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Can Gaza ceasefire free Israeli Air Force to tackle Hizballah missile upgrade plants?

It is obvious from the Israeli security cabinet’s vague statement at the end of a 7-hour meeting on Tuesday, Nov. 13, that the ministers don’t believe the sudden ceasefire declared by Hamas in victory speeches will hold. “IDF attacks on Gaza will continue as required,” said the cabinet statement, as though this needed saying after a  460-missile Palestinian barrage on southern Israel, two deaths, 100 injured, substantial damage and major disruptions from yet another horrendous onslaught from the Gaza Strip.

According to various local sources, the cabinet quietly instructed the IDF not to be drawn into a major operation in the Palestinian enclave for the time being, but to stand ready for coming events – i.e., the next Palestinian rocket cycle that is due in in two days, two weeks or some time in the future. The revival of this bane is a truism which every military expert – and most of all the battered population of southern Israel – take for granted.

This time, the Israeli Air Force was required to strike 160 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets with no noticeable impact on the Palestinian organizations’ belligerence. What will be required of the IDF in the next round? The same old ineffective operations against Hamas? Or maybe another round of cabinet meetings for inconclusive decisions?

At Tuesday’s session, four ministers objected to the cabinet’s decisions as formulated by the prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu: They were Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Education Minister Naftali Bennett, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Minister for Jerusalem affairs, Ze’ev Elkin.

Verbal acrobatics can no longer disguise the fact that Netanyahu sought to turn the clock back to “normal,” as though an entire population could forget the fear, the burning homes and explosions of the last 36 hours – the “normal” being weekly mob assaults on Israeli troops on the Gaza border and the continuing flow of Qatari dollars into Hamas’ coffers, in return for fake “calm.”

Amid Israel’s crumbling deterrence against Palestinian terrorists, the prime minister was motivated in his decision on Tuesday by two considerations that were not brought to the public notice:

  1. The S-300 air defense missiles Russia has deployed to Syria. Netanyahu’s brief chat with President Vladimir Putin in Paris on Sunday yielded no concurrence for the resumption of Israeli air strikes against Iran. It is now up to him to decide whether to take this as a Russian embargo on Israel overflights, or to go ahead and risk resuming those air strikes. In the worst case, the Israeli air force might have to operate on two fronts: Syria and Gaza.
  2. Israel has tied its hands with an ultimatum to Beirut to shut down Iran’s workshops in Lebanon for adding precision-guidance to Hizballah’s surface missiles, or else face Israeli attacks to destroy them. There was no date on the ultimatum. But to carry it through, every ounce of Israel’s air force capabilities will be required. The question is how did Israel’s policy-makers failed to avoid a situation which paralyses its ability to operate against strategic foes in Syria and Lebanon?

 

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39 thoughts on “Can Gaza ceasefire free Israeli Air Force to tackle Hizballah missile upgrade plants?

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 19:53 at 19:53
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    Debka fulfills a fascinating role. It serves as a moral lectern aimed at keeping the politicians honest. Netanyahu is a ditherer. Great at lurid Powerpoint charts and rhetorical flourishes, he always shrinks back from confrontation. This back-and-forth has served him well if you’re, say, Benjamin Netanyahu and a long political life is your chief aspiration. Mission accomplished!

    Those who view geopolitics merely as an instrumentality for securing Genie O&G are very unhappy with Netanyahu. Those of us with a more existential stake in geopolitics (and no shares in Genie) see things differently. Our cart is their horse and vice-versa.

    There are terrific forces prodding Netanyahu forward at this moment. Corruption investigations are devised to eternally nip at his heels. Ceasefires will not be taken lightly by this faction. More signature dithering. Years of procrastination have put the so-called globalists in a bad mood and their situation has deteriorated. What could have been accomplished 20 years ago vis a vis Iran is materially more difficult. Netanyahu managed to convince the globalists that Syria had to be subdued first as a necessary prelude to an Iranian attack. They complied. They are very unhappy. When the globalists catch a cold, humanity gets sent to the fallout shelters with a bad flu.

