During the half hour they talked at the Gaylord Hotel in National Harbor, Maryland, last Friday, Dec. 16, US President Barack Obama received from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak the latest intelligence on Iran's nuclear weapons program. Barak disclosed that Iran has started work on the assembly of a nuclear weapon and advanced surreptitiously on a program for developing a plutonium nuclear weapon.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources report that President Obama did not fall off his chair because it confirmed the data reaching him in the last week of November. For further evidence, the RQ-170 reconnaissance drone was assigned its first flight over Iran - only to be downed on Dec. 4 by means yet to be fully clarified.
Since then, the US and Israel have resorted to alternative resources to determine whether Iran has indeed started building components for a nuclear bomb or warhead.
Then, on Tuesday, Dec. 20, Dennis Ross, until a month ago President Obama's senior adviser on the Middle East including Iran, noted that Israel had reason to be concerned about enrichment at Qom (a reference to the Fordo underground site near that religious city). He cited Iran's accumulation of low-enriched uranium, its decision to enrich to nearly 20 percent "when there is no justification for it," its hardening of nuclear sites, and other "activities related to possible weaponization" – all factors that "affect the Israeli calculus and ours," said Ross.
"Qom is important, but it is worth remembering that IAEA inspectors go there, and I would not isolate Qom and say this alone is the Israeli red-line to spur a military response.

Iran embarks on nuclear weaponization

Ross's reference to "weaponization" activities and other sites beside Qom as an Israel red line spurring a military response are firm indications that the White House knows for sure that Iran has embarked on the assembly of a nuclear weapon and that Fordo is not its only clandestine weapon development site.
Using this information, Israel calculated that Iran had drastically reduced its timeline for building a nuclear weapon from two years to six months. If Iran's rulers so decided, Iran could have an operational weapon ready to go by early June or July 2012.
Barak did not ask the US President how he intended acting on the new intelligence because the way Obama uses the Iranian nuclear issue for his re-election campaign is outside Israel's ken; the US president, for his part, did not inquire whether an Israeli strike against Iran was any nearer. He left the two questions open, commenting only that the situation was extremely serious.
So Israel's leaders don't know for sure if Obama is planning to strike Iran – either to keep a nuclear weapon out of the Islamic Republic's hands or to save his campaign for a second term as president from being trapped in a morass of manipulative Iranian tricks.
As Israel reads the situation in Tehran, Iran's leaders have gained enormous confidence from their capture of the US reconnaissance drone. They appear to believe that laying hands on American stealth technology arms them for repelling a US attack, or at least reducing to a minimum the amount of damage it would cause.
After talking to the Israeli defense minister, Obama said: “The cooperation between our militaries has never been stronger.”
Barak commented, “Both countries agree that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable.”

US and Israel in sync on military action

The US president's reply to Barak came three days after they met, Monday, Dec. 19, when US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta informed CBS interviewer Scott Pelley that Iran had reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year - or potentially less.
Pelley: So are you saying that Iran can have a nuclear weapon in 2012?
Panetta: “It would probably be about a year before they can do it. Perhaps a little less. But one proviso, Scott, is if they have a hidden facility somewhere in Iran that may be enriching fuel…
Pelley: So that they can develop a weapon even more quickly.
Panetta: On a faster track…
Pelley: Than we believe.
Panetta: That’s correct.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals that this "hidden facility somewhere in Iran” was a reference by Panetta to the new intelligence data Barak had put before President Obama.
It is reasonable to assume therefore that, under the impact of this interchange, the US president authorized his defense secretary to enunciate the reversal the administration has effected in its position on a possible US attack on Iran's nuclear program – although it may not be the last such change.
Panetta accordingly dropped his former warnings of the grave consequences of an attack for US interests and the global economy and said suddenly: ‘Well, we share the same common concern. The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us and that’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will deal with it.”

