DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 22, 2015
The US and Iran are in a last-ditch effort to rescue their nuclear diplomacy before it falls into deep crisis. Some observers say the talks are beyond saving. The Obama administration may have hit the limit of its concessions; and Iran won’t give way on centrifuges and enriched uranium stocks. debkafile finds the US, Iran and Israel in a three-way race, each aiming for a different finishing line. Washington wants a nuclear deal in the bag by March 31; Tehran aims for June; while Binyamin Netanyahu nixes the existing US-Iranian draft.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 8, 2014
The US delegation to the bilateral talks with Iranian officials taking place in Geneva on June 9-10 has been directed by the White House not to leave empty-handed. Bill Burns and Jake Sullivan, the lead negotiators, were told to give Iran enough incentives to accept an “improved interim accord.” This would help the administration cover up the impasse reached by the P5+1 negotiations, with no chance of a nuclear accord by the July deadline – or even by the extended timeline of Jan. 15, 2015 (as first revealed by debkafile on May 24.)
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 8, 2014
Revolutionary Guards undermining Iran nuclear talks politically, and will take steps to remove Rouhani and Khamenei if Iran looks set to lose nuclear bomb.
Salehi’s Arak “deal” – cover-up for 1,300 kg enriched uranium smuggled to Parchin for secret upgrade
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 20, 2014
Iran’s Ali Akbar Salehi’s offer Saturday, April 19, “to redesign” the controversial Arak reactor to produce one-fifth of the plutonium initially planned was a piece of misdirection. debkafile reveals that Tehran has secretly smuggled 1,300 kilos of low-grade uranium to Parchin, the military facility barred to inspectors, and installed there 1,630 banned advanced centrifuges for their rapid upgrade in secret to 20 percent enrichment. The IAEA was deceived into reporting that Iran had left itself with “substantially less of the 20-percent enriched uranium needed for a nuclear warhead.”
DEBKAfile Special Report April 8, 2014
Iran and the six world powers Tuesday, April 8, kicked off negotiations in Vienna for a final and comprehensive nuclear accord. debkafile reports that in its haste to start drafting the document by mid-May, the Obama administration is ignoring the military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. A senior Israeli security official remarked: “The Americans are ready to take Tehran’s assurance that its program is purely peaceful at face value.” The initial US-Iranian argument over the quantity of low-grade enriched uranium permissible is irrelevant given the fissile material concealed in Tehran’s weapons program.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 4, 2014
As the Six Power group and Iran prepared for their third round of nuclear talks in Vienna next week (Tuesday-Wednesday, April 8-9), Tehran frankly admitted to exploiting the holes in the six-month interim deal they forged in Geneva last November by using advanced centrifuges and carrying on with the Arak project. This will be Moscow’s first opportunity to make good on its threat to confront the West and line up with Iran, in retaliation for Western penalties for its annexation of Crimea. Moscow and Tehran are close to a mammoth oil-for-food barter deal.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 18, 2014
The six powers and Iran sat down in Geneva Tuesday, Feb. 18 for talks on a final, comprehensive resolution of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. But first, the Obama administration gave the Israeli government three pledges. debkafile: The US would insist on the shutdown of the Fordo enrichment plant; the Arak reactor’s conversion to a light water plant; and a cap on 5-percent enrichment. They all face Tehran's certain rejection. Binyamin Netanyahu can only try for a ceiling on centrifuges when he meets Barack Obama on March 3.
Khamenei Divorces Rev Guards from Nuclear Negotiations, Awards Them Control of Mid East Trouble Spots
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 13, 2014
Khamenei has pushed the Rev Guards out of nuclear diplomacy and compensated them by leaving their financial empire untouched and giving them control of Iran influence in Mid East trouble spots.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 9, 2014
Tehran is openly installing fast IR-2m centrifuges designed to speed uranium enrichment, and preparing even faster machines, claiming they were covered by the US-led five power recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment under the November, 2013 Geneva pact. debkafile: A follow-up meeting takes place Thursday, Nov. 9, in the face of the Iranian lawmaker Muhammad Nabavian’s revelation that Tehran can produce a bomb within two weeks - and a complete nuclear arsenal with the help of the new centrifuges. He named Israel as its target.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 18, 2013
The European Union and Iran announced Wednesday that the talks on the technical aspects of the interim nuclear accord with the six powers - broken off in Vienna Friday Dec. 13 - would be resumed in Geneva Thursday, Dec. 19. debkafile: This is a desperate attempt to enliven the dying momentum of nuclear diplomacy. The meeting is is being convened to camouflage the fact that the Geneva accord is on the brink of collapse. Iran now denies any pact was signed, saying "it was only a statement of intent.”
