Four players jockeying for post-war positions in Syria. US & Israel vs Russia & Iran
Trump took a big move in this game on Jan. 12 when he stipulated that Europe agree to overhaul the Iran nuclear accord on enrichment and ballistic missiles.
That condition, which President Donald Trump laid down for the future – when on Friday he met the deadline for re-certifying US sanction waivers and kept the 2015 nuclear accord in place – was just one facet of his administration’s frontal campaign against Iran. The main arena of this evolving pitched battle is Syria, DEBKAfile’s Washington and military sources report, and it targets not only Iran but also Russia. The Trump administration opted for this policy departure as the new year unfolded in the light of four game-changing developments:
- Russia is not pulling its army out of Syria after all, despite the commitment made publicly by President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 11. Just the reverse: Moscow is bolstering its military presence there, mainly with air force contingents.
- Moves on the ground attest to deepening Russian-Iranian cooperation in Syria.
- Iran is reported by intelligence agencies to be preparing a large-scale supplementary military deployment to Syria, which our sources estimate as running to several thousand Shiite fighters.
- Tehran has boosted its consignments of advanced weaponry to Syria, including ballistic missiles. The Israeli air strike on Jan. 9 targeted one of those shipments when it was delivered to a Syrian ground-to-ground missile base at al-Qutaifa west of Damascus.
A notable point made by that attack was that this time, unlike in most other air sorties in Syria, Israel was acting in conjunction with the United States. This was a reversal of Israel’s former strategy during the six years of the Syrian civil war. Until now, its military actions in Syria were kept separate from US operations in that country. The Israeli turnaround followed the revamping of US policy. Trump has dropped his former decision to limit US military action in Syria to fighting the Islamic State. He is now ready to go for the Iranian military presence in Syria including its proxy, Hizballah. This opened the door to closer US-Israeli military cooperation in Syria.
But there are also broader connotations: Syria finds itself back at the heart of Middle East strife. As the civil war winds down, that country is evolving into a pivotal arena for big power competition, with the US and Israel lining up against Russia and Iran. Interestingly, the easing of tensions between Washington and Pyongyang has helped Washington switch its focus to the jockeying for position in post-war Syria against two other rivals, Moscow and Tehran.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has, for his part, done his utmost throughout the conflict to keep an open line of communication with Vladimir Putin and avoid colliding with Russian military elements in Syria. But it is hard to see how he can keep this up in the near future and avoid a clash between Israeli and Russian interests there. Still, in Jerusalem, Moscow was awarded good marks for staying silent over Israel’s latest air strike against the Iranian arms shipment at al-Quteifa.
Important light was shed on US intentions for Iran – even more clearly than President Trump’s future stipulations for abiding by the nuclear deal – when David Satterfield, Acting Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, appeared a day earlier before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. Asked by Chris Murphy (D-Conn), “What functions do US troops serve in Syria besides fighting ISIS?” Satterfield and other aides with him declined to answer, except behind closed doors. Only when he was pressed hard by Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), and told he is obliged to answer, did Satterfield finally say: “We are deeply concerned with the activities of Iran, with the ability of Iran to enhance those activities through a greater ability to move materiel into Syria. And I would rather leave the discussion at that point.”
Iran us definitely not allowing US to stay as sure as the sun will set tomorrow.
Assad is on the winning side with forces far better positioned and fire power plus it is the legal govt.
Just watch…. No way Assad or Syrians will allow us to have a piece of Syria
.. Russia and Turkey will make sure besides Iran which can easily field hundreds of thousands instantly in Syria.
US has nothing only air power which Russia can take care or Iranian Sam’s
Just impossible
ROFL only in putins dreams and his trolls like you,,Russia and Iran are nothing more than ants
You are joking right? Right now Russia and Iran are the main force that are beating the shit out of terrorists supported by a host of countries from Israel to Saudis. What has US or Lsrael achieved so far? Almost nothing.
I tell you this, at the moment no force in Syria can defeat the Iranians for certain.
Iran can mobilise hundreds of thousands of fighters in seconds if a real war starts and there is just no way Iran will allow US forces to stay in Syria to control Iran.
It’s a joke US can control Iran in Syria really …how may I ask and with what.
