Analysis: Doha accord swings Lebanon’s balance of power to Shiite Hizballah

Heads of the pro-government majority factions and the Hizballah-led opposition reached an agreement in the Qatar capital early Wednesday, May 21, aimed at pulling Lebanon back from the brink of civil war. A president, lacking since last November, will be elected immediately, a new government will be formed with 11 ministries out of 16 for the Hizballah bloc (veto power), new elections will be held and Iran’s Shiite surrogate will not have to disarm.
debkafile‘s Middle East sources report that after 26 years, and in defiance of two UN Security Council resolutions, Hizballah’s armed militia won formal national acceptance and the right to possess an independent weapons arsenal.
While the pro-government Sunni, Christian and Druze faction heads at Doha accepted the standing of Hizballah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as a central national figure, they also agreed to drop his archenemy, the pro-US Fouad Siniora, as prime minister in the new government.
The only candidate for president, chief of staff Gen. Michel Suleiman, expects to be elected by a parliamentary consensus before the end of the week.
Our Middle East sources term the Doha deal on Lebanon a Hizballah walkover, its reward for six days of armed onslaught on government positions, unopposed by the armed forces. It marks the most resounding strategic debacle the West, Israel have experienced since Hamas’ forcible takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2005 and Israel’s failure to smash the Shiite terrorists’ armed strength in 2006.

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