Israel intel: Iran will have fissile material for a nuke this year, a nuclear-capable missile in two years

The Israeli intelligence 2020 assessment published on Tuesday, Jan 14, estimates that if Iran continues its nuclear program at the present pace, it will have 25 kgs of highly enriched uranium by winter 2020 and a missile capable of carrying a nuclear bomb in two years.

This estimate matches the forecast Israel made five years ago, DEBKAfile’s sources note, when six world powers signed a nuclear accord with Iran for curtailing its development of a nuclear bomb. What happened was that the $150bn reward received by Iran was invested in advanced weapons systems and in establishing paramilitary groups under its control for planting around Israel’s borders.

The assessment released today is hardly compatible with another estimate in the 2020 intelligence paper that rates as low the prospects of war by Israel’s enemies. Does that mean that those enemies, Iran and Hizballah, will hold off until they accumulate a stock of nuclear warheads? The most pressing question is this: What is Israel doing about the advancing nuclear threat?

Its leaders have refrained from publicly discussing the threat since tensions between the US and Iran became critical. Last week, President Donald Trump declared: We will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Twitter: “We know exactly what’s happening with the Iranian nuclear program. Iran thinks it can achieve nuclear weapons. I reiterate: Israel won’t allow Iran to achieve nuclear weapons. I also call on all Western countries to impose snap back sanctions at the UN now.”

He was referring to the decision taken earlier in the day by the UK, France and Germany, co-signatories of the 2015 nuclear accord, to activate the dispute mechanism embodied in that accord after repeated Iranian breaches.

This process is long and cumbersome. Hence Netanyahu’s impatient demand. Complaints are first referred to a Joint Commission, then to the foreign ministers, and finally to the UN Security Council, with long pauses in between. For Iran’s non-compliance with its obligations, a vote could “snap back” the international and multilateral sanctions lifted under the accord.

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80 thoughts on “Israel intel: Iran will have fissile material for a nuke this year, a nuclear-capable missile in two years

  • Jan 14, 2020 @ 22:37 at 22:37

    Talking, talking, talking and talking, but war is coming, maybe the end of the world.
    God knows.
    Its all told in The Bible.

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:23 at 9:23

        mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi ve diğer mollaları öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

      • Jan 27, 2020 @ 14:33 at 14:33

        So it will be our Jewish Messiah (Christian antiChrist) against Muslim Messiah (Mahdi).
        I remember reading 15 years ago that Iran was only 1 year away from making a nuke.

    • Jan 14, 2020 @ 23:46 at 23:46

      it seems distance between iran and bomb is longer than when they didn’t have any nuclear facilities at all. Nice estimation from israel intelligences.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:20 at 2:20

      The Iranian Protesters will Prevail & Prevent the Nukes being Developed to Rebuild Persia & Sign a King Cyrus-Solomon Wisdom Peace Treaty with Israel. The Shiia Regime will be Executed & Families Remainder Exiled!

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 7:52 at 7:52

        I hope you are right.

        • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:31 at 9:31

          mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 3:14 at 3:14

      In 2 years there might not be Israel and their moron intelligence . They should not have killed Soleimani and those on Ukrainian liner , since its bad idea was to do both. Bibi is dislocated from reality together with his shin-bet , shin fck bet.

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 5:08 at 5:08

        Cállate estúpido, tarado mental

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 8:08 at 8:08

        Iran is pushing the limits.
        Better for all to take Bibi’s words very seriously.

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 14:25 at 14:25

        Tu eres loco en la cabeza

      • Jan 16, 2020 @ 16:35 at 16:35

        Agreed – there may not be in Israel unless we take immediate action and Nuke Iran before they get the bomb and do what they say they want to do. We have to be brave and know that even though this may be one of the greatest Holocausts (and I don’t say that lightly) in world history that we are doing the right thing and what we have to do. If we don’t they will surly have no mercy on us.

      • Jan 19, 2020 @ 6:12 at 6:12

        what a stupid comment!!!! iran admitted downing of the ukreanean plane and you say israel did it!!!!! it is typical muslim way of changing facts. who told you that?!!!