No i am not joking,Russia and Iran are ants waiting to be exterminated,now crawl back under your rock you sub human Kremlin troll
do you know that when call anyone you disagrees with you a troll you sound like a typical American over weight retard?
Then who you’re, Netanyahu boots licker?
Try, Russia will fry your pissant country. Also, new york. meanwhile IRANIANS WILL TRAMPLE YOUR STATE UNDER FOOT
fat junkie motherfucker
“Try, Russia will fry your pissant country. Also, new york. meanwhile IRANIANS WILL TRAMPLE YOUR STATE UNDER FOOT”
@iVaN,
iVaN just had another one of his dreams—————
Russia wants bases on the Syrian coast. They want to limit ISIS who can cause them trouble at home. They may not have a long term interest in Iran hegemony in the region. Nor are they made more secure by Iran nuclear missiles. They do not have a dog in the Shii vs. Sunni fight, even though they may enjoy watching someone poke a stick in the eye of the US.
Iran can field 100,000 soldiers, but they cannot match US air power. The Russian maybe can, but they may not find it in their interests to defend Iran if their bases are not in danger because of a change in the Syrian govt. Both Russia and the US have reason to co-operate against ISIS gaining territory again. Iran has the same interest, so the 3 have worked together somewhat. This may be temporary.
Ants in pants
Your premise – that the US “wants a piece of Syria” is wrong. Yes, you are a pro-Russian plant.
A fair assessor of the US/Israel position would know the proactive containment of Iran’s hegemonic agenda with respect to extending its sphere of influence all the way to the Mediterranean AND its declared intent to destroy Israel, its “little Satan” is the point of the US involvement in Syria.
But I don’t expect a Russian troll to see that the US will leave Syria as soon as Russia decides it has no dog in that fight, too. I’m sure you are willfully blind to this fact.
a
He said ‘us’, AKA the Kurdish project, eliminationist. Troll? We don’t get fooled again, jew bollocks. Time’s up…
“He said ‘us’, AKA the Kurdish project, eliminationist. Troll? We don’t get fooled again, jew bollocks. Time’s up…”
@iVaN,
Your anti-Semitism is showing——–for all to see!
BTW, you may want to have a professional look at you computer keyboard as it appears that your capital “J” is broken!
Assad is a puppet of Iran and Russia at this point and a miserable dictator who rules under pretend elections without any opposition participation. He is teetering on the brink and one false step will spell his end – the Qaddafi departure route.
Russia and Iran appear to be working together for now but Iran is in for the long term – Russia is in only for certain assets like the port in Tartus and to make sure it has enough intelligence capability to detect massive terror attacks from the region on its own Russian soil.
The only way Russia will succeed is if Iran is kept away and Russia will use the USA and Israel as the official “bad guys” to keep Iran in check. However, Iran will see through this ruse and begin (as it has already on certain clandestine attacks on Russia in Syria) to terrorize Russia through its many terror proxies a la Afghanistan 1979 – 1989.
Israel must keep up by attacking supplies and supply routes. The only way Iran will lose this is by not being able to afford all its nasty terror ventures outside of Iran. Starve them into proper decisions to go home and leve Syria to the Syrians and possibly the “Palestinians” who identified with Syria pre-1948 and will find needed jobs and homes there to help rebuild that plundered and genocide-ridden Islamist enclave known formerly as Syria,
Of course you guys would wish Russia will abandon Assad when it has been Assad that saved Russia . If Assad had allowed the pipeline Syria would not be at war and Russia destroyed economically.
So to think that Russia will all US to be in Syria is lame…not by a mile.
So with Russia , Iran, Hez and entire Syrian people plus international law , how the heck can US remain in Syria when there is no ground force strong enough to resist that great ASSAD’s forces.
Do you expect the few US forces to fight house to house with Battle hardened hez and iranian forces?
Look at Yemen, this bare footed Houthis cannot be beaten by all the air powers
Do you figure that Assad’s forces trust Iran or Russia? They are beholden to them because Russia, Iran and mostly the Kurds in other jurisdictions defeated the cannibals in ISIL. Assad is a maniac dictator who is hanging on by his fingernails. Nobody will be sorry to see him go. If Russia and America can manage to set aside their differences in this particular region, they can cleanse it of Islamists (both Shia and Sunni) and then break the country up into its logical tribal parts – make emirates out of Syria with the largest component a new Kurdish state spanning several nations at this time. Kurds have a population of up to 40 million – enough to take on radical Islamism if they want and when properly armed.