    • Nov 13, 2018 @ 22:24 at 22:24
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      on point 1

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:00 at 20:00
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    What a load of claptrap you only need 4 aircraft to deal with gaza,Its more denial as far as Hezbollah is concerned

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 13:03 at 13:03
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      160 strikes couldn’t slow the rocket fire?

      IAF shooting fish in a barrel, or should be. I like the light shined on the oil $$ facet – also consider the prolonged small actions keep the restock orders up to the US defence industry, the only real winners in this scenario.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:06 at 20:06
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    Tit for tat is not a good policy.
    Hamas must be invaded and vanquished!

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 0:31 at 0:31
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      yeah true!!! go ahead and start the ball rolling. are you going to be at the head or are you going to be sitting comfortably behind your computer are making more belligerent comments urging our soldiers forward to get killed. Hamas does not care if their people get killed. Nathanyahu does.

      • Nov 14, 2018 @ 2:42 at 2:42
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        The Israeli’s can’t afford to let this be a distraction when they have the Russian/Iranian wolf at the door. Gaza (and Libya, with missile launch sites there waiting to launch on Tel Aviv) is just the Trojan Horse that’s already there!

        Once this lights off, Israel must not hesitate. They MUST use their neutron weapons on Gaza and turn its attention to Russ/Iran.

        If the IDF is already not sure what to do, they are doomed. ALL of the secular athiests will die in Israel, soon, regardless, in the main war. You don’t have a gay pride march in Jerusalem and get away with it. God is love, but God is justice and it is God’s justice. All of the messianic Jews will be saved by Jesus, and it will include the jews who don’t yet believe in Jesus but will soon.

        • Nov 14, 2018 @ 13:06 at 13:06
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          I think John Conrad, may have a similar response to your reply – pick up your rifle and lead the charge!

          Or just gay bash from behind the keys… Way to win the world over for the Jewish cause

      • Nov 15, 2018 @ 1:14 at 1:14
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        To. John Conrad et all:

        Keep retreating and enabling your openly declared, multiply funded , politically backed, sworn enemies until Israelis will be defeated, disarmed and murdered.

        Now is the time to go all the way, there is no other way. there is no “peace of the brave” there is only peace of the grave; for you, your wifes, children, grand children, parents and grandparents. Sweep them out. Make the EU and the Arab states take in their brethren and then criticize them for being inhumane.

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 9:49 at 9:49
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      Israel’s unwillingness to administer Gaza and bring the human rights to residents promised in the Mandate was the path chosen.
      It has not been tried and failed, but tried and found too hard.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:23 at 20:23
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    FSD makes a point, but it is old.

    the reality is Netanyahu as a leader, but as the ultimate politician. a type of Chamberlain if you will.
    smiling, showing signed papers, graphs, proofs of enemies intents past and present. etc.

    Every leader of a government eventually falls or dies, but there is change. Change is what he does not want, for his own reasons, but not the reasons of his people.

    the south is going to protest with tires burning, a blocking of roads in Tel Aviv, all futile

    what will get Netanyahu is if the people of the south got out their own weapons, lined the Gaza border and started to shoot directly at those who dare come close to the fence.
    this would accomplish 2 things. one, the govt will have to follow up on the citizens demand, albeit an illegal act by those who do such a thing, but it will sharply remind Hamas, that Israel is not Netanyahu, but Israeli jews that are protecting what is theirs, politics aside.
    will it accomplish anything? probably not, but it will draw in the army to finally finish off the Hamas cancer .

    the politician is always concerned of his image and what he leaves behind, the leader says” damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead” , ergo, time for Netanyahu to go.

