Hizballah’s missile precision crash project slowed. 250 upgraded out of 14,000
The Iranian-Hizballah crash program for converting 14,000 medium-range Zelzal 2s into precision-guided missiles is struggling. But 250 are still a threat.
On Friday, Feb. 15, Hizballah’s Al Mayadin network released a clip out of the blue depicting a four-year old incident, in which its forces on Jan. 28, 2015 shot up an IDF mounted border patrol, killing two Israeli soldiers and injuring another seven. It came, DEBKAfile’s military sources note, just hours after the IDF’s 401st Armored Brigade completed an exercise
with air force support that centered on repelling a Hizballah invasion and chasing the raiders across the order into Lebanon.
The Lebanese terrorist group found three chilling revelations in this drill and so drew on a past event for bravado. The Israeli exercise featured an elite armored unit; it used the IDF’s main battle tank, the Chariot Mark 4 (M4) Windbreaker, which has a strong missile-defense capability and is often rated as the best tank in the world; and, finally, the exercise concluded with the Israeli army pursuing the enemy across the border into Lebanon. Those features told Hizballah that the era of the former IDF chief of staff Gady Eisenkot was over and his successor Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi realistically contemplated sending an elite Israeli fighting unit into Lebanon and carrying the battle across the border in a future conflict.
The Israeli public knows very little about this back and forth. On Dec. 6, 2018, Binyamin Netanyahu, who doubles as prime minister and defense minister, said: “This terrorist organization had planned to be armed with thousands of [precision] rockets, but for the moment they only have a few score.” IDF Intelligence (AMAN) Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman put it this way: “Hizballah does not have the industrial capacity for precision-guidance conversions.”
Neither answered the key questions: “Has Hizballah acquired precision-guided missiles or not? And if so, how many?
DEBKAfile offers some answers from its own and Western military and intelligence sources. Hizballah is estimated to have upgraded 90-250 medium-range missiles for high precision strikes. This is not enough for the full-scale missile war on Israel planned by Iran and Hizballah. On the assumption that Hizballah fails to launch 10 percent of this number (for other armies 4 percent is the norm), and the Israeli Air Force knocks out some of its mobile launch vehicles, “only” 50 of the estimated 250 would land within their radius and reach their targets. Even then, the fallout would be appalling, given Israel’s densely populated heartland.
Iran and Hizballah decided therefore to limit the upgrade program to the 14,000 Zelzal-2 medium range missiles contained in the Hizballah arsenal. But that too has run into major hindrances. They needed to build factories to perform the process of cutting a section out of the 16-meter long missile to make room for transplanting a GPS command and navigation gear and a control system, while also attaching small winglets to the body for changing direction after launch. This process transforms the Zelzal 2 into a virtual Fatteh110, which has a range of 300km.
These components are manufactured in factories in Iran under the supervision of the Imam Hussein University in Tehran. Every attempt is being made to smuggle them to Hizballah by air, sea or the trucks that move between Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. It is estimated that although Iran has produced 4,000 of these components, no more than 500-1,000 have got through to Hizballah’s warehouses in Lebanon; the rest destroyed by Israeli air and covert operations striking deep inside Syria and Lebanon.
Another difficulty facing the project has been the need for large halls to house the missiles and their re-assembly units. However, as soon as some of these factories began work in Syria and Lebanon, they were razed by Israeli attacks. Others stand empty after the equipment and components are waylaid by Israel en route from Iran. That was what General Hayman was hinting at when he said Hizballah is short of the industrial capacity for converting its missiles into precision guided weapons.
Hizballah has turned to using small, scattered workshops for this process, at the expense of output and quality of the product. Cost estimates are also relevant. The conversion of a rocket is estimated to cost $10,00 apiece. The entire Zelzal upgrade project set by Hizballah would require a total of $140 million.
29 thoughts on “Hizballah’s missile precision crash project slowed. 250 upgraded out of 14,000”
Netanyahu’s Spree – his foolproof ‘Raising Arizona’ retirement plan
Netanyahu’s now desperate open full court press for war on Iran prior to his incoming indictments by both Mandelblit (within days to 1 week, according to Israeli sources) and Mueller (over his conspiracy with Kushner over UN 2334 and Zamel/PsyGroup rigging of the 2016 election) has reached fever pitch as Netanyahu thinks his only way out is war, and war now
Netanyahu is right on that point, that WAS the only way left he was going to survive, and that’s what the history books will record, as the Israeli train crash proceeds apace with him sitting on the cow-catcher at the front cheering it on.
Netanyahu’s spree was going to get him fixed for life, one way or the other. Brilliant!
Guilani, Richard Engel, Bolton, Pompeo, Pence and the whole Kahanist network is at fever pitch. Nobody took Netanyahu’s bait and now he’s just gonna have to jump in the lake and go after the fish barehanded, like Golem going after a trout
‘Precious, my precious is slipping away!’ Splash!
14000 missiles? Missiles Which are 16 meter long? Wonderful
I think air raids against iran positions in syria is a big misunderstanding about choosing targets to hit
Any missile fired by Iran and or Hisbullah to Israel should be met with destroying the launchers in syria or lebanon, but also a missile launch against Iran proper. The people in IOran must feel the same pain ISraelis do. when that happens, the Iranian people with cut the throats of those who cause them pain (mad mullahs)
Agree.And now is the time for that.DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THOSE MISSILES BECOME PRECISE.
Sort of like FDR faking Hitler to get re-elected in 1940!
