic benefits but not enough political reforms to avert the Day of Anger called for March 13. Gunning for the royal house are the young and jobless and the oppressed Shiites.

Qaddafi has no fear of sanctions. His vast assets are mostly deposited safely in Libyan banks which he controls and he is heavily staked in European industry, banking, media and weapons industries.

Muammar Qaddafi succeeded Wednesday, Feb. 23, in clearing the streets of Tripoli and southern and western Libya of demonstrations against his rule – partly by threats and partly thanks to American and European failure to put up a military or diplomatic strategy for cutting him down. For now, he has firmed up his control in those areas.

The US State Department was "looking at" possible sanctions against the Qaddafi regime, but there were no specifics.

In their first week in power, Egypt's new military rulers took two steps that had nothing to do with democratic reform. They allowed Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the radical Sunni preacher exiled by Hosni Mubarak ,to return home and lead a victory assembly in Tahrir Square Friday night, Feb. 17 with a call to march on Al Aqsa in Jerusalem. From Qatar, al-Qaradawi repeatedly justified suicide bombings against Israelis. The second was permission for two Iranian war ships to transit the Suez Canal.

The 25 generals who assumed power in Egypt last Friday have informed Washington that the transition to democratic elections and government would take at least a year or two. They also challenged the Obama administrations' plan to bring the Muslim Brotherhood into government as a prescription for civil war.

The heads of Egypt's military were almost as reluctant to step into power as Mubarak was to leave. The names of four generals are tentatively mentioned as Egypt's next ruler – but the junta would pull his strings.

The US and Israel made the same mistake of using Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman as their single line of information on Egypt - and were caught napping. They are still woefully wanting on Egyptian political and military intelligence.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly in its latest issue out last Friday offered a blow-by-blow account of the "democratic revolution" which brought Egypt's generals to power, what they are really telling the Obama administration and the candidates they are weighing for next ruler in Cairo.

 Read unpublished details about Mubarak's fall and find out what other Arab rulers have learned from it.

Get some insights into where Washington is going next in relation to the Arab world and Israel.

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Israel's new chief of staff Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz is saddled with might task of rebuilding Israel's armed forces from scratch to fit the potential menace posed by the upheaval in Egypt. Ashkenazi worked closely with Washington to attune combined US-Israel military resources to possible combat with Iran.

Who moves into the presidential palace when (date unknown) Hosni Mubarak leaves? Washington's preferred candidate is not Omar Suleiman. DEBKA-Net-Weekly, in its coming issue Friday, surveys the field, none of which offers guarantees against violent upsets down the road. Is there a deal between the regime and the army? Maybe the incumbents are settling in to stay, sparing a few crumbs to keep the opposition quiescent.  Are there any other options?

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