“Nobody will be sorry to see him go” You mean everybody in Netanyahu administration.
I would claim in name of worlds, most of people in the world would feels sorry. If not for Mr. Assad and his people (beside Russia,Iran and Hezbullah) to fight ISIS and Whatever ALs terrorist grup, Syria would became a Libya by now.
First thing the turds do not have a claim to a large part of Syria secondly
Iran and more so Syria are mere pawns .to think that America and Russia can
Work on a common goal in the middle East is absurd , this isn’t about iran or Syria it’s about East vs west that is America vs Russia.
Who do you mean by “you guys”? I can assure you that I am neither American nor Israeli. If you were not so filled with hate and prejudice and propaganda, then maybe you could hold a discussion or conversation without blind hatred and (what leftists always refer to as “racism” which is currently and completely the purview of the left).
““Nobody will be sorry to see him go” You mean everybody in Netanyahu administration.”
@ worldcitizen,
What about everybody who was part of the 500,000 displaced Syrians, would they be sorry to see him go?
Too bad the Syrians who were murdered by Assad’s gas-laden barrel bombs no longer have a say in any of this!
OK, oh yeah sure, Bagdad Bob. We’ve heard about “battle hardened” forces before. Once confronted by professional soldiers, like US Marines, they surrendered in droves, to unmanned UAVs.
The USA and Israel can also help by setting up a strong and armed Kurdish nation spanning Syria-Turkey-Iraq-Iran. This will be an effective counter to the Shia spread and so that the new Shia Caliphate will soon be history just as the vicious Sunni caliphate has disappeared thanks mostly to Kurdish and the other partners like USA, Russia, etc.
And you know exactly, IT IS ILLEGAL by any means, Fyi , Russia and Iran come to Syria based on Syrian Govt invitation.
Did that invitation have pretty flowers on it? We are talking about dictators who gas their own people and kill their own families to secure power. We are talking about Muslims whose main goal in life is to expand Islam at any cost to themselves and the world. We are talking about Russian KGB types who want to re-establish the Soviet Union and will incinerate hundreds of thousands to do that job just as their Islamist allies and enemies (at the same time) have put to death 500,000 in the past few years.
For your information if you do not know, Assad the great is winning the war and very fast now.
He is fighting Terrorists and his soldiers are dying doing it. Do you support Terrorists or those who kill terrorists?
I know you can’t answer this
I see no differences among the various Islamic factions. To me they are all terrorists and enemies of the West with uncontestable and despicable faith-based commands for them to be raised as Jew-Christian haters. Assad = Hassan Nasrallah = Recep Tayyip Erdogan = Hassan Rouhani = Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi = Adolph Hitler. You get the picture, right? They are all believers in the same book with minor variations having them killing each other by the millions since soon after Islam’s inception in the 600’s.
There is only ONE superpower in the world. America can, will, and does what it wants to do. Russia will NEVER engage an American aircraft anywhere in the world. When we say, “Get in line”, Russia will get in line, just like every other second-world country. Think about it!!!!
. “No way Assad or Syrians will allow us to have a piece of Syria…” Peter, you say ‘us’ in your quoted statement. You are not ‘us’ (you are not American). Just a Russian or worse, an Islamist troll.
Just because of the previous US administrations passiveness involving all things ‘military’, this does not apply to the current Administration. The US Military is more than capable and if given the ‘green light’ will be more than capable of ridding Syria of Russian and Iranian presence there. The Russians work on a shoe sting budget and are years behind US or Israeli military ‘tech’ and are unable to compete with US Naval Forces or Air Forces or Ground Forces if it comes to that. Russia’s successes in the Ukraine and Syria are anything, but momentous military actions. They were not fighting against anything remotely like the US Military. The Iranians seem ‘tough’, but like the former Iraq (Saddam) they are not really a world class fighting entity. Who have they been up against? Isis? Yemen? Sunni rebels? Much like the Russians, they are no match against a determined (as is the current Administration) US military effort or combined US led coalition.
