DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 14, 2015
The scandals and slurs his rivals floated against the Netanyahu couple ahead of March 17 voting-day have become boomerangs. Likud is lengthening its lead in the polls, as once determined non-voters rally around the victims. The early opposition slogan: “Just not him,” made way this week for: “It’s either Likud or them” - after the prime minister successfully harnessed the social media to reach new voters. His rivals’ bid for the premiership is now a scramble for top posts in Netanyahu’s next government. Still, 30 days of hard campaign are still ahead.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis January 3, 2015
Opinion polls conducted by party strategists have persuaded Likud leader Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (23-24 seats predicted) and opposition leader, Yitzhak Herzog of Labor (estimated 20-22), to discuss sharing government after the March 17 election. This is reported by debkafile. It would push the small parties to the fringes and eliminate their bargaining power. A too-close-to call outcome of the vote could result in Netanyahu and Herzog agreeing to rotate the premiership. Their mutually trusted back-door go-between is revealed here as the Labor leader’s brother, Mike Herzog.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 29, 2014
Electioneering for Israel’s March 17 general poll is fairly lackluster while exhausting the voter's patience with drummed up scandals. On traditional issues, no party leader can promise to alter the Obama administration’s views on Jerusalem, or break down Palestinian Authority resistance to a negotiated peace. Opposition efforts to prioritize social disparities in place of security concerns, or the Palestinian issue fall flat, whereas the chronic faultfinding over soured relations with Washington has faded since President Obama hitched his Mid East policy to the Iranian cart.
Which slogan will carry Israel’s election? Pledges of affordable housing or security against terror?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 12, 2014
Five major blocs are emerging at the outset of Israel’s election campaign: right, left, center, religious and Arab. Yitzhak Herzog of Labor promises to form the next government after hitching up with former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni of Hatnuah. But private party polls place the couple only third or fourth in the coming election. The only fresh face in the race is Moshe Kahlan, late of Likud, who this week established his Kulanu (All of Us) party. The ultra-religious Shas is about to split with Ellie Yishay quitting to form a new religious party.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 22, 2014
With presidential elections at the end of the month, Ukraine’s oligarchs are likely to agree to an unofficial split of territory in the central and western parts of the country, leaving Russian influence in the east and Crimea intact.
As Egypt’s president, El-Sisi shoulders huge security challenges: Muslim Brothers, Sinai terror, Gaza, water
DEBKAfile Special Report January 27, 2014
Egypt’s Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi Monday, Jan. 27, promoted himself to field marshal and resigned as defense minister, preparatory to his run for the presidency in a still unscheduled vote before parliamentary elections. DEBKA Weekly 620 of Jan. 24 reported: The new constitution substantially reduces presidential powers by removing the army from executive jurisdiction. However, El-Sisi decided to go for the job because the head of state's standing and respect are unmatched at home or in foreign relations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 2, 2013
Egypt’s Defense Minister Gen. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi will run for president – possibly before the end of the year, debkafile reports exclusively. He plans to launch a short election campaign on August 15. Untroubled by US and European criticism, the general is restoring the Egyptian army to political center. And like former presidents Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, he will repress the Muslim Brotherhood. Washington’s answer is the appointment as ambassador to Cairo of former envoy to Damascus Robert Ford, who excelled in building ties with the Syrian opposition.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 13, 2013
Ayatollah Khamenei has failed to manipulate Iran’s forthcoming presidential election and determine the winner. Will he try and rig the election?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 16, 2013
Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalilee is the supreme leader’s favorite for president in the June 14 election, appreciating his hard line on Iran’s nuclear program – except that he is short of administrative experience for rescuing a collapsing economy.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 3, 2013
President Ahmadinejad is smearing his enemies while under persecution himself for insisting on pushing his own candidate for president in the June 24 election and bringing the economy to the brink of disaster.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 23, 2013
The White House was unmoved by the IAEA finding that Iran had installed 180 advanced centrifuges at Natanz to speed enrichment and commented Thursday, Feb. 21 that “a diplomatic solution is still possible” for Iran’s nuclear program. debkafile: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is calling in a debt from the US president: He respected Barack’s Obama’s campaign for reelection and gave up Iran’s “October surprise. Now he expects the US president not to upset his push to get his handpicked choice elected as Iran’s next president.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 22, 2013
Khamenei has cut short the brawl between Ahmadinejad and Speaker Larijani in the run-up to the June presidential election, by picking a bland, unassuming professor as his favorite candidate for next president.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 26, 2012
While running for reelection, Barack Obama said an Iranian “breakout capacity” must be averted because it meant Tehran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon before US or Israeli intelligence caught on and had time to intervene. debkafile: Iran is widely presumed to have passed this stage already, and so “breakout capacity” is just another red line to be blown away by Tehran. The talk of 2013 being a critical year for preempting Iran’s nuclear capacity is nothing but election spin.
DEBKAfile Special Report October 26, 2012
Israel’s political parties are on the move and eyeing new alliances in the wake of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s surprise announcement of a merger between his Likud and Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beitenu ahead of the general election in January. Netanyahu is eying the brand new Future party headed by ex-journalist Yair Lapid as a third prospective partner in his post-election cabinet. Labor under its new leader Shelly Yachimovich is resurgent and on the lookout for satellites. But the new Likud Beitunu list is still front-runner.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 15, 2012
Ten days after Hizballah launched an Iranian stealth UAV into Israeli air space undetected, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu unveiled his new security doctrine in a Knesset speech confirming elections on Jan. 22, 2013. He said that his light but firm finger on the trigger had given Israel seven years without war.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 11, 2012
Netanyahu was in touch with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney before his UN speech last month and reached agreement with both that he would set up a centrist government with Labor after Israel’s January election and join them n getting set for a showdown with Iran in March.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis June 18, 2012
Islamist candidate Muhammad Mursi did not wait for the ballots to be counted before proclaiming himself President of Egypt. Shafiq’s protest that final results were not in was drowned out by street celebrations preparing the masses to confirm the Brotherhood win. The Netanyahu government did not oppose Obama’s policy of bringing Muslims to power through the ballot box and now faces Moslem adversaries from a strategic pit. To recover its deterrent effectiveness, Israel must dismantle Iran’s nuclear program by force.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 8, 2012
The Brotherhood's Islamist militias, which first put in an appearance in Egypt's presidential election campaign last month to disrupt Ahmed Shafiq's rallies, quickly took on a national character. They then formed into hierarchical structures on the lines of the paramilitary militias which surfaced in the early years of Iran’s Shiite revolution in the early 1980s and evolved into Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012
The Muslim Brotherhood lost substantial ground between Egypt’s general and presidential elections round one. The emergence of the two frontrunners, the Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi and former PM Ahmed Shafiq, has cast the original revolutionaries and pro-democracy elements onto the sidelines.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012
Results of the final round of the presidential vote in Egypt depends on two things: The candidates’ ability to organize their campaigns and funding from the Arab world and American sources.