Bush and Putin in Nuclear Tit-for-Tat Accord

Perhaps the most earthshaking outcome of the epic 70-minute conversation between Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin last week was the nuclear understanding they reached in a flash, as part of a new US-Russian political and military pact to fight international terrorism together.
Their conversation also covered a possibly over-optimistic shared vision of a post-war Afghanistan and a post-Saddam Iraq. Afghanistan under a restored monarchy was assigned a special geopolitical role in the regions of Southwest and Central Asia.
Russian and American officials have made no disclosures on the nuclear accord, but
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military and intelligence sources report that Putin gave the nod to Bush to arm the US forces now arriving in Central Asia with tactical nuclear weapons, such as small neutron bombs, which emit strong radiation, nuclear mines, shells, and other nuclear ammunition suited to commando warfare in mountainous terrain.
Moscow’s consent to the deployment of US nuclear weapons in Central Asia, once a Soviet fiefdom where the Russian army is parked even today, constitutes an upheaval in the global balance of strength.
Sources tell DEBKA-Net-Weekly that China’s reaction was instantaneous. Tactical nuclear missiles and aircraft capable of bearing nuclear bombs were transferred to bases in the Xinjiang region (formerly Chinese Turkestan) of northwest China bordering on the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Long Chinese military convoys were seen thundering west along the Krakoram Road, the main Chinese route to the Chinese-Afghan-Pakistani border. Some of the trucks, according to Russian and US surveillance, carried equipment for detecting and de-contaminating areas close to places coming under nuclear, chemical and biological attack.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military sources place the US nuclear weapons in four former Soviet Central Asian bases: the military air facility at Tuzel, 15 km (10 miles) northwest of the Uzbek capital of Tashkent; at Kagady in the Termez region; in Khandabad, near the city of Karshi; and at the military air base in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan.
But integral to the Bush-Putin nuclear deal was a tit for tat: Hours after speaking with Bush, Putin issued a 72-hour ultimatum to the Chechen rebels to lay down their arms. It expired on September 26 without the rebels’ surrender. Putin accordingly deployed Russian tactical nuclear weapons units around Chechnya. He also moved Russian bombers carrying small neutron bombs to Russian military air bases around the border of the breakaway province, in Stavropol northwest of Chechnya, the Godowta base in Georgia to the south, and Mozdok in northern Osetia, northwest of Chechnya.
Russian and U.S. military sources refuse to take questions on these startling events, but it was clear to military observers in Central Asia that Russia did not move its nuclear hardware in a vacuum. This step, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s intelligence sources, was part of an agreed package under which America moved nuclear arms into its anti-terror playing field. As Putin and Red Army chiefs saw it, a free hand for the US to employ tactical nuclear weapons in Afghanistan was countered with reciprocal permission for Moscow to wield tactical nuclear weapons against Muslim rebels in Chechnya, some of whom are backed by bin Laden.
The US is far from eager to actively inject a nuclear element into the war against terrorism and will not be the first to do so. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military sources, the US will hold those tactical nuclear weapons in reserve, unleashing them in the campaign against bin Laden only in the following circumstances:
– If Bin Laden’s men first bring out nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to fight US forces inside Afghanistan’s Little Pamir and Hindu Kush regions.
– If Taliban fighters strike Pakistan with chemical or biological weapons in retaliation for the US assault.
– If forces under the umbrella of bin Laden’s Al Qaeda network – either in Central Asia or the Balkans – bring these weapons of mass destruction into play in order to strike at US military targets or US nuclear arms.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military sources see a fourth scenario:
– If the US pursuit forces discover the terror chief’s hideout and conclude that the action to lay hands on him would exact an intolerable toll in American casualties.
Moreover, the nuclear option will loom too if the US campaign against bin Laden runs into unforeseen difficulties.
The reciprocal deployment of tactical nuclear weaponry was only one facet of the secret accord reached by the US and Russian presidents in their historic telephone conversation.
They also covered important strategic ground on key issues relating to Central Asian oil, Iraq and post-war Afghanistan, based on the assumption that the Taliban regime would be driven out in the coming US-led campaign.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly, who spoke with US and Russian sources conversant with the content of the Bush-Putin conversation, revealed that the two leaders agreed to assign Moscow a position of influence in Kabul after the 86-year old King Zahir Shah was crowned ruler.
The Russians would be provided with a valuable vehicle. The construction of the world’s longest oil and gas pipeline was planned by the two leaders for moving oil from the Central Asian and Russian fields to India and Pakistan via Afghanistan. America would invest in the ambitious 3-4 year project, and extend substantial financing to Moscow to cover its share. After it is operational, building will be scheduled to start on an underwater extension of the pipeline to Japan.
The two presidents’ agreement on Iraq was similarly far-reaching.
Putin promised his government would drop its objections to a major US offensive against America’s long-time nemesis, Saddam Hussein – and even make available Russian intelligence on Iraqi targets, including weapons of mass destruction storage and manufacturing locations, as well as command centers and camps used by terror organizations. But again, in return, Putin demanded that Moscow’s position of influence be preserved in post-Saddam Baghdad. This Bush pledged, together with an offer to join Moscow in rebuilding Iraq’s oil industry.
All this geographical carving up may be premature. There are still hard battles to be won. But the two presidents are in a hurry to win their global power spurs – this time as partners.