Panetta's bombshell dismays Washington opponents of military strike

In other words, the "red line" for America, defined in his Brookings Institute speech of Dec. 2, has moved from free trade through Persian Gulf waters to the same groove as Israel's, namely, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran per se.
Panetta's new stance landed on Washington with bombshell force. Our Washington sources report dismay in senior US intelligence circles including CIA director David Petraeus, and in the military and defense lobby which actively opposes a US or Israel attack on Iran's nuclear program.
Pentagon officials asserted that the Defense Secretary's prediction of an Iranian nuclear bomb within a year was based on "a highly aggressive timeline" and actions which Iran has not yet taken. There was no cause to revise the timeline, they insisted: It still stood at two or three years from now.
George Little, the Pentagon press secretary, stressed the Defense Secretary had stated clearly that there was no sign Iran had made the decision to go ahead on a nuke.
Mr. Little said, “He was asked to comment on prospective and aggressive timelines on Iran’s possible production of nuclear weapons – and he said if, and only if, they made such a decision. He didn’t say that Iran would, in fact, have a nuclear weapon in 2012.”
The Pentagon official went on to argue that the International Atomic Energy Agency-IAEA was still in Iran and its inspectors had “good access to Iran’s continuing production of low-enriched uranium.”
Should Iran choose to “break out” – divert low-enriched uranium to produce weapons-grade highly enriched uranium – the inspectors could detect it. “We would retain sufficient time under any such scenario to take appropriate action,” he said.

Losing the RQ-170 did not end US intelligence efforts in Iran

According to usual rules governing such dust-ups in Washington, after the Panetta interview sounded the alarm siren, the ensuing play-down of his comments ought to have sounded the all-clear and settled the dust.
But this is not what happened.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources report that someone in the US capital decided not to let the opponents of an attack on Iran win the battle over the revised White House position. So the Pentagon press secretary was not allowed to push Panetta's words back into the old plenty-of-time-yet frame; nor did he get the last word.
From Afghanistan, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs, came forward Wednesday, Dec. 21 to reinforce the Defense Secretary's comments and add a new dimension:
Speaking on CNN, the general issued a warning to Iran.
“My biggest worry is they will miscalculate our resolve,” Dempsey said. “Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world.”
The top US soldier made the first authoritative reference to the loss of the reconnaissance drone downed by Iran earlier this month, after senior Iranian intelligence and military officers claimed that with reverse engineering they had gained the stealth and fighter jet technology for repelling a US attack on their nuclear sites.
Dempsey said the loss of the RQ-170 was not the end of US efforts to figure out what Iran is doing.
"Of course we are gathering intelligence against Iran by a variety of means. It would be rather imprudent of us not to try to understand what a nation who has declared itself to be an adversary of the United States is doing.”

Two senior US visitors arrive to step up cooperation with Israel

This week, Obama took two more steps for tightening military cooperation with Israel. Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force, arrived to finalize plans for the biggest joint missile defense exercise the US and Israel have ever held this spring. Several thousand American soldiers will be deployed in Israel for the exercise.
It will include the establishment of U.S. command posts in Israel and IDF command posts at EUCOM headquarters in Germany - with the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Tuesday, Dec. 20, also saw the arrival of Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s right-hand, together with Robert Einhorn, the State Department special adviser on nonproliferation. The two came to tie up the diplomatic ends of the decisions reached by President Obama and Defense Minister Barak at their meeting in Washington.
Einhorn, the administration's top expert on Iran's nuclear activities, said just before the visit that the situation over Iran's nuclear program was becoming increasingly worrying and an urgent diplomatic solution needed to be found. "Iran is violating international obligations and norms," he said. "It is becoming a pariah state." He added: "The timeline for its nuclear program is beginning to get shorter, so it is important we take these strong steps on an urgent basis." Einhorn did not elaborate on those steps.

The final American military exit from Iraq on Dec. 18, conferred on a belligerent Tehran a strategic gift beyond its wildest dreams: wide open overland corridors to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan, as well as a direct military road link from Tehran to Damascus.
Seizing the moment, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei established a new command for all the special and intelligence units operating outside its borders at about the same time as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki wound up his talks with President Barack Obama on Dec. 14 in Washington.
The unified command is headed by Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al Qods Brigades which is responsible for Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) overseas covert and terrorist operations.
He now has the added task of running the special units charged with buttressing Shiite domination of the Baghdad government and securing direct military routes through Iraq to Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Israel answered Tehran the next day, Dec. 15 when Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz launched a new Israel Defense Forces-IDF command for “depth” missions in distant locations.
The new corps, said the IDF spokesman, would give Israel military operations "strategic depth.” It is headed by Maj. Gen. Shai Avital, a former special operations commander who retired from the armed forces in 2002.
The new corps "could assist in mobilizing special forces in the Iranian nuclear context," said the statement.
Equally important, it will chart and execute operations related to the covert war on al Qaeda and Iran in such places as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and the countries of the Horn of Africa and East Africa.