Forget Obama, that Administration gave US enemies or potential adversaries, overconfidence in their own military abilities.
You may wish to ‘come back’ at me with Afghanistan as a mark against the US military, but remember that Obama pulled us out (almost all) and now we are in an advisory role mostly against an indigenous and elusive enemy that relies on terror attacks then melts back into civil society, unlike ISIS or the other rebel ‘quasi military’ type adversaries in Iraq ad Syria.
A determined US/Israeli or Coalition force would be an overwhelming adversary to Russia/Iran. Russia would not want to display it’s weakness by losing even one engagement with the US. They would quickly pull out of the region if it came to that. Just imagine Putin’s Syrian Airbase being vaporized in one quick attack. He would not survive such a defeat politically back home in Russia. The only reason Russia and Iran are where they are now is simple. That would be…Obama.
The cult ruling Iran that worships little boys living in well bottoms has a savage beat down long time coming. All their boasting and anti-yankee bravado is about to become wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Well if the USA vaporized the Russian Base in Syria the USA can probably say goodbye to a few important bases for example Diego Garcia.
I was not referencing a nuclear attack, I should have said attacked and destroyed. The Russians would not get involved in a war with the US. Putin would lose and be a disgrace. He wouldn’t put himself in that position. During the cold war (I’m 60) Russian would go to the Security Council and complain. Every time the US or Israel confronted Soviet backed regimes, this is all that would happen. That’s when they were at the height of their power (they are not there now). They would deny endlessly any accusation directed at them. For instance, militarily supporting our or Israel’s enemies like Vietnam or the Arabs in their wars against Israel (56, 67, 73 in which Russian pilots in Egyptian Migs were confronted and shot down by the Israeli Air Force). They Russians are trying to be a Super Power, but it takes more than what they are doing in Syria. My opinion along with verifiable facts. Russia would not dare attack an American Base even if they were attached in Syria. They would go to the UN. The Arabs learned this same technique over the years from their mentors, the Russians
Fight till death… not always a good advice, hmmm, what do you think?! Oh, and those Russians are fucking Nazis, may Jah send them to hell!!!
Since WW2 the World turned into a giant Ches game between the Super Powers, this Chess “games” are over resources, money markets, influence etc…, these wars WILL go on & on in different parts of the World & WILL get worse when China will join in fully, right now China is flexing their muscles a bit in Africa & Asia, just wait till they go full throttle !
Of course you guys would wish Russia will abandon Assad when it has been Assad that saved Russia . If Assad had allowed the pipeline Syria would not be at war and Russia destroyed economically.
So to think that Russia will all US to be in Syria is lame…not by a mile.
So with Russia , Iran, Hez and entire Syrian people plus international law , how the heck can US remain in Syria when there is no ground force strong enough to resist that great ASSAD’s forces.
Do you expect the few US forces to fight house to house with Battle hardened hez and iranian forces?
Look at Yemen, this bare footed Houthis cannot be beaten by all the air powers
Who gives a damn about the future of Russia, Iran or Syria?…They do not care about their own people so why should we give a rat’s ass about any of these dictatorships and terrorist entities?
Russia and Iran should stay in Syria to make Israel in check, and in the right time to make Israel fulfill it’s obligation, such as returning all occupied lands to respective owners.
“—————— this isn’t about iran or Syria it’s about East vs west that is America vs Russia.”
@Joshua ben pandira,
The bigger picture to all of this “East vs West” is radical (Shiite AND Sunni) Islam vs the West——–nothing new here since the 7th. century.
“Russia and Iran should stay in Syria to make Israel in check”
@worldcitizen,
Russia is in Syria because they want military air and naval bases with proximity to the Mediterranean for their own purposes.
Iran is in Syria because they simply want to take over the Middle East.
There’s just no point in being so naive, “worldcitizen”, unless, of course, you have another agenda.
Israel has an obligation to its people and to preserve the integrity of land that is legally and historically theirs and givin to its people as evidenced in bible.
Is real has an obligation to fight the lies and stupidity of people who would rather replace the Jewish people with violent and greedy interlopers who already have 22 countries in the region but destroyed many of them with the exception of a few lucky examples with so much oil money that foreigners were able to influence Islamist s to open up their countries to modifications of their normal sharia enough to prevent wholesale slaughter, terror and jihad.