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:19 at 9:19

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi ve diğer mollaları öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:20 at 9:20

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi ve diğer mollaları öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:21 at 9:21

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi ve diğer mollaları öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:25 at 9:25

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

      • Jan 18, 2020 @ 20:42 at 20:42

        Iran does not need a nuke nor does it want one. Turkey on the other hand wants many. When Turkey is ready Iran and Turkey will attack. All of the bottle rockets neing fired from the Gaza strip are test against the Iron dome.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:29 at 9:29

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 17:46 at 17:46

      The end of Israel perhaps? But the human primates will continue. Sorry to break it to you but you’re not that important.

      • Jan 16, 2020 @ 7:27 at 7:27

        Vladimir you are funny! Why would anyone care what you think? You are just a name on a post.

  • Jan 14, 2020 @ 22:48 at 22:48

    The Persian People has lost the respect of the Iranian Regime! The the Iranian Regime is founder of the IRGC Republic better known under the nom de guerre Islamic Republic of Iran.

    The IRGC Republic is the most advanced form of Islamic democracy and the best ever type of society.
    People who do not love the Iranian regime are enemies of the people of Iran and deserve to die.

    Now the people of Iran start to murmur against the Iranian regime? We reject such behavior, they have lost the respect of the Iranian Regime and deserve to die. They are millions, but the regime has IRGC security battalions just for such traitors ™️.

    Iranian people deserve to die by the hand of security IRGC™️.

    Once having the bomb in hand, who’s the best to experiment i ont, if not the disrespectful Iranian people.?

    • Jan 14, 2020 @ 23:16 at 23:16

      Are you drunk or something dude?

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 20:42 at 20:42

        @ Abe. Readers have suffered the comments by Tommy for the last few months. He is significantly devoid of logic, history, geo-politics, military strategy and tactics and makes up stuff as he goes along. He has little self-insight and is a besserwisser who nevertheless can contradict himself and is 100% partisan friendly towards any nation or individual who supports the enemies of the US and the West and Israel. You are right to question his use of alcohol or something else. It is possible he is on meds but is allowed to shill here on this site because it suits his masters. But if his masters knew that what he write merely turns readers off him and who is is rooting for they would get rid of him.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:32 at 9:32

      mossada söyleyin iran dini lideri hamaneyi öldürün sonra iran halkını ülke geneli ayaklandırıp iran molla rejimini yıkın

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 12:18 at 12:18

      Great sarcasm and social commentary on the Iranian oppressors!

      But I’ve begun to worry that there may be some who actually think that way.

  • Jan 14, 2020 @ 23:31 at 23:31

    Bibi is going to have to recycle that flip chart he used at the UN to make the same pitch about Saddam way back in the day. No matter, there are plenty of stupid evangelicals who can’t wait to die for greater israel and goy leaders like Hagee are even leading their followers to PRAY for a nuclear war to die in.

    So, no worries for Israel. Just as soon as the fireworks begin, Bibi can tell the Knesset that it strictly a matter between the americans and iran and israel must stay out of it … after all, it’s only troubles among the goyim.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:14 at 11:14

      “… after all, it’s only troubles among the goyim.”

      Such an illogical comment, totally divorced from reality, “BallBusterBetty”. That name you hide behind makes “Rosie the Riveter” sound tame, but at least Rosie was patriotic and accomplished something and when she spoke, everything was logical and made sense as in total contrast to your post.

  • Jan 14, 2020 @ 23:46 at 23:46

    Of course…

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 0:05 at 0:05


  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 0:31 at 0:31

    This is just a standard Jews in Danger, holocaust mk2 made up hoax that Israel has been running for almost 15 years now. We all remember Bibi and Iraq’s WMD fantasy, or the BS about Iran that followed. Why should we believe you now when you have attempted to deceive us for so long? If anything it could even be good for the region if Iran had the means to counter Zionist aggression.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:19 at 11:19

      Good old ?Tommy?, still upset because the side he supported LOST WWII !
      Just so obvious from all of his posts!

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 1:27 at 1:27

    old fake
    Iran will have nuke in 2 years
    the Zionists saying it since 1990

    rember one imprtant fact
    Jews are always lying

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:08 at 2:08


    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:14 at 2:14

      Zionists will Reserve the Right To Defend by way of Presumptive Nuclear Strikes to End Shiia Regime!