Saudis tighten Gulf military and financial ranks against Iran

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates reacted with strong words and the closing of ranks.
Monday, Dec. 19, Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz opened the annual Gulf Cooperation Council-GCC meeting in Riyadh warning that its members' security was under threat: "No doubt you all know that our safety and security is targeted and so the Gulf Arab states must close ranks as "a single entity," he said. "We learn from history and experience not to stand still when faced with reality," said the King. "Whoever does that will end up at the back of the caravan trail and be lost. That is why I ask of you today to move beyond the stage of cooperation and into the stage of unity in a single entity," said Abdullah.
With these words, the Saudi king decisively spurned Tehran's bid for an anti-US partnership which Iranian intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi put before Saudi Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz in Riyadh on Dec. 12.
The statement ending the GCC summit Dec. 21 called on Iran to "stop these policies and practices… and stop meddling in the internal affairs of the Gulf nations."
By "single entity," King Abdullah had two steps in mind: Gulf cooperation in developing nuclear weapons and the creation of a unified GCC military command, approved Tuesday, Dec. 20, to orchestrate the preparations for war with Iran.
In fact, only two members have real military muscle to contribute - Saudi Arabia alone has military forces for operations outside the Gulf, while the United Arab Emirates has the only air force with warplanes for the "single entity" command. Therefore, the summit's final resolution boiled down to all members putting their hands in their pockets to stump up the funds for arming the bloc with a nuclear weapon. The inference drawn by our sources is that this effort is well advanced.

Gulf Arabs signify disapproval of the way US exited Iraq

In the wake of the Iranian and Israeli generals, the Saudi king appointed his incoming Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz head of the just-created GCC joint command. Each of the six members will appoint a professional military man as deputy.
With an eye on these developments, the Obama administration dispatched Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, to Riyadh. But the Gulf rulers, including the Saudi defense minister, declined to meet with him. They joined forces to signify their disapproval of the way the US departed Iraq which left Baghdad under Tehran's thumb and show Washington it had no role to play in GCC nuclear and military policies.
Gen. Dempsey had to be content with meeting officials of the Saudi Ministry of Defense officials and National Guard and military officers of Gulf armies.
In his comment on the snub, the US general told reporters traveling with him: “I’ve been very clear with all of our partners – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others – [that] if you’re concerned about the future of Iraq, then we should all work together to help ensure that we achieve a brighter future for Iraq…[If Iraq] is left unattended or left to its own devices,” he said, “then countries that could have helped the newly sovereign nation shouldn’t come back and complain about the outcome.”

Al Maliki begins purge of Sunni politicians

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources report that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners are especially peeved by the discovery - largely from Saudi intelligence agencies - that the Obama administration chose to disregard the Iranian takeover of Baghdad out of US strategic concerns relating to Iran, Syria and Turkey.
They learned that US President refused to take issue with the presence of Hadi al-Ameri, Iraq’s Trade Minister in the Al Maliki entourage he received at the White House last week, although he knew about al-Ameri's notoriously close friendship with Iran's Supreme Leader and the al Qods chief Gen. Soleimani.
Gulf officials complain that US officials were deaf to their contention that the ex-terrorist mastermind's reception in the White House may not mean much to the Americans but was received in the region as a resounding statement capable of releasing Iraq's endemic sectarian demons.
And indeed, Tehran and al-Maliki, exploiting what they saw as American weakness, were already moving forward on their three-pronged scheme for grabbing power in post-war Iraq.
On Dec. 19, just 24 hours day after the last US military convoy rolled out of the country, the Shiite prime minister obtained a warrant for the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi. Signed by five judges, it charged al-Hashemi with offences under Article 4 of the anti-terrorism law and barred him from leaving the country.
The Sunni leader's thereupon fled to the self-governing Kurdish province in northern Iraq.
Maliki demanded his handover or else, he threatened, the Iraqi army would launch an offensive against the Kurdish Peshmerga army.
DEBK-Net-Weekly's sources report that Maliki also saw his chance of a showdown to challenge Kurdish control of the oil city of Kirkuk which the US military presence had kept at bay.

