No one is listening to Ali Khamenei when he says there will be no substantial nuclear negotiations until sanctions are lifted on oil revenues and banks. Iran is furnishing the Assad regime with $1 bn per month in aid despite sanctions.

The Iranian government Wednesday, Oct. 3, invoked the emergency measures drawn up for the 2009 protests to deploy large Bassij militia forces in the capital and put down the first angry protests against mounting economic hardship and the plummeting rial.  Money changers and gold merchants attacked police, torched their cars and threatened a general shutdown of trading and the Bazaar. The government decided to draw the line in Tehran before the anti-government unrest spreads further.

Iran has found a big hole in the Western sanctions regimen, Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, which channels to Iran all the goods denied the Islamic Republic under sanction.

Tehran is sticking to its guns and racing forward toward a nuclear weapon in the face of extreme economic hardship. As Ahmadinejad falls out of favor, former president Rafsanjani begins a comeback.

Iran is now going for the nuclear jackpot of weapons-grade enriched uranium after tricking the West into accept its phased advance from 3.5 percent to 20 percent and now 80-90 percent enrichment.

 US President Barack Obama has again persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to hold off attacking Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months by promising a new set of tough sanctions against Iran. US administration officials assured debkafile’s Washington sources that Israel’s leaders, were won over once more – this time by the Obama administration’s promise to impose an air and sea blockade on Iran, failing progress at the Moscow nuclear talks. Tehran may hit back by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Why did Netanyahu and Barak agree to subscribe to Obama’s latest game plan for Iran and again delay a strike on its nuclear facilities? They were promised that harsher sanctions would be imposed against Iran, even in the course of negotiations.

Delaying an attack on Iran as Barak Obama wants means that Iran will continue to enrich uranium at will. It is already achieving its second goal or diminished sanctions thanks to the concessions offered by the US president.

President Barack Obama's proposals are primed to pre-empt war as his first priority before even pre-empting a nuclear Iran. The deal he is offering Tehran will be hard to refuse because it virtually relieves its nuclear program of effective international oversight. Tehran is nonetheless holding out for an end to sanctions.

Israel is fed up with being kept in the dark, doesn’t trust American diplomatic maneuvers to stop a nuclear Iran and is getting ready to make its own decisions after the May 23 Baghdad talks between the P5-1 and Iran. That is the message coming from Binyamin ...

Russian-Iranian solidarity was dented this week by Tehran’s games to stall the nuclear talks scheduled for mid-April. Moscow wants diplomacy started without delay because Middle East tensions are close to boiling point. Iran vetoes Istanbul as the venue and refuses to talk under military or financial pressure.

The Obama administration is satisfied enough with the progress made in its secret dialogue with Ayatollah Khamenei that it has begun winding sanctions down, starting with exemptions to 11 nations from the oil embargo on Iran.

Riyadh sees Iran counting its profits from sanctions-boosted oil prices regardless of extra Saudi pumping. Washington blocked the sale of arms for a Saudi strike against Iran and shut the Jordanian route for Saudi troops to enter Syria. The two Kings Abdullah are at odds.

China and Pakistan are profiting hugely from sanctions-busting financial services to Iran, while Russia, India and Turkey also help cushion Tehran against the depredations of sanctions.

Ali Falahian, Iran’s senior spokesman on sanctions, said Sunday, March 18: “I suggest that the West take seriously our threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.” This was Tehran’s first response to the SWIFT decision to sever ties with Iranian banks.
Four US and French nuclear aircraft carriers and a dozen or more minesweepers stand by on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17 percent of the world’s daily oil supply passes, and Israeli naval vessels are deployed in the Red Sea.

Obama plans to confront Iran with seven conditions for keeping nuclear negotiations with the big powers going – from the word go. One is to sign NPT protocols authorizing spot IAEA inspections of suspicious site. Since no one expects Tehran comply, the military option will soon be back on ...

The Saudis are building up their defenses in the Eastern oil provinces, calculating that Iran is already losing customers for its oil, cutting its exports by 15-20 percent and bringing Tehran closer than ever to striking the kingdom's oil industry and exports.

The new round of European sanctions will not stop Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned in a radio interview Tuesday, Jan. 24.  debkafile: The Obama administration and EU delayed oil sanctions to July 1 for back-channel contacts to ripen and produce a fresh round of nuclear talks with Tehran. Barak stressed Israel's hand was always near the trigger and advised taking "very seriously" Israel's military option which had not been taken off the table.

India is the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to pay for its purchases in gold instead of the US dollar, debkafile reports exclusively.  Our sources expect China to follow suit. India and China take about one million barrels per day, or 40 percent of Iran's total exports of 2.5 million bpd. Both will therefore substantially cushion the impact on the Iranian economy of the European decision of Monday, Jan. 22, to impose an oil embargo on Iran and freeze the assets of its central bank.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised visiting Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey Friday, Jan. 20 that the time for action against Iran was now - for two reasons: First, Iran has passed the point of no return for developing a nuclear weapon; second, the US-led embargo on Iranian oil is not catching on. debkafile: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey and the European Union members which buy 85 percent of Iran's exported crude are dilly-dallying over a ban.