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:19 at 2:19

        be carew ful what you say jewish fool
        preemptive nuke streik
        to destroy Iran you need 10-20 Nukes
        to destroy Israel only 1/2 Nuke needed

        • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:28 at 11:28

          “to destroy Iran you need 10-20 Nukes
          to destroy Israel only 1/2 Nuke needed”


          To destroy “Palestine”, you need zero nukes: why?…………………….because “Palestine” doesn’t exist and NEVER DID!

        • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:42 at 11:42

          Also, nothing mutual, since shtskns, we should never forget, (although we are constantly reminded), have no respect for their lives

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 17:49 at 17:49

      Jews are born liars…

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 18:16 at 18:16


      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 20:46 at 20:46

        @Vivian. Another racist, anti-semite. Your kind were hanged after WWII. It will happen again.

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 1:52 at 1:52

    Other then the mentally ill, usual psychos on this site:
    The self-appointed ayatollah “rulers” of the once great, ancient Iranian nation will be hanged, upside down —
    by their own : just like the Italian people hanged their own, hated brutal dictator Mussolini, in the spring 1945.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:09 at 2:09


  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 2:11 at 2:11

    Good Arabia will have Nukes the Same Day & Missiles capable of hitting Tehran In One Day More, as Purchased from America, or China, or Russia or India or UK or Pakistan!

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 3:46 at 3:46

    know your enemy :
    “the 150bn $ gift of the democRAT former prez BHO
    pushed the weapons prog of the medieval nazi dictators in teheran….
    today the democRAT pelossi & pals want to take out prez Trump
    who is fighting the medieval nazi dictators in teheran who kill US soldiers + iranian civilians + jews…
    The blind, stupid, Jew-hating western world+their gov + media is committing suicide !
    know thy ememy : the democRATS, the liberals, the leftists, its them who support those (iranian medieval nazi dictators) who want to destroy the western civilisation…


  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 3:58 at 3:58

    what would you do if you were a medieval iranian nazi dictator and a secret muslim US prez (barak hussein opama) makes you a 150bn $ gift?
    You buy a couple of nukes from
    pakistan or a frmer soviet republic
    the you psh your own nuclear programm….
    why do you think the medieval nazi dictators in teheran are talking + acting so bold+ arrogant ? i guess coz they already have couple of nukes + threaten the crazy/suicidal western world…

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 4:41 at 4:41

      You Zionists can’t ever speak the truth, as Christ says you Jews take after your father the ?D E V I L? and the Christian Zionists seem to have been affected as well. The 150Bil was always Iranian money that the US took and many decades later returned to Iran. So unless taken other people’s property is ok (we have a name for that, T H E F T) why dont you go worth your ?father? like the ?Ziotrash?

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:21 at 11:21

        Good old ?Tommy?, still upset because the side he supported LOST WWII !
        Just so obvious from all of his posts!

        • Jan 15, 2020 @ 14:29 at 14:29

          No what is obvious is that you need to play the antisemitic trope as a eay of controlling the narrative. Israeli Minister “We always use the anti-Semitism trick or bring up the Holocaust”

          • Jan 15, 2020 @ 18:17 at 18:17


      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 11:48 at 11:48

        “———————your father the ?D E V I L?——————-”

        @ ?Tommy?,

        It’s sort of funny (or maybe not so funny) you should mention that as, from reading your posts, I sort of wonder what “religion” you practice……………………must be something W–A–Y out there, or maybe nothing at all as to be expected from a conspiracy theorist.

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 12:36 at 12:36

        Hey, Tommy, get some help, dude, you are one hateful antisemite on the brink of doing something violent. I am from a known government terror investigation unit and so I know all the signs and your coordinates.

      • Jan 15, 2020 @ 21:05 at 21:05

        @Tommy. Once again reading the Bible as the Devil does, eh? Now we know who Tommy is working for. Jesus was accusing a particular sect, not all Jews. He was himself a Jew. Grow up.