Tehran wields al-Maliki for domination of government, clergy and street

As Tehran and its Iraqi puppets behaved as though they no longer had anything to fear, fifteen deadly bomb explosions ripped through Baghdad Thursday, Dec. 22, killing 67 people and injuring more than 200 – an ominous sign of the sectarian strife – or even partition - awaiting the country if its current regime goes through with its master plan to install Iran as Iraq's hegemon and Shiite Islam as the ruling faith.
One part if this plan is to push Sunni Muslim politicians like Tareq al-Hashemi out of the ruling machinery in Baghdad and segregate them in the western enclave of Al Anbar province far from the corridors of national power.
To implement the second part, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, a high-ranking radical Iranian cleric close to Khamenei, was imported from the Iranian holy city of Qom to the Iraqi shrine town of Najef. By this move, the Iranian clerical hierarchy of Qom assumed control of Iraq's Shiite religious centers and asserted its supremacy over the Shiite world's most important centers of pilgrimage.
The third segment devolved on the pro-Iranian radical Iraqi Shiite cleric and long US antagonist Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia controls Iraq's Shiite masses, just as Hizballah rules the streets of Lebanon.
Our sources report that al Sadr only pretended to seek cooperation with the United States, a deception he dropped after the last American soldier left the country.
Tehran counts on him – like Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon - to keep the lid on people power in the streets of Iraq and avert popular Arab uprisings that could spill over into Iran.
Tehran has therefore moved fast to slot its Shiite pawn Nouri al Maliki unopposed into the top rung of Iraq's ruling political and military systems in Baghdad; put Ayatollah Sharoudi in charge of its religious establishment and deployed Moqtada al Sadr ready to brandish a whip to keep heads down on Iraqi streets.

That Turkish Prime Minister Tayyp Erdogan is seriously ill is gradually trickling through the curtain of secrecy surrounding his condition.
Monday, Dec. 19, for the first time since taking office, he failed to turn up in parliament to deliver a major speech. No explanation was offered for his absence.
However, the next day, the liberal Turkish journalist and commentator Mehmet Al Birand, let the cat out of the bag in his column in Hurriyet:
“Remember how Prime Minister Erdogan used to be castigated by the opposition before he fell ill, and how all his speeches would come under fire; how everyone with a score to settle in the opposition camp, led by hard-line secularists and neo-nationalists, would speak about the prime minister and plot scenarios for his downfall? Then one day news came of his illness. To make matters worse, nerves were stretched even further when it turned out he had undergone surgery. No one could understand what was going on.
"Moreover, the prime ministerial team, once so proficient in managing public relations, committed a huge mistake this time round and divulged no information whatsoever. The curtains came down just as transparency was in dire need, leading to massive public speculation. Rumors began to circulate that the prime minister had fallen severely ill and he was no longer going to be able to work and, after a while, that he was pulling out of politics. Everything (in Turkey) changed after this.”

Turkey's ruling party is beset with a succession struggle

debkafile first broke the story of Erdogan's illness on Dec. 18 from its intelligence sources, reporting on the impact it would have on current and imminent events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, including Iran. Western intelligence sources were quoted as diagnosing him as suffering from rectosigmoid cancer.
They declined to say what stage the disease is at and what medical treatment he was receiving - first at an Istanbul hospital in Istanbul and now at Hacettepe Hospital in Ankara.
Questioned by DEBKA-Net-Weekly this week, high-ranking officials in Ankara refused to confirm or deny this information but stressed, "Erdogan’s condition is not good and we are not talking about a minor event.”
His cancellation of a speech in parliament speaks volumes about his condition, said those officials.
From the domestic perspective, most of the 70 million Turks who have not been informed of their prime minister’s illness are also unaware of the succession battle which has flared in the ruling Justice and Development Party-AKP.
As long as Erdogan was on his feet, he had a deal going with President Abdullah Gul whereby they would emulate the Putin-Medvedev model in Russia and switch roles at the end of their terms, the prime minister moving into the presidential palace and Medvedev taking over as prime minister.
Erdogan's illness has scuttled the deal. The AKP is now ranged between Gul and Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc.
Arinc goofed badly when, during a recent party debate on a bill governing the rules for electing its candidates, he referred to the prime minister's absence. He later apologized, but it was too late.