    • Nov 13, 2018 @ 22:25 at 22:25
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      on point 2

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 15:53 at 15:53
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      Very well could be like Chamberlain. Chamberlain signed the papers because he knew that his army wasn’t prepared to take on Germany. Netanyahu knows that his next step could be his last step and yours as well.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:32 at 20:32
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    What a load of manure. I can’t believe this government full of spinless cowards fell for another Hamas ceasefire. I guess bombing empty buildings really does bring the enemy to their knees and the barganing table. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHA

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:46 at 20:46
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    I don’t’ believe anymore the Hamas population occupying Gaza.
    You crooked people calling yourselves “Palestinians” have no shame?
    Extorting 15 M$ with the threat of more rocketing civilian neighbors?
    You have exposed your true face: racket and historical fraud!
    Now the whole World knows your crooked ways.
    Garbage like you must receive zero help and compassion, you have no right show up in UN or any international organisms, you have no right to call yourselves “Palestinians”, your lies are worthless, you do not belong anywhere, end of story, no more lies!

    • Nov 13, 2018 @ 23:07 at 23:07
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      Hey, this gang of people originating from the slums of Tunis are the bandits who killed scores at the Olympics in Munich. Their true name is Black September, not Palestinians.

      • Nov 14, 2018 @ 4:18 at 4:18
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        They’re Pal-e-SWINEians.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:47 at 20:47
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    How sad ! I do not recognize Israel of the 1956, of the 1967, of the 1973…. Israel has lost his spirit.. NEVER AGAIN we said in 1945… It looks that it will be again.. Wake up!

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 2:01 at 2:01
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      Amen!

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:48 at 20:48
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    My goodness…if people hadn’t died from this latest round this would be absolutely hillarious. Jesus said not to call your brother a “fool” but I guess he didn’t include modern Israel.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:52 at 20:52
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    All I can say is Hamas are BRILLIANT strategists….Name one other army in the world that can pull off this same BS time and again and keep coming up in tact and ready to fight another day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 20:55 at 20:55
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    Hard choices – land invasion to destroy terrorists in Gaza or allow them to terrorize half of Israel. Either choice is costly but doing tit for tat and getting the same or more missiles killing Israelis is insanity!

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 21:01 at 21:01
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    Russia pays Qatar to egg on Hamas in order to provoke Israel to a ground war in Gaza. If Gaza is invaded the UN will ask Russia to stop Israeli “aggression” i.e. either invade Gaza or North Israel. The only way for Israel to win is to start destroying Syrian S-300 right now to show Russia that its air force and naval bases in Syria are at mortal risk.

    • Nov 14, 2018 @ 1:27 at 1:27
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      If a massive and full destruction of the enemy is not possible because of the S-300’s as indicated by the Nentayahu cabinet,then the Jewish state is in serious trouble.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 21:09 at 21:09
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    having total air superiority is not a technical problem to take every rocket launching squad in a couple of minutes it is in a position, it is lack of political will, both of Netanyahu and Ramatcal, who probably already is locating for himself place in politics.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 21:13 at 21:13
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    Hmmm, perhaps there is more happening in the background that we are all unaware of or even suspect. Israel leadership has very good reasons for not pounding on Hamas at this time. We know they can, undoubtedly they want to, but with our extremely limited view of these events we ultimately do not know why they don’t. Peace.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 21:25 at 21:25
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    Ceasefire number ??Bibi and co give a damn of the people in the South.The IDF can’t barely handled +/- 450 rockets and mortars.So think twice before attacking Hezbollah. And what about the hiatus / now 8 weeks in the Syria strikes?The future isn’t looking bright.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 21:42 at 21:42
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    The problem of Gaza is not half as difficult as people make out. All it takes is imagination and courage. It simply needs to be levelled area by area, until the firing stops. I would start with Khan Yunis and work southwards. Nothing wrong with hundreds of thousands of Gazans living in tents amid the rubble thenceforth. It has to be remembered that Israel’s other enemies are watching all this dithering and handwringing and they are not impressed.