        You are playing with fire. Here is what God will do to you when you get together with a few other nations and attack Israel. He is going to teach you a terrible lesson. God uses the name Gog for the leader of the armies that will come against Israel. God is talking to his prophet Ezekiel about what he will do with the attackers. This prophecy has never yet been fulfilled, unlike many others, and it is in line to be fulfilled now in the Last Days. It was prophesied in about 500 BC, 1200 years before your fake prophet and the fake book ever existed. Verses16 and 17 below start with how God will address Gog directly, to give him the idea to attack Israel. Thereafter He resumes talking to Ezekiel.

        Ezekiel 38: 16-23 New International Version (NIV)
        16 You will advance against my people Israel like a cloud that covers the land. In days to come, Gog, I will bring you against my land, so that the nations may know me when I am proved holy through you before their eyes.

        17 “‘This is what the Sovereign Lord says: You are the one I spoke of in former days by my servants the prophets of Israel. At that time they prophesied for years that I would bring you against them.

        18 This is what will happen in that day: When Gog attacks the land of Israel, my hot anger will be aroused, declares the Sovereign Lord. 19 In my zeal and fiery wrath I declare that at that time there shall be a great earthquake in the land of Israel. 20 The fish in the sea, the birds in the sky, the beasts of the field, every creature that moves along the ground, and all the people on the face of the earth will tremble at my presence. The mountains will be overturned, the cliffs will crumble and every wall will fall to the ground. 21 I will summon a sword against Gog on all my mountains, declares the Sovereign Lord. Every man’s sword will be against his brother. 22 I will execute judgment on him with plague and bloodshed; I will pour down torrents of rain, hailstones and burning sulfur on him and on his troops and on the many nations with him. 23 And so I will show my greatness and my holiness, and I will make myself known in the sight of many nations. Then they will know that I am the Lord.’

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 6:04 at 6:04

      Time for Jews to REMEMBER Torat Moshe.
      God promises amazing miraculous victories for demonstrating that HE is OUR BOSS and not our suicidal psychotic egos.
      Our history of not following the WRITTEN Torah has been horrific. All the rabbinic intentions of keeping us safe have failed.
      The addition and subtraction of written Torah is prohibited in Deuteronomy 4:2; 13:1; 28:14; 28:58; Joshua 23:6. This was the sin of Adam. He – it was who – told Eve not to touch. Eve wasn’t present yet when God gave Adam the command not to eat of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil.

      Today, after a history of ALL religions predicated on this sin of our common father Adam, having led us on a detour from God’s will and His blessings; it is a strategic military imperative to finally make the “tikkun of Adam” and return to God as righteous, wholehearted brothers and sisters serving God and His agenda as it is in the written Torah.

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 8:57 at 8:57

    Much work ahead for the IDF.Talks / sanctions won”t solve this.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:33 at 9:33

      @StrikeEagle… Correct, But Mideast in Atomic Ashes won’t help Shiia Caliphate either!

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 9:50 at 9:50

    America has figured out how to stop Iran March to Nukes. Target Leadership, IRGC, & Proxies Servants, Arm Protesters & End Oil & Nuke Facilities that will take Years to Rebuild! Iran Leaders just Bleed & Can’t Respond!

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 13:50 at 13:50

    With 52 ballistic nuclear missiles Trump can put Iran to ashes. If an Iranian dies when fighting non-muslim in a war which thry called cihad, they are going to heaven according to their beliefs. So nuclear bombs make them go to heaven. Their ultimate goal is to go heaven. Nuclear bombs make both Us, Israel and Iran happy

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 14:20 at 14:20

      Two surprise existential votes have Netanyahu both furious and terrified –

      The first is the the Knesset House Committee vote to green light prosecution of Netanyahu before the March 2 elections Surprise! Snap! Fury! Fear! Confusion!

      The second existential surprise is the American Senate vote to stop his ‘Netanyahu-Neocon war on Iran’
      Surprise! Snap! Fury! Fear! Confusion!

      Senators Rand Paul Michael Lee and Susan Collins are leading the revolution against Netanyahu and the Neocons for the Republicans

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 15:13 at 15:13

    The way you spread your legs for all comers?

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 17:02 at 17:02

    Truthfully I don’t think it would take Iran until the end of 2020 to have enough fissionable material to build a bomb. They can just buy one from Kim in the North Korean; he could use the cash!