Obama may lose his prime policy mover in the Middle East

US President Barack Obama is undoubtedly the biggest loser from Erdogan's possible eclipse, having backed him as the prime mover for promoting his Middle East goals.
Obama holds the Turkish premier up as the model for the Muslim Brotherhood to emulate of a pious Muslim ruler who nonetheless follows the West in his policies and espouses Western-style democracy in his country. US sources have characterized their relations as marked by “intimate trust.” They have communicated intensively by phone in recent months.
But now the White House is also deeply concerned about the serious downturn of the Turkish economy. Presented to the world as a modern Islamic success story, Obama is receiving intelligence reports that the Turkish economy is in free fall and approaching the same sort of crisis as Britain, Italy, Greece and Spain.
The economic collapse looming now would bankrupt Ankara and the Turkish banking system.
So not only is Obama's best friend and ally in a bad way, so too is his model Muslim state.
The US president stands therefore at a Middle East crossroads. If Erdogan goes now, it happens at a bad time for US relations in the Arab world with dim prospects for finding a replacement.
The Saudi royal family, for instance, makes no bones about its disenchantment with Obama's policies. The Syrian uprising backed by the US and Turkey in close association is at a delicate point.
President Gul and Turkish generals will most certainly continue Erdogan’s drive to rid Syria of President Bashar Assad, but it is a political truism that a change of leaders inevitably results in changed policies.
The US president also counted on his Turkish ally for help in stabilizing Iraq and the situation of the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. His illness leaves all these US administration policy objectives hanging fire.

The Middle East saw abnormally heavy NATO air traffic this week: Unmarked cargo planes landing in waves at air bases in Turkey were quietly airlifting fighters and weapons for the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army-FSA from Libya.
The fighters are being recruited from the various Libyan militias which fought the Qaddafi regime. About 3,000 have volunteered to fight with anti-Assad forces, accepting the purse offered of $1,000 plus a monthly wage of $450.
Upon landing in Turkey, the Libyan fighters and the arms shipments are trucked by night to FSA bases, most of which are located in the Iskenderun region of Turkey on the border of northwestern Syria
The arms distributed to the rebels are flown in from Tripoli and Benghazi, Libya, as well as Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro. In Libya, arms dealers go around the big arsenals remaining there and buy up weapons on the lists received from Turkey. In East Europe, the arms merchants follow lists received from Western intelligence agents and local military officials.
The estimated size of the Free Syrian Army fluctuates wildly between 5,000 and 15,000 fighting men. The figure is hard to pin down - not least because of the varying rate of defections from the Syrian military.
Of late, the stream of Syrian deserters reaching these camps has swelled from a few dozen a week to several hundred.

The Free Syrian Army doesn't stand a chance without foreign back-up

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence experts, the fact that this renegade army of Syrian army deserters, mercenaries and volunteers, has begun organizing into military frameworks of companies, battalions and brigades, indicates it numbers thousands.
Still, our military sources do not credit reports of thousands of deserters per week. Western intelligence officials believe that no more than 4,000 soldiers have so far gone AWOL.
They receive military training from Western, Turkish and Arab army instructors, as well as civilian security consultants and ex-special forces trainers from the US, Britain, France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar.
Every camp has a Turkish commander whose staff report to the US joint headquarters directing the Syrian Revolt from the Turkish town of Gaziantep, as we reported last week.
Present too at the training facilities are Western intelligence officers, some of them American, who brief FSA units on the various battle sectors before they enter Syria at the end of their training.
Any expectations of this mini-force managing to turn the tide of the war against Assad are dismissed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military experts as unrealistic in view of the inner structure of the Syrian army.
Of the 300,000 men in uniform, 200,000 are career officers and soldiers and loyal to the Assad regime; only 100,000 are conscripts. Mass desertions would only happen if the command echelon broke up or rose up for a coup against the regime. There are no indications that either eventuality is anywhere near.