Nuclear deal may sink in Geneva between hardline pressures in Tehran and tough Franco-Israel demands
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2013
Washington and Moscow may sound upbeat about the prospects of a signed interim deal at the next round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six powers in Geneva Wednesday, Nov. 20. However, according to debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources, the way ahead is still bristling with mines, more so even than the first round. Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif fear retribution at home for yielding, while France and Israel toughen demands. Binyamin Netanyahu reiterates that a “bad deal” won’t bind Israel and brandishes Israel’s military option.
Braced for imminent nuclear accord with Iran, US pulls away from military option, IDF stays on the ready
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 31, 2013
Israel’s high command, assuming that an American-Iranian nuclear accord is near its final stage, plans to continue preparations for a unilateral military strike on Iran’s nuclear program into 2014 – hence the IDF’s request for a supplemental NIS3.5bn (app. $1bn) defense budget this week. debkafile: The main body of the accord is complete. All the same, President Barack Obama plans to announce before Christmas that only partial agreement has been achieved and negotiations will continue - to avoid coming clean on the full scope of the deal with Tehran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 28, 2013
Spy services have been mystified by the unusual three-week absence from public view of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Various theories claimed he was ill or in seclusion to escape the furor in Tehran over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and relations with the United States. debkafile: Khamenei stayed home to work on the draft US-Iranian-Russian deal for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. The accord is now in the bag. This secret will be revealed in stages - first by President Barack Obama, in the third week of December.
DEBKAfile Special Report October 16, 2013
Two days of talks in Geneva between Iran, the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany ended Wednesday, Oct. 16, with little but a decision, reported by Tehran, to reconvene in the coming weeks for another attempt to break the standoff on Iran’s nuclear program. debkafile: In general, Iran appears to be willing to partially scale back uranium enrichment for immediate sanctions relief. The Western delegations were not convinced that more than partial Iranian concessions were on offer, without being defined in concrete detail.
Iran dictates Khamenei’s “fatwa” as basis for nuclear negotiations. US fails to update Israel on Geneva talks
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 15, 2013
The Iranian negotiators arrived in Geneva Tuesday, Oct. 15, armed with inflexible positions for the talks with the six powers in Geneva on their country’s nuclear program. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted on the (P5+1) powers accepting the Supreme Leader’s 2006 fatwa banning the development of nuclear weapons – an edict devoid of religious value. debkafile: This ploy was meant to make the powers accept Khamenei’s standing as a world leader. The Obama administration had not yet relayed a word to Binyamin Netanyahu from Geneva.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 7, 2013
Iran’s Ali Khamenei closed the door on the direct nuclear talks offered by Vice President Joe Biden, arguing, Thursday, Feb. 7, that they “would solve nothing” because, "You are holding a gun against Iran.” debkafile: He was reacting both to the new sanctions the US imposed Wednesday and to President Barack Obama’s forthcoming visit to Israel to confer with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Iran and Syria. The US has cancelled the departure of a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf due to budget cutbacks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 14, 2012
Moscow has answered the US Patriots in Turkey with the top-line Eskandar missiles for Syria for which the West has no answer. This compounded the bad news coming from Pyongyang of North Korea’s first successful long-range three-stage missile test. To neither does Obama seem to have an answer.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 3, 2012
The US is piling up military strength in the Persian Gulf against potential Iranian attempts to block the Gulf of Hormuz, or otherwise retaliate for the European oil embargo in force since July 1. As the Revolutionary Guards staged a missile exercise against “enemy air bases,” more than 40,000 US troops were massed on two strategic islands facing Iran. The drums of war came with curtains on nuclear diplomacy. Iran and six world powers met for the last time in Istanbul Tuesday. Oil topped $100 for the first time in three weeks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2012
Tehran can afford to brush off diplomatic efforts to rein in its nuclear program for two reasons: 1) It is so far advanced that unless stopped, Iran will by December have enough enriched uranium for seven or eight nuclear bombs as well as complete dirty bombs, and 2) It has lost its fear of military attack.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 19, 2012
Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have decided to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test, debkafile’s sources report. They are going along with it despite reservations after receiving assurances from the White House that Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran. Saturday, debkafile exclusively revealed the eight-point interim deal the US put before Iran.