If you want death and destruction for you and your family, worldcitizen, then move to Syria, Yemen, Turkey, or Gaza, etc., but do not promote death cults for others.
Israel isn’t involved except to defend its people and borders from the Islamo-facists and occupiers in Syria who you, worldfacistcitizen, support and admire.
Out of the 4 leaders in the headline picture which one you put your money on?
Putin
thats what everyone doesnt understand,you think US ,Israel,Russia ,Iran,china ,turkey are on different bands? wake up already. they are all on the same team, it all goes back to dividing wealth and by wealth i mean “Palestinians,Kurds,Oil,Gas” all this is just a demographic/geopolitical shuffle with a spray of economical benefit.
bibi
Just read Ezekiel 38-39 and Isaiah 17. Damascus is the oldest continually inhabited city in the world. Approximately 5,000 yrs old, but the Bible makes it quite clear that it will cease from being a city. It will be a heap of rubble. Some will say that it is close to that now? The key is that it will cease from being a city, and by all indications it appears to happen over night. Without going and looking, I believe Jeremiah either 47 or 49 also mentions the destruction of Damascus. This will probably lead to the invasion of Israel described in Ezekiel 38-39. It’s later than you think. 1 Corinthians 15:1-4
Russia is committed to two things one related to the other. Putin and his crony capitalist buddies exclusive control of oil in the region, pipelines etc, they have their thumbs in every pie and to insure they have that they need their military presence as they have done exactly what the Cold War objectives had established as a vital national security interest, oil in the region.
Russians adventurism was expressed in their failed and ultimately Soviet damning invasion and attempted occupation of Afghanistan, its genocidal acts against the Chechnya peoples and even in those former territories that had been oppressed in the Stans, their Mosques razed entire peoples dislocated they continue to collect revenues by prior arrangements contingent on leaving the USSR and pipelines. The Ukraine in part find out how sensitive the Russians can be when you don;t pay your pipeline shares.
Despite Putin’s claims the Russian military and its 5th Shiite Corps/Syrian Army was never intent on destroying the Islamic State the air campaign focused on destroying Islamic State oil tankard trucks over 1,000 “stealing” Syrian and Russian oil.
Even in Iraq despite the radical left and pro-Islamist’s claims that Bush was fighting an oil war it was the Russians that were expecting to most benefit from a pipeline and the USA which bore the costs of recovering the Iraqi oil industry to benefit the Iraqi peoples.
The present course was set when Russia invaded Georgia and ended any hope of breaking the Russian hegemony on oil and its pipelines. Even the Turks as a result are more dependent on Russian oil delivery than ever before with few options.
President Obama had the best opportunity to to eject Assad and his personal sponsor the Russians. Instead of a showdown after the Russian fleet left Latakia and Tarsus as a result of the “rebel” threat, they returned, they have come and gone form Syria several times but a condition of the Iranian deal seems to have been the inclusion of more Russian involvement and President Obama for whatever personal and political reasons possibly to spite Netanyahu and indulge the radical Islamists identified as in America Back Islamists, BLM and others perversely took satisfaction in lighting the match by withdrawing US troops and watching Iraq and Syria burn. But for even the “Hip Hop Nation”, sic given credit for his election it wasn’t enough and as early as 2008 were expressing their dissatisfaction with hs lethargic move to demilitarize, unilaterally Iraq and left it in the lurch while talking out of both sides of his mouth as to a Surge in Afghanistan.
President Trump has been left with the tragedy of President Obama’s policies that resulted in millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands of dead. He finally got to fullfill his own prophecy made when he was a Senator that Iraq was another Vietnam but only because that was the attitude he brought to leadership.
President Trump’s key appointees were attacked early especially General Flynn who had consistently deemed Iran as America’s principle threat.
At best we can contribute to the need to contain the Shiite militias including Hezballah.
As long as the left continues to support the Russians while concealing that effort behind a facade created to make President Trump appear to be the one in collusion it will be that much harder.
All we have to do as look at what President Obama failed to do, oust Assad, and what he accomplished by withdrawing troops then doing nothing to restore a situation in crisis to decide what the true goals were and are of the radical left known as the DNC.