Russia feeds Assad spy satellite intelligence

Is an invasion of Syria by the small rebel force probable? It is hard to see the FSA managing an orderly military incursion unless it is part of a major Turkish army and air operation carving out a military buffer area and enforcing no fly zones - at least in northern and central Syria.
The cards stacked against the deserter force were further augmented this week: Two Russian spy satellites monitoring military movements in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Israel and Syria began feeding Syrian President Bashar Assad's strategists precise intelligence on FSA units in Turkey and rebel concentrations within Syrian cities, our military sources report.
This new resource enabled the special Syrian armored forces stationed along the Syria-Turkey border to waylay the deserters moving back and forth, capturing some and liquidating many.
The daily death toll of victims gunned down day by day on Syria's borders with Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan may not be counted in hundreds as claimed by Syrian opposition activists and the FSA but certainly amounts to dozens - and is rising. Since the Syrian ruler gained access to reliable Russian intelligence, he no longer seeks to capture deserters for information and has ordered his troops to shoot them on sight where they stand.
The presence of Russian satellites over the eastern Mediterranean also presages the imminent docking at the Syrian port of Tartus of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and its fleet escort.

Assad prepares to fight outside Syrian borders

Assad is now preparing for the Western-Turkish-Arab effort against his regime to move into its next stage: The expansion of attacks on his forces from Turkey and Lebanon amid a major effort to spur the cities of Aleppo and Damascus to join the revolt against him.
To prepare for this, Tuesday, Dec. 20, the Syrian army conducted a large-scale air force, navy, special forces and air defense exercise. They practiced tactics for repelling foreign invasions by land, sea and air.
Units of Air Force fighters, fighter-bombers, fire support helicopters, air defense units and naval warships, took part in the exercise.
An airdrop by Syrian Special Forces was also staged to warn potential invaders that the Syrian ruler had no intention of respecting frontiers and would fight the enemy inside Turkey or any other country from which an incursion was staged.

December 16, 2011 Briefs
• President Barack Obama and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak talked for half an hour in Washington Friday
• At least 3 people killed, 170 injured in clashes between Cairo police and Egyptian demonstrators demanding end of military rule
• Serious suspicions that Qaddafi's death was a war crime raised by chief international Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo. He briefed Security Council on his query to NTC head about probing crimes by all parties including rebels. Thursday, Putin accused US Special Forces of killing Qaddafi when US drones attacked his column. Pentagon spokesman called the accusation "ludicrous".
• Syrian crisis Friday morning brings US defense secretary Leon Panetta to Ankara, Syrian VP A-Shara to Moscow.
• Barak approved new IDF joint special operations force for multidisciplinary missions far from Israel's borders. Missions will include counter-terror, anti-smuggling, anti-proliferation. The Corps' tasks will extend joint IDF operations into strategic depth.

Syria deploys Russian shore-to-sea missiles on its coast, Scuds on Turkish border

16 Dec. Expanded Russian military support for the Assad regime was underscored by the deployment Friday, Dec. 16, of advanced Moscow-supplied Yakhont (SSN-26) shore-to-sea missiles along Syria's Mediterranean shore to fend off a potential invasion by sea. Last week, Russia airlifted to Syria 3 million face masks against chemical and biological weapons; and the Admiral Kutznetsov strike group was sent on its way to Syria's Mediterranean port of Tartus.
The diplomatic flurry around Syria was accentuated by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's arrival in Ankara Friday morning, to find Turkish armed forces on war preparedness, and Syrian Vice President Farouk A-Shara's landing in Moscow for a crisis conference with Russian leaders.

December 17, 2011 Briefs
• At least 40 people killed by Syrian troops Saturday in Deraa, Idlib and Homs, including 3 children. 2 women and 8 army defectors.
• Obama reaffirms unshakeable commitment to Israel's security to Reform Jewish audience.
• Panetta in Tripoli praises courage of Libyan people. Washington annuls anti-Qaddafi sanctions, unlocks frozen funds.
• North Korea agrees to suspend its enriched-uranium nuclear weapons program, according to South Korean news reports. The US grants North Korea up to 240,000 tonnes of food aid.