Still hoping for Mueller to pull the globalists from the grave? LOL
oh, yeah, and also Iranian infantry is on Israel’s border.
iranian infantry are some of the best shahids in the world, and they even come conveniently pre-wrapped in white, to save funeral costs. just ask the iraqis.
enough conspiracy theories. whatever your name is. each time it changes from one female’s name to another. you must be a gay guy masquerading as a woman. not only conflicted in your thinking but also in your personality. cannot decide what or who you are…
Since this is a totally intolerable situation, everything should be done to destroy this threat. Hold a nuke over their heads if they dare to even threaten us with these. Everyone uses their best and strongest weapon against their enemy. Only Israel is thinking of using matching weapons so that this madness keeps continuing until the enemy eventually gets a chance to get a bigger and stronger weapon to kill us all. Israel has to rediscover its winner mentality back or else it will keep on losing. They should issue an ultimatum to Lebanon and company just like Kennedy did with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Get rid of these Hezbollah missiles or else they will be nuked. That is enough to get everyone’s serious attention on this serious issue.
idiots …if nuke is used in Lebanon do you think israel will not be contaminated ??? we have the geographical depth to survive , tell me rat …how you will manage
no, the wind pattern means that using small nukes the fallout would go northeast. israel could nuke lebanon if necessary.
I am not too sure nuking Lebanon or Syria is a good idea no matter if the nukes are low yield radiation.Conventional bombardments should be enough.And only if Lebanon attacks Israel.A lot of innocent Lebanese will die.With Iran, Israel should dish out all the pain it can to the Iranian theocracy.Hopefully destroy all their military installations and centers of power.With Iran the possibility of using nukes cannot be ruled out.
Agree, why use Nukes on Kooks when Conventional Weapons have proven they can’t defend themselves against them either. The only thing to target is the Small Band Clan of Leadership and once they go, the rest will seek Peace just to survive, many will turn on their Leaders as well just like what happen to Arab Spring Leaders whose reigns were brought down from their own People.
The Nuclear sword above Lebanon’s head is the best solution. The Nuclear ultimatum to remove the terrorist group that Lebanon allowed into their country have to go and go now. The USA will answer the call for help if Lebanon wants to retain their national sovereignty and not re-enter the stone age. Call on Russia and Lebanon dies a slow painful death as the Russians will never let go of your gas fields
yeah yeah yeah….. blah blah blah. stupid extremist. we are all frustrated by these reactions to terrorism, however the “nuke” is not the answer. As it is 80% of the world is against us and it would only take one nuke for the rest of the world to be against us, including the USA and that would be the end of Israel and possibly of the Jews worldwide. They would be attacking Jews in every country in the world and nobody would come to our defense. so enough of talking about “Nukes”. After all, Israel may not even have any and is just using the “secrecy” ploy to keep the dogs at bay.
An Electromagnetic bomb will be enough. Israel has great solution that can bring Lebanon back to the Stone Age.
just hide Demona center under ground and remember me when you hear rockets whizzing over your head
The Samson Option and Goliath Stone Throws!
This is my point exactly. Sure Hizballah can hurt Israel if it sends 14,000 Rockets and Missiles against Israel. The attacks will be hurtful but not devastating because Israel will no doubt just survive and then the repercussions upon Hizballah now a formal Army will be a Destiny of Devastation rightly earned, and much like the ISIS Headline below:
“U.S.-backed fighters in Syria are poised to capture Islamic State’s last, tiny enclave on the Euphrates, bringing its self-declared caliphate to the brink of total defeat.”
Once such a War Starts if Hizballah cannot even change their Missiles in Peacetime with efficiency how will that new Hizballah Army be able to change, defend and survive a weeks and months of counterattack, that NATO, Gulf States, America and most of the World will welcome and accept as a Supreme Leader Ayatollah Iranian Shiia Puppet. I do not think the Iranian, Iraqi, Hisballah and Houthis Shiia Regimes have any idea that they do have the Power to make one Strike against Israel, but that won’t be enough, and they just lack the Resources to make any sustain gains to keep Power. Once one goes, the rest will follow. And the Middle East will be better when they are all Out of Power living in Caves to stay alive, juts like what happen to ISIS.
I would hazard to guess that Imam Hussein University in Tehran is a target because they are the source of a big problem…as is the Russian commanders who allow this transfer of technology from far away in Iran to Syria and Lebanon.
much of this is a numbers game. hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 missiles. israel cannot afford to allow that many hits on the country, but it also cannot afford to shoot them down with iron dome – each intercept uses 2 missiles at $25,000 each.
so the first step in any war will be an intense campaign to destroy as many missiles as possible on the ground, and as many launchers as possible.
iron dome probably will run out of interceptors, and the new iron beam system will be deployed, alongside some heavy-duty electronic countermeasures.
israel may or may not suffer serious damage, but the problem is, the iranian mullahs are determined to fight to the very last lebanese. so the real question will be, how to bring the fight, not to iran, but to the regime in tehran.
I Quote /
This must not ever be allowed to happen
Remember Pearl Harbour
The 10-day biennial IDF-US European Command exercise Juniper Falcon ended on Thursday after drilling scenarios that included pro-Iranian forces firing thousands of missiles on Israel from Syria, Lebanon, Iran or Iraq –
ISRAEL YOU MUST STRIKE FIRST !!!.
Be ready you illegal settlers, soon your stolen houses will be on fire and you will know what it’s like to be a Palestinian.
To be a Pal-e-SWINIAN is to be a rabid dog.
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