    • Nov 16, 2018 @ 18:48 at 18:48
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      You’re asssuming Hamas cares about its population, which it has shown it does not. Instead, Hamas would wait for the world’s press to show flattened buildings, Palestinian wounded and dead, and those without homes because of Israeli bombartment and wait for the worldwide condemnation of Israel to builld to a point where Issrael would have to stop the campaign you suggest –and lose the PR war again.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 22:58 at 22:58
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    Forcibly move all PLO and PA in Gaza City, to help them discuss and find a way for The Peace Plan that will soon hit the Palestinians.

  • Nov 13, 2018 @ 23:26 at 23:26
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    BiBi can’t afford big attack now, imagine there will be trails 4 months from now, imagine the bereaved famelies. It will be a circus trial, sure you can say BiBi need to widraw but he believes he might make it in a trial (without looking into the eyes of the famelies ofc)
    Second thing, there are no election now. And if there will be election months from now, the alternative between Zipi livni the wants to talk to Abu mazen and BiBi who doesn’t, who will win the current likud votes? BiBi for sure, and even some will leave him it will be for Benet not Zipi or Gabai. All the coalition is OK with the current “ceasefire”

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 2:28 at 2:28
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    The Israeli’s can’t afford to let this be a distraction when they have the Russian/Iranian wolf at the door. Gaza (and Libya, with missile launch sites there waiting to launch on Tel Aviv) is just the Trojan Horse that’s already there!

    Once this lights off, Israel must not hesitate. They MUST use their neutron weapons on Gaza and turn its attention to Russ/Iran.

    If the IDF is already not sure what to do, they are doomed. ALL of the secular athiests will die in Israel, soon, regardless, in the main war. You don’t have a gay pride march in Jerusalem and get away with it. God is love, but God is justice and it is God’s justice. All of the messianic Jews will be saved by Jesus, and it will include the jews who don’t yet believe in Jesus but will soon.

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 2:49 at 2:49
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    Maybe this maybe that, who knows. However, one thing is pretty sure. Even if Israel wipes Hamas out they will likely turn the area over to the PA. Will that really make things better?

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 7:46 at 7:46
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    Would you prefer Livni? How about Olmert or Peretz?
    What do you propose doing with all of the residents of Gaza, after you have destroyed Gaza infrastructure?

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 10:53 at 10:53
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    Just look at the title of this Debka article:

    “Can Gaza ceasefire free Israeli Air Force to tackle Hizballah missile upgrade plants?”

    Since when has Hamas and Islamic Jihad ever honored a “ceasefire” without breaking it at their convenience?????????

    If left unchecked, just what does anyone think would happen between Israel and Gaza within a nanosecond of intense hostilities breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah?????????

    Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza need to be completely neutralized right now!

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 11:43 at 11:43
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    You want the real truth… Rabbinical Judaism will soon become defunct… Why? Only the order after Melchizedek, which endures forever… Will eventually be restored in full glory.
    So in the meantime… God has placed his tools of circumsizing the heart and the gardening of weeds & plants strategically with the assets of Iran and there subordinates. Did you not know that God lifts up Iran to be a tool of judgement against the west and it’s alignments?

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 16:17 at 16:17
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    Same old song and dance that has been going years for years and years now its almost like nobody wants it to change?

  • Nov 14, 2018 @ 20:25 at 20:25
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    hezbollah is gonna abuse thise, israel showed a weakness … they clearly are afraid for a two front war (Gaza & Hezbollah)

    The smart move for hezbollah now to do would be to start a war together with hamas as allies against israel.

  • Nov 15, 2018 @ 4:12 at 4:12
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    The real threat is to the north, attack Iran in Syria and you may have war with Russia (assuming the S300s even work against the IDF, prediction: they won’t which will really upset the russians because who wants their junk).

    The other threat, Hezbollah is immediate and MUST be dealt with. If they get masses of precision missiles, it is game over. Israel has now publicly warned Hezbollah/Lebanon twice on this threat. This threat will be neutralized. Perhaps, “Black Friday” slowest news day of the year in the US.

    When Israel did not finish Hamas, the most simple reason, Occam’s Razor, was they needed to do something elsewhere.

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