US exit from Iraq shrinks Israel's options for striking Iran

17 Dec. Tehran offers to slow uranium enrichment in stages in step with the lifting of sanctions. The Obama administration is listening provided Iran ditches Assad. This exchange of messages was carried by Iraqi PM Nouri al Maliki who visited Washington this week. It was raised in President Barack Obama's talks with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak Friday, Dec. 16 when Barak voiced concern that Iran was again buying time and leeway for completing its nuclear weapon program by false messages of conciliation.
From Tehran's standpoint, the American military departure from Iraq has removed a formidable obstacle in Israel's path to an attack on its nuclear installations: the shield of the US Air Force's control of Iraqi skies.

December 18, 2011 Briefs
• An Iraqi delegation holds "positive" talks in Damascus for ending Syrian violence.
• Syria's main opposition group confers in Tunisia.
• Last American troop convoy rolled out of Iraq to Kuwait early Sunday ending war of nearly nine years.
• Former Czech president Vaclav Havel dies aged 75 after long illness.

Erdogan's illness impacts events around Syria and Iran

18 Dec. Extreme concern was quietly voiced Sunday, Dec. 18, by American and European official circles over the state of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's health – and especially its impact on present and impending events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, including Iran, debkafile's Western intelligence sources report. Those sources say Erdogan is suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer but are not sure if it has reached an advanced stage and spread to the regional lymph nodes. The prolonged treatment he needs is already affecting policy-making and has sparked the first signs of a power struggle within his ruling AKP party.
Thursday night, Dec. 15, Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul led a top military command council meeting in Ankara to review preparations for war on two possible fronts - Syria and Iran, if Tehran decides to come to Bashar Assad's aid.
On Friday, the Turkish prime minister met US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who flew in from Baghdad.
When Turkish journalists asked after his health, Erdogan replied: "I'm fine and I will be better."

December 19, 2011 Briefs
• Number of Syrian dead Monday rocketed past 100.
• Up to 70 Syrian army deserters gunned down by machinegun fire as they fled the military posts in the northwestern province of Idlib Monday. They were trying to join the opposition Free Syrian Army in Turkey.
• Earlier Syria signed an accord to accept an Arab League monitoring mission.
• Egyptian military accuses Tahrir Square demonstrators of plotting to burn down parliament.
• North Korea test-fired short-range missile off east coast this morning shortly after Jim Jong Il's death announced.
• Egyptian Salafist Nour 35% narrows gap with Muslim Brotherhood's 40%.
• Shalit swap deal completed with release of another 550 jailed Palestinians Sunday night. Their families attacked Israeli soldiers with rocks and bottle bombs.
• A Syrian armored unit defects to the opposition at Abu Kemal on the Iraqi border to the east.

North Korea's power struggle and the Mid-East nuclear race

19 Dec. The sudden death of Kim Jong II confronts the world for the first time since the Cold War with a leaderless nuclear power about which it knows almost nothing. The inevitable power struggle, which could be drawn out for years, may generate greater North Korea involvement in the Middle East nuclear race.
North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.
Some Western agencies have recently come to believe that China has a bigger stake in those Middle East countries than realized and much of the military technology transferred by North Korea to Iran is actually of Chinese origin.

December 20, 2011 Briefs
• UAE: Pipeline for oil exporters to bypass Strait of Hormuz is nearly finished. Iran has threatened to close the strait if attacked.
• Syrian president Assad imposes capital punishment on arms suppliers to rebels.
• Egyptian police, soldiers use guns, teargas, batons to clear Cairo's Tahrir Sq Tuesday, fifth day of anti-military demo.
• Hillary Clinton: Systematic degradation of women dishonors revolution.
• South Sudan president Salva Kiir visits Israel, holds talks with President Peres, PM Netanyahu, FM Lieberman, Defense Minister Barak. Netanyahu discussed repatriation of illegal Sudanese work-seekers flooding into Israel.