    • Jan 16, 2020 @ 1:16 at 1:16


  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 19:28 at 19:28

    To Debka-file: despite your “barred” warning, Have never seen so many “inciting, libel or offensive” posts on any other Internet News-site…! Considering quitting this site altogether…!

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 19:49 at 19:49

      who is this JIM CARROL? Does anybody have his personal info? He should be in jail and work on that is already underway.

    • Jan 15, 2020 @ 20:29 at 20:29

      I QUIT !!!

  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 20:30 at 20:30


  • Jan 15, 2020 @ 22:49 at 22:49

    Message from Comandante en jefe Fidel Castro Ruz against nuclear war

    The use of nuclear weapons in a new war would mean the end of humanity. This was foreseen by scientist Albert Einstein, who was able to measure their destructive capacity to produce heat of millions of degrees that would vaporize everything within a wide radius of impact. The brilliant researcher was the driving force behind the development of this weapon, before it was available to the genocidal Nazi regime.

    All the world’s governments are obliged to respect the right to life of all nations and all peoples on the planet.

    ********** Today there is an imminent danger of war with the use of such weapons, and I have no doubt that an attack by the United States and Israel on the Islamic Republic of Iran would inevitably become a global nuclear conflict. ******

    It is the duty of peoples to demand their right to live from political leaders. When the lives of the species, the people and their most loved ones are in such danger, no one can afford to be indifferent, nor can a minute be wasted in demanding respect for that right; tomorrow will be too late.

    Albert Einstein himself said: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” We know what he meant, and he was absolutely right, only that there would no longer be anyone to use sticks or stones.

    There may be collateral damage, U.S. political and military leaders always say, to justify the death of innocent people.

    In a nuclear war, the collateral damage would be human life.

    Let us have the courage to proclaim that all nuclear and conventional weapons, everything that serves to wage war, must disappear!

    Fidel Castro Ruz

    October 15, 2010

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 0:34 at 0:34

    Our ayatolla is so dumb we actually call him Potato Awesome.

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 0:59 at 0:59

    Our ayatolla is such a clown, we will laugh at his decisions as long as 100 years from now

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 1:03 at 1:03

    Our ayatolla is such a climate savior, he exports oil by tea-spoons.

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 1:33 at 1:33

    Our ayatolla once googled “Nobel prize for black boxes” twice that day.

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 6:10 at 6:10

    Iranian already have something more dangerous than nuke missile and bomb. This is the main reason for Israeli and U.S. failure during this 40 years.

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 6:50 at 6:50

    I have always tried to affect Arab people by my post in twitter, but you know, We (jewish and u.s.) have already received to end. No plan and no way to flee for us.

  • Jan 16, 2020 @ 8:15 at 8:15

    time to do some landscape work and some carpet cleaning and get rid of them pesky voles and mole that have tunnels running all over but we’ve got the solution and it’s that simple…don’t waste time on them other gimmicks you are it right the first time…like that McCain(traitor) once said on tv “bomb bomb bomb bomb iran” he didn’t learn anything in his ordeal as a pow(not a hero) injured by ejection not the nva…shoulda had his safety belts on correctly..Kharma…eye-a-tolla…(last gasp) even his subjects are rising up..thank to Trump..only real president in 20 years…america first and that means Israel is our close ally not as some congress women would describe as being “squatter’s” on palestinian lands and they are know as the “squad” what a joke I call ’em squatter’s because thats what they are, they hate american values and esp. Israel

  • Jan 17, 2020 @ 2:55 at 2:55

    I worked in the nuclear weapons circle and unfortunately iran already has a hand full of atomic bombs and probably a few hydrogen weapons. They are already mocked up for their ICBM’s. It is the full weaponization of their various branches of military they don’t have supplied yet. They need around 200 nukes to be viable.

  • Jan 17, 2020 @ 15:51 at 15:51


  • Jan 19, 2020 @ 1:20 at 1:20

    Instead of predicting The Armageddon focus we should focus on finding FAIR solutions to the predicament we ALL are in.

    Egging powers with destructive weapons to wage war will not get us anywhere except definite annihilation.

    Over the years I’ve only noticed a few decent comments or ideas to resolve the situation in M.E.

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