Excellent post, jeb!
Russia have it bases, Assad is Iran’s puppet, Abadi’s is up for reelection in Iraq and the Kurd’s have their protector the U.S.. What’s next is the defeat of Iran, Hezbollah, and Shiite militia in battle.
James Staten yes and aamen…. The hour is very very late. He who promised is faithful. In this world, there will be tribulation, but be of good cheer because I have overcome the world. HARPAZO ?!!!!
Why are all the players F—ing around? When will we see a full scale war and resulting victor? These little peacock games have been going on for decades. Let’s get it on!
The “drone” attack on Russian forces illustrates that not all is good for Russia in Syria. Turkey wants them out because they are attacking Sunnis. Iran may have been involved to help Turkish agents in that attack on Russian positions (or perhaps rogue elements which provided drone technology and which involved the participation of a Syrian terror proxy) – even though Iran is in the same mind/objective as Russia to destroy Sunnis in Syria.
Turkey will not sit quiet while Sunnis are being killed because Turkey sees itself as the great protector of Sunnis in Syria.
The Kurds are a great force who want to carve Syria up in order to add to an extended region spanning several countries in which the Kurdish nation will evolve and emerge.
Watch out for future attacks on Russians. This could become Russia’s new Afghanistan quagmire.
“Watch out for future attacks on Russians. This could become Russia’s new Afghanistan quagmire.”
@Anonymous,
If that turns out to be true————the Russians deserve it!
Yes, they all deserve the hell they have brought upon themselves – especially Islamists who live to kill and whose books inspire conquest, death and destruction – and they reward murder with incomes in the PA – the longer the sentence the murderers receive from Israel for their murderous rampages, the more money they get from Mahmoud Abbas for their terror campaigns.
One does not need to guess russian behaviour in the case of Syrian/Hezbollah war against Israel, since there are two test cases of such behaviour in the past. One in 1967 (six days war) and the other in 1973 ( The yom Kippur war). In both cases Russians had military bases in Egypt and Syria (of so called military advisers) with tactical ability and SA missiles systems to protect allies from Israeli air force attacks. In both cases Russians did not involve in fighting, except operation of these defensive systems, even after destruction of these systems by Israelis with some casualties of russian teams . We may put some predictions based on these test cases and adding third player – Iran. The war is expected this summer.
1. The war will start with skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah opposite the Golan Heights and Lebanon border. Russia, USA and Iran will not respond on the ground and in the air.
2. Next stage of the war will be rocket attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Israeli attacks on South Lebanon and Hezbollah bases in Syria. Russia, Iran and USA will express concern and condemn the relevant sides, each according to its agenda. Iranians will be not allowed to transfer forces into Syria.
3. Israeli forces crossing into Lebanon will be tacitly allowed by Russia and USA to advance a few kilometers. Israel will be not allowed to cross into Syria. Iranians will be silenced and threatened not to activate its middle-distance missiles against Israel.
4. Result of the war depends on the success of Israel in Lebanon. If within a few days it will succeed to take over and secure most of Hezbollah military installations it will stop and negotiate (with Russia and USA). In the case of failure it will be forced to retreat to international border.
5. In any of these stages Iran will be not allowed to transfer additional forces and use middle-distance missiles against Israel. Also, no airforce, accept israeli and Hezbollah (drones and possible aircrafts) will participate in fighting. All defense systems – russian, american, israeli and iranian will be utilized, some prototypes tested for the first time on real battlefield.
Whoever touches Israel will experience the ultimate wrath. Turn your weapons into agricultural tools and go take care of your own people. The terrorists and their supporters should think twice if they want their families to see their low life murderer children again and avoid visiting their carcasses scattered all over the place. Iranians and Russians and Turkish really have no business doing on Israels borders. Go home and take care of your people and stop helping the Iranian attempts of genocide against the Syrian, Israeli, Kurdish, and Sunni Peoples. The world only loses with the evil Iranian regime and their backers including the Iranian People themselves. Go learn to plant and build instead of destroying, murdering, and raping. Be a human not a nazi barbarian.
“Turn your weapons into agricultural tools and go take care of your own people.”
@Natan,
Sounds like great advice for Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Assad regime, North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran————one only wishes that would happen!