Panetta: Iran is just months away from a nuke – a red line for US and Israel

20 Dec. "Despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, they have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less," said US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in a CBS interview Tuesday, Dec. 20 marking a radical change in US administration policy. "That's a red line for us and that's a red line, obviously, for the Israelis," he said. Instead of warning Israel against striking Iran, he said: "If we have to do it we will deal with it."
A nuclear weapon in Iran is unacceptable, Panetta stressed, adding he has no indication yet that the Iranians have made the decision to go ahead. However, by referring to "a hidden facility somewhere in Iran that may be enriching fuel" he reflected the growing conviction among Western and Middle East intelligence experts that Iran has fast-tracked its high-grade uranium enrichment in underground facilities.
This has lead to the realization that the only way to stop a Middle East nuclear race is to cut down Iran's nuclear program.

December 21, 2011 Briefs
• Iran reports five of its technicians kidnapped in Syrian town of Homs.
• The situation on Israel's northern border is unstable and we are monitoring events in Syria -Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Eidan Nehushtan.
• Palestinian Fatah and Hamas agree to form a unity government by the end of January.
• In Afghanistan, five Polish troops killed by a roadside bomb.

Top US Gen: Iran could draw Mid East and US into conflict

21 Dec. Hours after US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told CBS that Iran could build a nuclear bomb in a year or less, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, issued a warning: "Iran is playing a dangerous game that could ensnare the Middle East, the Middle East and others into conflict and a renewed arms race. Don't push it."
The loss of the drone is not the end of US efforts, he said, adding: "America is sharing intelligence with Israel."
He was described as quietly leading the ongoing military planning for an attack against Iran's nuclear weapons if the president gives the order to do so. Gen. Dempsey went on to say: "My biggest worry is they (Iran) will miscalculate our resolve.
There is no guarantee that Israel will give the United States warning if it decides to attack Iran, he said. "We are trying to establish some confidence on the part of the Israelis that we recognize their concerns and are collaborating with them on addressing them."

December 22, 2011 Briefs
• Baghdad death toll climbs to 67 with hundreds injured as 15 bomb explosions rip through the city Thursday.
• The extremist Hamas may finally gain admittance to the umbrella Palestinian Liberation Organization, the PLO. This was agreed by rivals Fatah and Hamas in Cairo Thursday, clearing the way for a power-sharing deal and Hamas participation in PLO leadership vote.
• French lower house votes for law imposing heavy penalties on deniers of Turkey's Armenian massacre in World War I. Turkey recalls its ambassador from Paris in protest.
• Former Israel chief of staff Gaby Ashkenazi gets a bodyguard against potential Hizballah attempt on his life.
• Arab League reps in Damascus to set up observer mission.
• Israel rejects UK-French-German condemnation of 1,000 new housing units Jerusalem and West Bank.
• Foreign Ministry slams them for risking "loss of credibility and relevance" by failure to deal with Mid East massacres and human rights abuse.

Iran starts building a nuclear weapon: US and Israel tighten cooperation

22 Dec. Iran has embarked on "activities related to possible weaponization," said American sources Thursday, Dec. 22, thereby crossing the Obama administration's red line and leaving a short time before Iran goes nuclear. This accounts for the dramatic reversal of the Obama administration's wait-and-see policy on attacking Iran, as articulated this week by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey.
The US stealth drone RQ-170 downed by Iran on Dec. 4 was sent to find evidence to support this suspicions against Iran. The US and most probably Israel too then turned to other intelligence resources to find out what Iran was up to. They came up with evidence that Iran has begun assembling components of a nuclear bomb or warhead and this was the subject of the conversation between US President Barack Obama and Defense minister Ehud Barak in Maryland on Dec. 16.
debkafile’s sources report a procession of prominent US officials visiting Israel this week to tighten coordination on their next moves. Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third air Force, was one of those visitors. He came to organize the biggest joint military exercise ever held by the US and Israel.
Tuesday, Dec. 20, Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s right-hand, arrived together with Robert Einhorn, a State Department special adviser on nonproliferation. The two came to tie up the diplomatic ends of the decisions reached by President Obama and Defense Minister Barak.